Tesla almost sold each and every car they can find at the end of Q3. So, it is possible that they didn't get a chance to fill it up yet as they were already struggling with PD production issues.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Tesla almost sold each and every car they can find at the end of Q3. So, it is possible that they didn't get a chance to fill it up yet as they were already struggling with PD production issues.
I also didnt see many posts by people who bought loaners/test drive unlike previous quarter ends, maybe they sold them October and didnt add that many.
Another explaination is that Elon is preparing a blow out statement that their gross margin was 30%+ in December, selling loaners at discount might have stood in the way
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I also didnt see many posts by people who bought loaners/test drive unlike previous quarter ends, maybe they sold them October and didnt add that many.
Another explaination is that Elon is preparing a blow out statement that their gross margin was 30%+ in December, selling loaners at discount might have stood in the way
Another explaination is that Elon is preparing a blow out statement that their gross margin was 30%+ in December, selling loaners at discount might have stood in the way
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I also didnt see many posts by people who bought loaners/test drive unlike previous quarter ends, maybe they sold them October and didnt add that many.
Another explaination is that Elon is preparing a blow out statement that their gross margin was 30%+ in December, selling loaners at discount might have stood in the way
I haven't followed as closely this quarter, but even if true, it could also be because there are less inventory vehicles available to sell? I recall Elon discussed they cleaned out every last eligible car in Q3. Given it's all production constraints, they may not have had many eligible in Q4 to begin with.
I agree this is quite possible. My only source is forum posts for others who have asked so not very scientific either.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
You have to consider that within the past two days, CNBC, Bloomberg, and BofA/Merrill Lynch all put out FUD regarding Tesla. CNBC's was world-class FUD. This isn't the SA crowd, this is a group of people who command a fair number of investor ears. The criticisms have been weak and fail to persuade informed investors that demand is falling or that production is not going to ramp up, but there are the uniformed investors who can be scared off by such tactics. I see the usual suspects on this forum dishing out FUD as well.
I think we're talking about a few hundred cars that might have been delivered in the final days of 2014 that didn't make it to owners. This number of cars should not be an issue if 2015 guidance is solid, as I expect it to be.
I think we're talking about a few hundred cars that might have been delivered in the final days of 2014 that didn't make it to owners. This number of cars should not be an issue if 2015 guidance is solid, as I expect it to be.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
chickensevil
Active Member
That's a nice big fat hammer for those who care about TA. Could mean a local bottom heading into next week, hopefully that means we go up from here!
TA-wise, maybe YES. But the Q4 delivery number from Netherland and Norway doesn't bode well for Europe. What if the China number not encouraging again?
I suspect the "D" Model S cars will do especially well in Norway and similar climates. No P85Ds were shipped there in Q4 and no regular D cars were shipped anywhere in Q4. Q1 should be a different story. The announcement of D cars could substantially shift orders from one quarter to the next, as I believe we will see. The same is likely true for the Model X Beta reveal, and we may be seeing Tesla holding off its reveal for the same reason.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Merrill Lynch hasn't changed much since the days of the "Great Recession", there's a reason they went bankrupt in the real estate crisis in 2008. Bad decisions, bad management, poor analytical skills... some things will never change.
Just because one owns an institution does not guarantee success in the investment world, 2014 saw a record in investment firms filing chapter 11.
Then it'll be reflected in Q1 ER. It's more appropriate to worry Q4 ER in this short-term thread.
I was in the San Diego store on 12/24 ad they had just sold a loaner/test drive car to a guy who wanted to give it to his wife for Christmas. So they were doing it I guess to a degree.
And BTW, I test drove the P85D while there, it's a leap beyond the S85 and P85 we own. I was honestly quite astonished at how much of an improvement it felt like. Home run car.
Maoing, you were discussing concerns about Norway and Netherland orders, but the factory was producing cars as fast as possible. Therefore, any discussion of demand is a matter that involves future quarters because Tesla is currently quite production constrained. If Elon fields a question during the 4Q ER regarding demand in Norway and the Netherlands, all he has to do is point out that these markets are still strong and will show their strength in upcoming deliveries of D versions. In other words, if a perceived problem is relevant in the short term forum, then a discussion of its solution is as well.
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Well if there was no D, i am not sure if it would be the case, the whole D and Autopilot thing seems extremely rushed, announcement and very short term ability, taking orders into December without proper software or partially seats, they are focused on staying production constrained, so i am not sure if it would still be the case without D. Its the reason i only hold some out of the money long term calls as hedge against risk of missing the train. I think we might see a big slumb between now and end of 2015 as X Ramps up
chickensevil
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If anything the seat issue should point to a stronger than anticipated demand of the P85D. Because they would have contracted a certain number of seats from Recaro and having blown through that supply too quickly would have scrambled to get Recaro to give them more seats as soon as they could. This is what happens when you run things as "just in time", you tend to get burned if you incorrectly anticipate demand.
Bottom line, as much as it would be upsetting to be a customer who got the wrong seats, to me, it seems like the light at the end of the tunnel in all of this is going to be a much higher than anticipated ASP and also hopefully a higher than anticipated GM. Which should make up for any faltering of demand.
Recaro is renowned for delays, especially if the order was placed on short term, they might get some money back from Recaro depending on % of order volume agreed upon as compensation.
How many D do you think they ship in December? My guess is 1500-2000, total 4000-4500.
As for gross margin, i see headwinds due to falling currencies virtually everywhere except switzerland, Norway is down 25%, so Nov/Dec cars (490) were sold at neutral/negative gross margins. Same for rest of Europe (but not as brutal), Japan, Australia and Canada. They also sold old loaners at higher discounts
How many D do you think they ship in December? My guess is 1500-2000, total 4000-4500.
As for gross margin, i see headwinds due to falling currencies virtually everywhere except switzerland, Norway is down 25%, so Nov/Dec cars (490) were sold at neutral/negative gross margins. Same for rest of Europe (but not as brutal), Japan, Australia and Canada. They also sold old loaners at higher discounts
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I thought the issue with Recaro seats was the safety ratings. With the seats the rating was 4.9 and hence Tesla asked to re-engineer them. This was discussed in PD delay thread.
This year, Tesla will have to convince the market by showing that production is consistently raised q over q and test the demand. If they can show it, it will setup a nice time to raise some more money before 2016 starts where the cap ex will be the highest.
This year, Tesla will have to convince the market by showing that production is consistently raised q over q and test the demand. If they can show it, it will setup a nice time to raise some more money before 2016 starts where the cap ex will be the highest.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
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