Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[bh1783]

so how many i3 and i8 will consume 35gwh?

where is samsung's bev, how many bev did it sell this year? show me!!!

stupid lol

Renault Group Renault Samsung Motors vehicles

Been in production since 2013. . .

 

[McMuggets]

Renault Group Renault Samsung Motors vehicles

Been in production since 2013. . .

I am beginning to think that the people against Tesla are just simply against Tesla. Doesn't matter the facts. If you were to make 35Gwh of cells... you need about 500,000 cars to put them into. I have no idea how many Renault Samsung cars have sold, but probably not anywhere close to 500,000. And that's if you engineer the battery packs correctly for cooling and energy density to weight ratio, etc... Look, I would be very happy to see any EV battery pack perform real-world better than Tesla's. This would be very good for the industry and our planet. But so far Tesla has the most real-world performance and failures of any automaker for pure electric driven cars... as well as solutions to those failures. They've revised their battery pack just as they've done to their drive-units. 2013 vs 2015 Tesla cars only look the same on the outside, but there are many many differences inside. They are the world's biggest consumer as well of lithium batteries currently (and foreseeable near term future), so any time there are any "new ideas, or innovations in battery tech" they hear about it first because they are the biggest consumer and thus money talks. Just like how you would go to your biggest customer if you were selling a new product.

This thread is getting off topic from short term price movements to battery wars. I'm not commenting anymore on this... bottom line, Tesla's going to be manufacturing an enormous amount of batteries, whether we like it or not. They also are the undisputed best selling pure-electric consumer cars in the world by numbers. So they have the cars, the batteries, the software, and the head-start. By the time the Gigafactory is producing lots of cells in 2016 (check the news, they are ahead of schedule on both construction and production), other battery makers will still be figuring out how to expand their production, catch up in battery pack engineering, and securing a politically sustainable lithium supply chain.

 

[RobStark]

My thought on this is that Model S converted more than just BMW 5-series and Mercedes S-class buyers. From browsing the Model S forum here over the years, I noted that many buyers did stretch to get a Model S even if their previous rides were on the level of a Honda Accord. Also, consider that the CR-V is not exactly an inexpensive vehicle. The most common mid-level EX AWD trim already has an MSRP of just over 27k, and the top level Touring AWD has an MSRP of 33k. Add in fuel costs, and a Model Y at 40k starts to look a lot more competitive.

On paper, the Model "Y" competes against luxury cars in the same class, but my guess is that in real world sales, it is going to exert pressure on mainstream purchases too. Similarly, I expect Model 3 to convert some former Accord and Camry buyers.

Main targets is different from secondary targets and tertiary targets.

Model Y will certainly not get most of its conquest buys from Honda CR-V and Subaru Forester.

Model Y will likely get an MSRP in the $38k-$75k range.

In some regions of the country at $42/barrel there will be no savings on fuel.

In some areas of the country with overnight electricity cost of 1.5 cents per kWh the savings will be a no brainer.

In the real world Honda CR-Vs come with significant discounts over MSRP, they come with Honda subsidized financing, and typical buyers over emphasize initial cost over total cost of ownership.

Initially, Model Y will conquer a lot of former hybrid CUV/SUV buyers then it will be luxury CUV/SUV buyers.

Posters on TMC and TM forums tend not to be representative of Tesla buyers overall. Just the most passionate.

 

[schonelucht]

I couldn't go back to find Electricity's post about batteries not being a big deal later on.... but just wanted to state that batteries will be the most important factor. The architecture of the Tesla battery pack is completely different from what any EV or EV-Gas car has now.

What makes the pack (beyond the cells obviously) so exceptional? We've all seen the breakdown and subsequent rebuild by fellow board member wk57. That's just to the tip of the iceberg of a cottage industry of small time amateurs who are building packs with various degrees of succes. Tesla's mass produced packs are nifty but not groundbreakingly exceptional from a technical POV. It's literally not rocket science. Simple electronics to control bleeding, well understood cooling mechanism and a straightforward structural assembly. Maybe I am overlooking something here?

