Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[dha]

I don't trust anyone's guts as much as I trust Elon and what my logic tells me--HOLD and BUY on dips...

Amen to that.

 

[RobStark]

 

[jhm]

I love the graphic. I've posted the slogan several times, but it is nice to see it in Tesla red.

I believe the sentiment today is, we're in it for the long haul. I keep my eye on 2025. The stock can keep growing 30% per year for the next ten years. I like that the hype is driven away so we can accumulate with confidence. We don't need the hype. We need patience. Remember that you are truly investing in a company that is changing the landscape of energy and transportation.

 

[eepic]

I've not see anyone on here be of the 'head-in-the-sand' type. At all. Not even a little.

Balanced, informed discussion is not measured by the amount of positive news items being equal to the amount of negative news items. Not even close. The balanced, informed discussion about China layoffs/resignations/firings is that they are OLD news having begun when Wu was forced to resign and coming to a close now and somewhere around 30% of the Chinese division. Period, end of story. Elon already addressed China problems in the last CC. It's done, it's over, it's corrected and Tesla is already moving forward in China to finish undoing the damage. Elon also gave guidance when he felt the situation would be entirely rectified.

I'm not suggesting balanced means equal positive and negative news, but rather there are no demeaning responses to someone who views a piece of news negatively (with reason).

We just learned of the magnitude of the China restructuring and 180/600 could be higher or lower than some of us expected, so someone ought to be able to view it negatively without being attacked. We analyze and discuss *every* piece of incremental positive news here even if it was implied by something mentioned before, so why don't we allow the flip side to be true if it's truly a balanced discussion?

Again, I agree with you with regards to this week's China news not being a bad thing and apologies I had replied to your post in particular. I was more aiming this towards all the others who have unfairly criticized maoing in recent months.

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The TMC sentiment indicator worked really well in the past, when novices were buying LEAPS for the first time or when fear was rampant after the fires many pointed out the extremes & mid term turning points soon followed, so its something I try to gauge & trade.

Some observations of mine but unfortunantly no conclusions as far as sentiment goes.
1. Long time contributers who were mostly bulls no longer post here, did they cash out or just staying silent I don't know.
2. The use of the label "FUD" is at a all time high, TSLA has had larger corrections but I don't remember FUD being thrown around this much, is the frustration higher now? Is it because some of these investors missed out on the big run & bought near the highs? Maybe some is fair but its used in every other post it seems.

Wheres 8 Ball when you need him?

Well, one way of confirming there's a ton of FUD being spun by the media is that Elon has had to come out a few times to rebutt it directly in recent times.

 

[Drax7]

I saw my apple shares tumble from $700 to $400 and held to eventually sell most above $900.
for the sake of argument , 4/7 of $290 is about $166.

Given my expectations that's a price to load the boat, though obviously
there is no rationale to assure that. Apple had all the cash in the world and a single
digit p/e.

 

[aznt1217]

My portfolio looks like the canadian rockies haha. Trading with the market atm.

 

[FluxCap]

I'm fairly convinced a lot of the past few days' downward pressure on TSLA is not TSLA-specific, but market-wide forces. QQQ and SPY taking a beating with dollar strength, and we are going along for the ride. It was a perfect time for a bear assault.

Lump, wish I hadn't overestimated the market's vision and followed your trade. Ah well, such is the great game of trading.

 

[FluxCap]

Wow, big pop -- what just happened?

 

[TSLAopt]

Wow, big pop -- what just happened?

# of buyers + shorts covering

is now greater than

# of weak longs who sell on FUD + new shorts coming in


not sure which item of the 4 items above has changed the most but my hope is the number of weak longs selling from FUD has been exhausted so we can start a new cycle of stock appreciation

 

[FredTMC]

Wow, big pop -- what just happened?

I see no news... I like this strength on an otherwise hideous day

 

[uselesslogin]

Wow, big pop -- what just happened?

A bought a couple more calls so my position would be an even number now.

 

[jhm]

BFPT

Just a little update on Blind Faith Price Targets... Current assumptions include $6B this year, 50% growth til 2025, 10% margin, 20 p/e, $692B market cap in 2025, 4% annual dilution, 185M shares in 2025, all leading to $3740 per share by the end of 2025.

At $189/shr today, we have a 52-week low in sentiment, 31.77% implied discount on the 2025 target. Median sentiment over the last year is 28.01% implied discount. If we were at median sentiment today, the price would be $259. So we have about $70 in upside based simply on sentiment returning to median. The 25th pecentile, implied discount is 29.14% which would correspond to a price today of $235. So even a moderate improvement in sentiment has significant upside.

Looking forward to end of 2015 BFPT, I get a most bearish (minimum) $236, bearish (first quartile) $289, neutral (median) $316, and bullish (third quartile, 27.18% implied discount) $337.

