managed to turn a pretty boring day in to something productive, got puts at the day high, and calls at just about the day low. Will probably move out of them in a day or two (i never hold them long, but always buy several months out, Jan is my date of choice at the moment). Up quite a bit on the puts as it stands.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
LA times out with another report. More positive. Says another survey firm shows reliability is improving
Despite Consumer Report downgrade, Tesla reliability increasing, firm reports - LA Times
Despite Consumer Report downgrade, Tesla reliability increasing, firm reports - LA Times
phigment
Member
http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-aston-martin-electric-rapide-20151021-story.html
Aston Martin fully electric... possibly available in 2017. Was hoping to see how it charged and whether it used the supercharger network. Anybody able to find more info on that?
Oh... looks like this info was really available back in 2013... nothing to see here. Move along.
Aston Martin fully electric... possibly available in 2017. Was hoping to see how it charged and whether it used the supercharger network. Anybody able to find more info on that?
Oh... looks like this info was really available back in 2013... nothing to see here. Move along.
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Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
sentiment [sɛntɪm(ə)nt]
a view or opinion that is held or expressed.
synonyms: view, point of view, way of thinking, feeling, attitude, thought, opinion, belief, idea
How quickly things change. Stock price not too far from a hundred bucks down from ATH. Apparently my 2013 MS should have fallen apart by now. AP is supposedly endangering the lives of Tesla drivers and everyone else on the road. After 7.0 the UI is now so useless most owners would prefer analog dials to it. Consensus seems to be that a substantial deliveries miss for 2015 is inevitable. After the founder cars were delivered no one has seen or driven a Model X. Disgruntled owners are furiously looking for missing horse powers. No mention of Tesla Energy projects or large scale shipments of Powerpacks.
Elon, Elon, why hast thou forsaken me?
I for one is hoping for Elon to bring out his fiddle in preparation of Q3 earnings call.
a view or opinion that is held or expressed.
synonyms: view, point of view, way of thinking, feeling, attitude, thought, opinion, belief, idea
How quickly things change. Stock price not too far from a hundred bucks down from ATH. Apparently my 2013 MS should have fallen apart by now. AP is supposedly endangering the lives of Tesla drivers and everyone else on the road. After 7.0 the UI is now so useless most owners would prefer analog dials to it. Consensus seems to be that a substantial deliveries miss for 2015 is inevitable. After the founder cars were delivered no one has seen or driven a Model X. Disgruntled owners are furiously looking for missing horse powers. No mention of Tesla Energy projects or large scale shipments of Powerpacks.
Elon, Elon, why hast thou forsaken me?
I for one is hoping for Elon to bring out his fiddle in preparation of Q3 earnings call.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
everman
Member
Buddyroe
Active Member
Just an FYI to the 1400 losers out there that sold Tesla out - I'll buy your POS Tesla. Surely you don't want that crappy car any more, right?
I have to wonder how many cars the oil tycoons are buying just so they could complain to CR to hurt Tesla. I don't put it past them.
I have to wonder how many cars the oil tycoons are buying just so they could complain to CR to hurt Tesla. I don't put it past them.
A bit over the top wouldn't you say? My early 2013 has been pretty reliable over 35k miles. My next car will be a Tesla. But if CR called me and asked for honest feedback, I would have to mention the replaced drive unit, the replaced sunroof, and a couple of door handle issues. These are normal teething pains that I am more than comfortable with. Maybe the responders aren't losers but the CR math overemphasized these issues?
I never took CR seriously either way.
I'm a buyer at these levels.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I actually doubt this is the case.
Read the posts back a few pages in the thread. The Mercedes Benz S-class scored worse in reliability than the Model S. Acura (Honda's luxury division), got pounded in the rankings largely because of new transmission (outsourced 9-speed AT and an edgy in-house 8-speed DCT) and infotainment issues.
Short TSLA: I know heresy right? I get that but since this is an "Investor thread I'm not hear to bash but to learn and perhaps prevent a little too much silo thinking where everyone is viewing the stock, not the car, in a very narrow way.
Here's a first sample of reasons for my being short at this price.
1) why so long to replace CFO?
2) Why Jerome Guillen, VP of Service on leave with all that is going on now? Cover for quitting?