 

[Julian Cox]

What makes the pack (beyond the cells obviously) so exceptional? We've all seen the breakdown and subsequent rebuild by fellow board member wk57. That's just to the tip of the iceberg of a cottage industry of small time amateurs who are building packs with various degrees of succes. Tesla's mass produced packs are nifty but not groundbreakingly exceptional from a technical POV. It's literally not rocket science. Simple electronics to control bleeding, well understood cooling mechanism and a straightforward structural assembly. Maybe I am overlooking something here?

First of all the cells and their energy density and cost that won't go without repeating. Secondly the deep research that enables the board to genuinely understand the nature of the chemistry it is managing, which matters a lot to things like non-destructive supercharging and regen braking profiles. Then there is the management competence and guts to first build it and then trust the engineering of a massive high energy density battery system and know it will go ok without ending your company in law suits for loss of life in RUD events or in warranty costs.

 

[hobbes]

Renault Group Renault Samsung Motors vehicles

Been in production since 2013. . .

Thing is - they make mostly ICE vehicles, just one BEV which was only sold in South Korea:
Renault Samsung Motors - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Ingenieur]

See my post, imo will be very big news if true.

90D Range slowly declining - Page 13

Also the fact that S90D supercharging appears to be slower then S85D to put less stress on battery due to less degeneration reserve being present.

P90D Supercharging Data


Even as a Tesla bear this would seem like crazily shortsighted thing to do, is there a way to check on this claim without destroying a 90k$ car?

 

[schonelucht]

First of all the cells and their energy density and cost that won't go without repeating. Secondly the deep research that enables the board to genuinely understand the nature of the chemistry it is managing, which matters a lot to things like non-destructive supercharging and regen braking profiles. Then there is the management competence and guts to first build it and then trust the engineering of a massive high energy density battery system and know it will go ok without ending your company in law suits for loss of life in RUD events or in warranty costs.

If we remove everything that hasn't to do with the pack technology there doesn't remain a lot of substance though.

 

[hobbes]

What makes the pack (beyond the cells obviously) so exceptional?

If we remove everything that hasn't to do with the pack technology there doesn't remain a lot of substance though.

First you say the pack is not exceptional, now you say everything but the pack is not exceptional . I admit I don´t have enough technical insight to explain what advantage they have in detail - but even after Tesla opensourced their patents, big car makers announced pure BEV cars with similar range the Model S has now only for 2018 or so...

 

[electracity]

Apple. They receive 90% of profits in the smartphone market.

I'm talking about ability to manufacture. Apple doesn't dominate the ability to make high functional smartphones.

- - - Updated - - -

1. Intel (microprocessors)
2. Microsoft (operating systems)
3. Google (search and organizing the world's data)
4. Apple (personal computers)
5. Dupont (pretty much every chemical that is needed to make plastics)
6. Corning (the glass on pretty much everything, including that smart phone you are probably viewing this on)
7. Etc etc etc.

Again, all those companies compete with other manufacturers who have no problem making equivalents of high volume items.

 

[Drax7]

Speaking of which, TSLA should work with Corning to solve the windshield production issue. From my experience working with Corning Scientists on production inspection, they are very competent.

so how many i3 and i8 will consume 35gwh?

where is samsung's bev, how many bev did it sell this year? show me!!!

stupid lol

Merchants of doubt talking points:

tesla electric cars are nonsense , but if not, then XY Z is the tesla killer.
Giga factory is nonsense , but If not , then XYZ is the giga killer .

 

[electracity]

As long as the Model 3 is the success that Tesla thinks it will be they will definitely open up a second battery gigafactory. It's been mentioned more than once by Elon and J.B.

I think next year we may see Tesla get more capital and accelerate/enlarge the current gigafactory. Ron Baron's leading question about how big Tesla can be seemed to be supporting Musk in his current effort to project Tesla's future value.

- - - Updated - - -

What makes the pack (beyond the cells obviously) so exceptional? We've all seen the breakdown and subsequent rebuild by fellow board member wk57. That's just to the tip of the iceberg of a cottage industry of small time amateurs who are building packs with various degrees of succes. Tesla's mass produced packs are nifty but not groundbreakingly exceptional from a technical POV. It's literally not rocket science. Simple electronics to control bleeding, well understood cooling mechanism and a straightforward structural assembly. Maybe I am overlooking something here?

