Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[Johan]

Hey now, you left out DuckDuckGo and Dogpile... Shame on you, shame!

Yeah and I forgot my favorite as I got the internet in 1997: WebCrawler. Also AltaVista deserves and honorable mention.

 

[chickensevil]

Yeah and I forgot my favorite as I got the internet in 1997: WebCrawler. Also AltaVista deserves and honorable mention.

Well, I was thinking about mentioning altavista, but left it out because it doesn't technically exist anymore. (AltaVista just redirects you to yahoo...)

Webcrawler interestingly combines Google and Yahoo into one search.

And if you are coming in from China, you are probably using Baidu.

 

[SBenson]

Google is your friend:

http://maximum-pain.com/options/max-pain/

(unless Bing is your friend 'cause you fell for the whole "Oh look it's a mini computerpad how cute, let's buy one of these SurfacePads for $2000", or yahoo if you're old or ask.com if you're stupid enough not to read the disclaimers during Java installation).

No, Johan is my friend

Thank you!

 

[MartinAustin]

Just touched $250 during pre-market trading.

i.e. someone paid $250 for TSLA... that hasn't happened since November!

 

[Ingenieur]

Anyone already posted that Panasonic has accused Tesla of Marketing Coup regarding the Battery business? Also vow to expand sales outside Japan very quickly, they are selling same systems in Japan for 3 years now acc. to the story:

TESLA AKTIEN News | A1CX3T Nachrichten | US88160R1014
Batterien f vor

 

[Gerasimental]

Anyone already posted that Panasonic has accused Tesla of Marketing Coup regarding the Battery business? Also vow to expand sales outside Japan very quickly, they are selling same systems in Japan for 3 years now acc. to the story:

TESLA AKTIEN News | A1CX3T Nachrichten | US88160R1014
Batterien f vor

Sure are adding fuel to the 'Ingenieur = Realist' narrative.

There is nothing from this article that seems to merit calling it a 'dispute'. Panasonic spokesperson says they've been making similar products for years. That's a fact. Same spokesperson then says that Tesla did a fantastic job of marketing its product. Also fact. Next, Panasonic is planning to expand into non-Japanese markets, including Europe, 'soon'. Fine, we all like some competition and as we know the Powerwall isn't really the big cash cow here. It'll be interesting to see if Panasonic's probable cost advantage (same cell cost as Tesla, minus the margins Tesla is paying Panasonic) outweighs Tesla's brand and marketing advantage. I doubt it.
Panasonic may find it more attractive to focus on supplying cells to Tesla and allowing them to do assembly and distribution of consumer products.

Not sure there's anything to get too excited about here.

 

[Ingenieur]

Following him on twitter doesnt make me Realist, period.

Read the original story in Automobilwoche, nothing about fantastic, just calling it a Marketing Coup and saying market Entry is very soon.

 

[Gerasimental]

Coup - a notable or successful stroke or move.
Synonyms: success, triumph, feat, accomplishment, achievement, scoop, master stroke, stroke of genius

I'm guessing this was the intended meaning of 'coup', rather CIA-removing-pesky-elected-foreign-presidents-that-wont-sell-us-oil coup.



I'm afraid I haven't been able to find the original story online, but in looking for it did find this:

Tesla has started leasing Model S in Germany via a subsidiary, Tesla Financial Services.

70D available for €671/Month for a 48 month lease.

 

[virtuesoft]

CLSA have come out with a negative report on Tesla this morning. They're saying that the sales pace in China has not picked up and that inventory levels remain elevated. More info here...

http://www.thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2195960&headline=TSLA;TSLA-Tesla-challenges-remain-in-China-at-CLSA

There is also talk on Twitter that Barclays have poured further cold water on Tesla with a negative report of their own. I haven't seen evidence of that yet though.

It looks like a bear attack may be on the cards.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Below is the StreetInsider digest on both notes.

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is modestly lower in pre-open trade Monday (-0.9%) following cautious comments from CLSA and Barclays.

According to Notable Calls, the analyst said China sales pace "has not improved markedly, despite a shift in strategy, and that inventories remain elevated." The analyst said they were surprised by the large number of Model S vehicles sitting on the store lot. This suggest there may be large inventory form Tesla's 2014 shipments to work through. Tesla Model S appears to attract only niche buyers in China.

Meanwhile, Barclays is cautious on the company new energy imitative. They said only 3% of solar homes will be using batteries and said customers are better off selling their electricity back to the grid versus using Tesla solution to power a couple of light bulbs.