3) Why Philipp Schroeder, VP Worldwide Sales departure in September after such short tenure.
4) Why X rollout before production is ready? Something Elon said he would never do, I believe during 2Q earnings call.
5) Now that 6 X's delivered why not even price list for folks to consider as preparation for configuration.
I've many other questions, the CR thing makes me queasy and the X overall design seems less than awesome, but assuming the car is really great now my investing premise, (short), is based on financial not subjective criteria and would welcome the counterpoints.
When I start hearing excuses like, "all car companies have reliability issues or learning curves", I start thinking perhaps TSLA should then be priced like a car company stock.
cheers
Here's a first sample of reasons for my being short at this price.
1) why so long to replace CFO?
2) Why Jerome Guillen, VP of Service on leave with all that is going on now? Cover for quitting?
3) Why Philipp Schroeder, VP Worldwide Sales departure in September after such short tenure.
4) Why X rollout before production is ready? Something Elon said he would never do, I believe during 2Q earnings call.
5) Now that 6 X's delivered why not even price list for folks to consider as preparation for configuration.
I've many other questions, the CR thing makes me queasy and the X overall design seems less than awesome, but assuming the car is really great now my investing premise, (short), is based on financial not subjective criteria and would welcome the counterpoints.
When I start hearing excuses like, "all car companies have reliability issues or learning curves", I start thinking perhaps TSLA should then be priced like a car company stock.
cheers
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
The problem with Model X, which Elon has admitted, is that it is difficult to build. When he says stuff like "hardest car in the world to build", and 1% of the components are "excruciating" in production difficulty, and that maybe no one should build a car like this, it raises extremely serious questions about production ramp.
Model X is supposed to bring free cash flow and help fund Gigafactory and other future products.
I hate to say it, but if the car was designed such that it is difficult to mass produce, that is a major engineering mistake. I don't know which way this will go. If Tesla can sort out the production issues, TSLA will take off like a rocket. If Model X production drags, then all the rosy financials go out the window and shareholders are in for serious pain until Tesla Energy and Model 3 provide the next opportunity for a big earnings boost.
Your top 3 reasons for being short are a couple changes in management? I'm all for hearing bear cases, it's something not discussed enough here, but I don't understand the reasoning here. Tesla has massive advantages over current car companies and that is reflected in their gross margin. In combination with a clear path to 50% annual growth for at least the next 3-5 years, you think Tesla should have a similar price to sales as a traditional car company stock?
jesselivenomore
Member
Nothing wrong with being short TSLA, although it isn't some novel idea. TSLA has been one of the most highly shorted stocks for the past 4 years, all the way from $28 to $280.
Good luck.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
My perspective is that Tesla isn't likely to face serious competition for 3-4 years, and that it's likely to be Apple rather than GM and BMW that poses such a challenge.
I think that there is though genuine reason to be cautious about sustainable 50% growth every year. This is going to require greater and greater competence in supply chain management.
The long-term outlook is good because Tesla has the vision and drive that nobody else has right now. The path is going to be rocky though. Short-term traders should be under no illusions. Random stuff like the Consumer Reports article are going to happen and can destroy paper profits in an instant. Playing with options is playing with fire.
How many car companies do you know of with a 50% growth rate?
TSLA is priced for a ton of growth. If shorts such as yourself can get the price down significantly so I can lower my cost basis, that would be fine by me.
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Agreed on all counts. I don't take the 50% growth for granted, but there is a clear very path to this growth. Gigafactory --> Model 3/Tesla Energy. Speed of execution is really the only question to me.
So at what price does your strategy change. Please share.
I can answer a few of your questions off the bat. The CFO search is a non issue. For a position like this, it will take time. Especially to find a CFO that can work with guys like Elon and JB. It takes companies a lot of time to do this and make the right choice. Deepak is also staying for transition.
There are no public reasons for Jerome taking a leave. For all we know it is personal. Even so, the strategy and vision is set. Tesla has more than a couple people. Its a team sport.
The last guys departure is probably because the sales strategy is shifting. This was outlined earlier in the year.
I don't get point 4. More than 6 cars have been made.
We appreciate the short comments, but for your own sake. Set a stop price and do more research. All the bear cases I have been hearing are fine but no time horizon or exit point is attached. Its a dangerous game that we've heard since the 30s
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