I agree, the pack is elegantly simple. The companies that has good cell and pack design that allows a great deal of automation in construction should have an advantage. I have no idea if Tesla's cells are a better choice than LG's prismatic cells.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

I think next year we may see Tesla get more capital and accelerate/enlarge the current gigafactory. Ron Baron's leading question about how big Tesla can be seemed to be supporting Musk in his current effort to project Tesla's future value.

- - - Updated - - -


I agree, the pack is elegantly simple. The companies that has good cell and pack design that allows a great deal of automation in construction should have an advantage. I have no idea if Tesla's cells are a better choice than LG's prismatic cells.

Edit: Pretty OT but whatev.

Tesla's pack is far more complex than any competitor's, each cell is liquid cooled the number of cells is massive (7104), each of the 16 modules has it's own BMS.

The advantage is that Tesla's pack hits the battery tri-fecta of high power density, high energy density and high cycle life.

There is an inverse relationship between cell size and cell power density because the power spec is limited by heat (typically) and a cell's ability to shed heat is proportional to (surface area)/(volume). Additionally because Tesla's individuals cells are so small they can tolerate a thermal runaway event in one cell and thus can use a more volatile (and higher energy density) chemistry.

Tesla's competitors use large format cells because they ease pack construction/reduce pack complexity, but this simplicity comes at the cost of both power and energy density. Energy density because they must use a less volatile chemistry for safety reasons, power density because the cells are larger... cycle life should actually be about the same for other liquid cooled packs (like the Volt) but because Tesla's pack has 4x the capacity of the Volt's pack it can travel 4x the distance for equal degradation.

 

[Scott Ales]

I haven't yet figured out why Tesla won this award but it will be interesting to eventually understand it. Can't hurt!

VeriFacts Recognizes Tesla Motors and Elon Musk with the Distinguished Disruptive Innovation Award - Yahoo Finance

 

[Discoducky]

I haven't yet figured out why Tesla won this award but it will be interesting to eventually understand it. Can't hurt!

VeriFacts Recognizes Tesla Motors and Elon Musk with the Distinguished Disruptive Innovation Award - Yahoo Finance

Right, the article never states why, but it seems more about innovation with collision repair?

It is a distinguished honor bestowed to an organization for their leadership in re-writing the future of the automotive collision repair industry.

 

[FredTMC]

Ok, who is sitting on the Sell Button this morning? Sheesh. How about finding a bottom already. Sheesh.

 

[emupilot]

Am I the only one who finds the price of TSLA oddly flat since the ER? It feels like it is being manipulated to stay in a narrow range, and then on Monday it will gap up or down.

I guess we have our answer about which way it will go...

 

[SBenson]

When do 2018 LEAPs come out? and who decides when they should come out? Curious because SCTY 2018 LEAPs are already out there but not for TSLA.

 

[ZenMan]

When do 2018 LEAPs come out? and who decides when they should come out? Curious because SCTY 2018 LEAPs are already out there but not for TSLA.

TSLA is on Option cycle 3 or MJSD - March, June, September and December. So the LEAPS will come out Monday, November 16th.

When are the exchanges going to list 2018 LEAPS®?
2018 LEAPS will be rolled out over a three month period.


Cycle 1: Monday, September 14th, 2015: January 2018 LEAPS® listed


Cycle 2: Monday, October 12th, 2015: January 2018 LEAPS® listed


Cycle 3: Monday, November 16th, 2015: January 2018 LEAPS® listed

LEAPS® & Cycles

 

[SBenson]

TSLA is on Option cycle 3 or MJSD - March, June, September and December. So the LEAPS will come out Monday, November 16th.

When are the exchanges going to list 2018 LEAPS®?
2018 LEAPS will be rolled out over a three month period.


Cycle 1: Monday, September 14th, 2015: January 2018 LEAPS® listed


Cycle 2: Monday, October 12th, 2015: January 2018 LEAPS® listed


Cycle 3: Monday, November 16th, 2015: January 2018 LEAPS® listed

LEAPS® & Cycles

Thank you

Anyone know if it is better to buy the first day they are available? or is it better for the pricing to settle so to speak? In other words are there amateur days similar to our daily trading amateur hours?