Of couse, it is entirely possible that the market continues to become more bearish on Tesla and implied discount goes even higher. My BGPTs are simply calibrated to the most recent year of trading. Personally I think sentiment will improve over the long run, but short term trading is all about guessing at near term changes in sentiment. Good luck.

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It seems sentiment improved even as I wrote my last post.

 

[Lump]

Lump, wish I hadn't overestimated the market's vision and followed your trade. Ah well, such is the great game of trading.

Rally began moments after Fluxcap's posting, he jinxed me :wink:.

 

[Causalien]

I was buying. Still have half of the cash undeployed.

*edit just revenge buy. No logic in it.

 

[Newb]

The short term is a gamble. My short term gambles seldom exceed 5% of my TSLA holdings. I'm thinking Q1 ER provides a chance of a reasonable return, though, because:
[...]
* The lead-in to an ER typically provides a nice boost to the stock price, up until about 1-3 days before the ER
* The Q1 ER could easily be a beat, since the target for the quarter was set fairly low, Q4 brings in lots of delayed deliveries, and the dock strike has been settled, not to mention statements from James, Kallo, and Jonas.

I agree that lead-in to Q1 results will boost the stock price, but I'm not sure about the beat. Well, we'll see. But I'd argue that the advocates of uncertainty and doubt will continue to attract listeners until Model X roll-out and production ramp-up is actually happening and order books are exploding. Overwhelming demand for Model X (and execution on the roll-out and ramp-up) will confirm that valuation around 40-50 billion usd is justified, even to the sceptics, ignorants and the blind. Then, it will be just silly, even in "their" eyes, not to invest in Tesla. If I was playing with options, I'd wait for the 160s/170s and then get some November calls.

EDIT: And of course, please don't trust my gut!

 

[Thumper]

Not sure how this could happen. How can a 5 year old step on the brake and move the shift lever at the same time? Why is display car moveable? Why is a display car in creep mode? Five-year old Kid starts Tesla Model S in a shopping mall in China, hits a baby | CarNewsChina.com - China Auto News

 

[Papafox]

I agree that lead-in to Q1 results will boost the stock price, but I'm not sure about the beat. Well, we'll see. But I'd argue that the advocates of uncertainty and doubt will continue to attract listeners until Model X roll-out and production ramp-up is actually happening and order books are exploding. Overwhelming demand for Model X (and execution on the roll-out and ramp-up) will confirm that valuation around 40-50 billion usd is justified, even to the sceptics, ignorants and the blind. Then, it will be just silly, even in "their" eyes, not to invest in Tesla. If I was playing with options, I'd wait for the 160s/170s and then get some November calls.

EDIT: And of course, please don't trust my gut!

A November call holds considerably more promise than a June call, because you not only have more quarterly reports during that time frame, you also have the Model X reveal. I wish November calls were an option at this point.

 

[everman]

Just a little update on Blind Faith Price Targets... Current assumptions include $6B this year, 50% growth til 2025, 10% margin, 20 p/e, $692B market cap in 2025, 4% annual dilution, 185M shares in 2025, all leading to $3740 per share by the end of 2025.

At $189/shr today, we have a 52-week low in sentiment, 31.77% implied discount on the 2025 target. Median sentiment over the last year is 28.01% implied discount. If we were at median sentiment today, the price would be $259. So we have about $70 in upside based simply on sentiment returning to median. The 25th pecentile, implied discount is 29.14% which would correspond to a price today of $235. So even a moderate improvement in sentiment has significant upside.

Looking forward to end of 2015 BFPT, I get a most bearish (minimum) $236, bearish (first quartile) $289, neutral (median) $316, and bullish (third quartile, 27.18% implied discount) $337.

Of couse, it is entirely possible that the market continues to become more bearish on Tesla and implied discount goes even higher. My BGPTs are simply calibrated to the most recent year of trading. Personally I think sentiment will improve over the long run, but short term trading is all about guessing at near term changes in sentiment. Good luck.

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It seems sentiment improved even as I wrote my last post.

I love these BFPT updates JHM. This is a great way to measure the expected results of Tesla following the plan. All that's needed is a little faith. Keep 'em coming!

 

[Curt Renz]

The early part of today's Tesla presentation at the Roth Conference has covered the potential of the Gigafactory: http://seekingalpha.com/news/235805...87v:0c195ebf5b834089409a8699b7eea6e9&uprof=46

 

[eepic]

The early part of today's Tesla presentation at the Roth Conference has covered the potential of the Gigafactory: http://seekingalpha.com/news/235805...87v:0c195ebf5b834089409a8699b7eea6e9&uprof=46

Anyone watching the webcast want to give us a breakdown? I'm wondering if it's echoing the high level of JB's energy presentation last year.

http://www.wsw.com/webcast/roth29/