 

[DJ Frustration]

To the China sales pace, I say BS. The guy who bought my Model S last week just returned from two weeks in China in early May. He stopped in a few stores, saw a number of Model S vehicles on the street, and said his family even noticed Tesla's presence in China. Granted this was two weeks ago but I trust my source being that he actually visited.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

CSLA? This guy is the worst analyst on the street. Put out a sell when the stock was at 190. That enabled me to get in at 188. So consider the CLSA China news your opportunity to get in if you have not already!

 

[jhm]

It looks like we're in for a coordinated bear attack with all this premarket FUD flying about. I'd be happy to pick up more shares under $225. Let's see if these baboons can deliver a deep discount.

 

[aznt1217]

To the China sales pace, I say BS. The guy who bought my Model S last week just returned from two weeks in China in early May. He stopped in a few stores, saw a number of Model S vehicles on the street, and said his family even noticed Tesla's presence in China. Granted this was two weeks ago but I trust my source being that he actually visited.

that and the Chinese version of Top Gear made it's rounds with the P85D and ... the remarks were quite good. Cars "sitting on the lot" could just be waiting to go out for delivery.. because you know... common sense.

Anyway, I'm happy about it waiting for some cash to clear so I can pick up more!

 

[virtuesoft]

CSLA? This guy is the worst analyst on the street. Put out a sell when the stock was at 190. That enabled me to get in at 188. So consider the CLSA China news your opportunity to get in if you have not already!

They are terrible, but the worst analyst on the street award goes to John Lovallo from BofA. He has been recommending TSLA as a sell since $60.

 

[Johan]

According to Notable Calls, the analyst said China sales pace "has not improved markedly, despite a shift in strategy, and that inventories remain elevated." The analyst said they were surprised by the large number of Model S vehicles sitting on the store lot. This suggest there may be large inventory form Tesla's 2014 shipments to work through. Tesla Model S appears to attract only niche buyers in China.

Tesla Motors Inc. is production, not demand constrained. Tesla Motors Inc. do not publicly volounteer information on inventory, sales (other than quarterly global sales) or detailed information about reservations and orders per region. Tesla Motors Inc. do not per se operate with invetory cars, but the cars are made to order. In other words this "analyst" is making some quite big leaps in his conclusions.

Meanwhile, Barclays is cautious on the company new energy imitative. They said only 3% of solar homes will be using batteries and said customers are better off selling their electricity back to the grid versus using Tesla solution to power a couple of light bulbs.

According to recent data there are 645,000 U.S. homes and buisnesses with solar installations. If 3% of these order one PowerWall each that's 19350 PoweWalls. If these are the 7kW type units that's the equivalent of 135MWh of storage sales. That is not a little but a lot. Regardless, it has been made very clear by proper analysis that the main part of Tesla's revenue and profit for Stationary Storage will come from Powerpack sales to large businesses and utilities and not to home-owners and small businesses.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

More positive news:
T. Rowe Price increases value of equity holdings as it boosts share stakes in Twitter, Tesla, Alibaba - MarketWatch
"...it boosted its share stake in ... Tesla Motors Inc. TSLA, +1.95% by 36% to 8.13 million shares."

Very nice to see them increasing their position in TSLA.
Thanks for posting!

 

[chickensevil]

It looks like we're in for a coordinated bear attack with all this premarket FUD flying about. I'd be happy to pick up more shares under $225. Let's see if these baboons can deliver a deep discount.

Looks like they are failing at the moment to really dump off the price. I have cash ready to buy if it goes south, but also happy for it to continue to go up/stay where it is.

 

[Larken]

It is remarkable to see TSLA resisting to slide down after Barclays and CLSA's negative (FUDish) reports + the Nasdaq is down + TSLA's relentless 25% run the last 45 days. One would expect that with such circumstances it would be a lot worse. Go TSLA!

 

[uselesslogin]

Tesla Motors Inc. is production, not demand constrained. Tesla Motors Inc. do not publicly volounteer information on inventory, sales (other than quarterly global sales) or detailed information about reservations and orders per region. Tesla Motors Inc. do not per se operate with invetory cars, but the cars are made to order. In other words this "analyst" is making some quite big leaps in his conclusions.

We should be fair as far as excess inventory goes in China Elon himself commented they have excess inventory to work through there.
Tesla boss Elon Musk t give up China market | South China Morning Post

"China is the only place on earth where we have excess inventory. We are essentially selling cars that speculators ordered but we were unable to deliver,"

I'm pretty sure that is a legitimate quote from his last visit. Now they may be selling plenty of P85Ds for all we know but having a hard time finding buyers for P85s. In that case all the inventory will be left over from last year and it may be more useful for Tesla to use it for warehouse lines of credit than trying to sell it too quickly.