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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
jhm
Well-Known Member
I love the graphic. I've posted the slogan several times, but it is nice to see it in Tesla red.
I believe the sentiment today is, we're in it for the long haul. I keep my eye on 2025. The stock can keep growing 30% per year for the next ten years. I like that the hype is driven away so we can accumulate with confidence. We don't need the hype. We need patience. Remember that you are truly investing in a company that is changing the landscape of energy and transportation.
I believe the sentiment today is, we're in it for the long haul. I keep my eye on 2025. The stock can keep growing 30% per year for the next ten years. I like that the hype is driven away so we can accumulate with confidence. We don't need the hype. We need patience. Remember that you are truly investing in a company that is changing the landscape of energy and transportation.
I'm not suggesting balanced means equal positive and negative news, but rather there are no demeaning responses to someone who views a piece of news negatively (with reason).
We just learned of the magnitude of the China restructuring and 180/600 could be higher or lower than some of us expected, so someone ought to be able to view it negatively without being attacked. We analyze and discuss *every* piece of incremental positive news here even if it was implied by something mentioned before, so why don't we allow the flip side to be true if it's truly a balanced discussion?
Again, I agree with you with regards to this week's China news not being a bad thing and apologies I had replied to your post in particular. I was more aiming this towards all the others who have unfairly criticized maoing in recent months.
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Well, one way of confirming there's a ton of FUD being spun by the media is that Elon has had to come out a few times to rebutt it directly in recent times.
I saw my apple shares tumble from $700 to $400 and held to eventually sell most above $900.
for the sake of argument , 4/7 of $290 is about $166.
Given my expectations that's a price to load the boat, though obviously
there is no rationale to assure that. Apple had all the cash in the world and a single
digit p/e.
for the sake of argument , 4/7 of $290 is about $166.
Given my expectations that's a price to load the boat, though obviously
there is no rationale to assure that. Apple had all the cash in the world and a single
digit p/e.
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I'm fairly convinced a lot of the past few days' downward pressure on TSLA is not TSLA-specific, but market-wide forces. QQQ and SPY taking a beating with dollar strength, and we are going along for the ride. It was a perfect time for a bear assault.
Lump, wish I hadn't overestimated the market's vision and followed your trade. Ah well, such is the great game of trading.
Lump, wish I hadn't overestimated the market's vision and followed your trade. Ah well, such is the great game of trading.
# of buyers + shorts covering
is now greater than
# of weak longs who sell on FUD + new shorts coming in
not sure which item of the 4 items above has changed the most but my hope is the number of weak longs selling from FUD has been exhausted so we can start a new cycle of stock appreciation
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
jhm
Well-Known Member
BFPT
Just a little update on Blind Faith Price Targets... Current assumptions include $6B this year, 50% growth til 2025, 10% margin, 20 p/e, $692B market cap in 2025, 4% annual dilution, 185M shares in 2025, all leading to $3740 per share by the end of 2025.
At $189/shr today, we have a 52-week low in sentiment, 31.77% implied discount on the 2025 target. Median sentiment over the last year is 28.01% implied discount. If we were at median sentiment today, the price would be $259. So we have about $70 in upside based simply on sentiment returning to median. The 25th pecentile, implied discount is 29.14% which would correspond to a price today of $235. So even a moderate improvement in sentiment has significant upside.
Looking forward to end of 2015 BFPT, I get a most bearish (minimum) $236, bearish (first quartile) $289, neutral (median) $316, and bullish (third quartile, 27.18% implied discount) $337.
Of couse, it is entirely possible that the market continues to become more bearish on Tesla and implied discount goes even higher. My BGPTs are simply calibrated to the most recent year of trading. Personally I think sentiment will improve over the long run, but short term trading is all about guessing at near term changes in sentiment. Good luck.
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It seems sentiment improved even as I wrote my last post.
Just a little update on Blind Faith Price Targets... Current assumptions include $6B this year, 50% growth til 2025, 10% margin, 20 p/e, $692B market cap in 2025, 4% annual dilution, 185M shares in 2025, all leading to $3740 per share by the end of 2025.
At $189/shr today, we have a 52-week low in sentiment, 31.77% implied discount on the 2025 target. Median sentiment over the last year is 28.01% implied discount. If we were at median sentiment today, the price would be $259. So we have about $70 in upside based simply on sentiment returning to median. The 25th pecentile, implied discount is 29.14% which would correspond to a price today of $235. So even a moderate improvement in sentiment has significant upside.
Looking forward to end of 2015 BFPT, I get a most bearish (minimum) $236, bearish (first quartile) $289, neutral (median) $316, and bullish (third quartile, 27.18% implied discount) $337.
Of couse, it is entirely possible that the market continues to become more bearish on Tesla and implied discount goes even higher. My BGPTs are simply calibrated to the most recent year of trading. Personally I think sentiment will improve over the long run, but short term trading is all about guessing at near term changes in sentiment. Good luck.
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It seems sentiment improved even as I wrote my last post.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
I was buying. Still have half of the cash undeployed.
*edit just revenge buy. No logic in it.
*edit just revenge buy. No logic in it.
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I agree that lead-in to Q1 results will boost the stock price, but I'm not sure about the beat. Well, we'll see. But I'd argue that the advocates of uncertainty and doubt will continue to attract listeners until Model X roll-out and production ramp-up is actually happening and order books are exploding. Overwhelming demand for Model X (and execution on the roll-out and ramp-up) will confirm that valuation around 40-50 billion usd is justified, even to the sceptics, ignorants and the blind. Then, it will be just silly, even in "their" eyes, not to invest in Tesla. If I was playing with options, I'd wait for the 160s/170s and then get some November calls.
EDIT: And of course, please don't trust my gut!
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Thumper
Active Member
Not sure how this could happen. How can a 5 year old step on the brake and move the shift lever at the same time? Why is display car moveable? Why is a display car in creep mode? Five-year old Kid starts Tesla Model S in a shopping mall in China, hits a baby | CarNewsChina.com - China Auto News
A November call holds considerably more promise than a June call, because you not only have more quarterly reports during that time frame, you also have the Model X reveal. I wish November calls were an option at this point.
Anyone watching the webcast want to give us a breakdown? I'm wondering if it's echoing the high level of JB's energy presentation last year.
http://www.wsw.com/webcast/roth29/
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