Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[mejojo]

Was it just the news above regarding the SGIP that caused the spike this morning? I don't see any other news. Now in the red, no sizzle just fizzle.

That's the patented Pop n Drop.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

1 Year Chart - SMAs

this is a 1 year chart vs. trade volume as I think a 5Y or even "max" is not needed having in mind the ATH is still captured in the 12 months period.
You can compare all three SMA (50/100/200 days) and make your own technical conclusions.
I made a brief research in the ATH SMAs and can provide you with the following for comparison purposes against the current ones:

highest SMA _50: $259.01 on 10/10/2014
highest SMA 100: $247.12 on 12/08/2014 (approaching slowly...)
highest SMA 200: $232.35 on 12/05/2014

 

[SteveG3]

If I had one share of stock for every time i read another random idea on what the demand secret weapon is definitely going to be and that it's definitely going to be announced tomorrow....

Very good Fango, such claims would clearly be irrational. I claimed neither mate.

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I really like this thinking and hope something like this is in the works. If it's say 3,000 cars, that's about a $300M purchase by a Hertz. Not sure how much they spend annually on car purchases. They obviously wouldn't do 1/rental location, but 10 at LAX, 10 at SFO, Miami, etc. Maybe 200 each at DFW and Houston Intergalactic just to thumb it at the Texas Legislature.

Thanks Cattledog. fwiw, Hertz has 10,000 locations around the world. What's more, there's a couple of other things Tesla can do to mitigate potential inventory of refused 85 kWh vehicles building up if a larger battery is announced.

 

[30seconds]

I really like this thinking and hope something like this is in the works. If it's say 3,000 cars, that's about a $300M purchase by a Hertz. Not sure how much they spend annually on car purchases. They obviously wouldn't do 1/rental location, but 10 at LAX, 10 at SFO, Miami, etc. Maybe 200 each at DFW and Houston Intergalactic just to thumb it at the Texas Legislature.

Why wouldn't TSLA just swap in the larger battery size and sell as inventory cars?

 

[Gerasimental]

I don't think that Tesla will start selling large quantities to rental companies while they are still supply constrained and enthusiastic buyers are being made to wait 2-3 months for their cars, and I don't see this situation changing until at least the end of this year. They've just had another huge bump of public awareness and visibility and the summer months in which car sales go up have just begun.

 

[CatB]

I don't think that Tesla will start selling large quantities to rental companies while they are still supply constrained and enthusiastic buyers are being made to wait 2-3 months for their cars, and I don't see this situation changing until at least the end of this year. They've just had another huge bump of public awareness and visibility and the summer months in which car sales go up have just begun.

Plus, I don't think the average car renter understands charging and range well enough - could be too much of a character-building and learning experience for all involved.

 

[austinEV]

Plus, I don't think the average car renter understands charging and range well enough - could be too much of a character-building and learning experience for all involved.

yeah this. Not a great candidate for rental fleets. Taxis make more sense. Handing the keys of a model S to a random renter going to a surburban holiday inn would go badly.

 

[mibaro2]

Would be nice to be able to rent a tesla for those of us that have one and know how it works. Say I fly to BC and want to rent a tesla for a week... maybe showing the car rental company your proof of ownership of a tesla before he rents one to you. That would ensure that the car would be going into knowledgeable hands.

 

[ibcs]

Strange day when a 6 dollar swing does not generate any comments. We started at 248 and are at 242.71 now. No news or comments from main contributors.

 

[austinEV]

Strange day when a 6 dollar swing does not generate any comments. We started at 248 and are at 242.71 now. No news or comments from main contributors.

It's not really a remarkable day or range or whatever. Looks like a small "breather" in great little run since the ER, to me.

 

[ibcs]

It's not really a remarkable day or range or whatever. Looks like a small "breather" in great little run since the ER, to me.

That's a perfect summary. I guess I was thinking it, but without confirmation it seemed strange. Thanks for the reply.

 

[100thMonkey]

perhaps the profit takers are just feeling a little guilty and don't want to bring attention to themselves :~)

Strange day when a 6 dollar swing does not generate any comments. We started at 248 and are at 242.71 now. No news or comments from main contributors.

 

[Gtoffo]

That's a perfect summary. I guess I was thinking it, but without confirmation it seemed strange. Thanks for the reply.

I sense a quiet tension in the forum....nobody wants to jinx it....

I think the sentiment is good....today some people took some profits and the shorts took a breather.... will we settle? Or will we rip? The close will be interesting today.

 

[eloder]

Plus, I don't think the average car renter understands charging and range well enough - could be too much of a character-building and learning experience for all involved.

I don't think that's an issue.

Car2go runs full-electric car rental fleets (400-500+ EVs strong) in some cities, and those smart EVs have something like a 74 mile EPA range.

I think it could succeed strongly just like Tesla limo service startups--there's enough built-up demand for it from people who want to drive a Tesla, but can't afford one yet. Car2go has probably one of the most simple and ingenious ways to teach people about EVs and range: if your rental has a low enough battery, and you end the rental at a charging station, you get something like 20 minutes of free rental time added onto your account.

 

[CatB]

As long as they don't rent to NYT reporters, yeah, should be fine...

 

[ggr]

I sense a quiet tension in the forum....nobody wants to jinx it....

I think the sentiment is good....today some people took some profits and the shorts took a breather.... will we settle? Or will we rip? The close will be interesting today.

Volume was pretty close to the average, there was no big news, and nothing expected for a few more weeks. Even the AGM is usually a non-event. I think the stock will be relatively flat to slightly down for a while. Today I cashed in some calls from a month or two ago for a tidy profit, wrote some $250 covered calls for next week, and bought some Dec $250s with the profits. I guess I'm short term a hibernating bear, but of course long term a raging bull.

 

[FluxCap]

I agree that relatively flat trading would seem logical if the market had fully digested all of the recent TSLA news, but I'm not sure it has. What the market decides to do with that information is anyone's guess. Given a hypothetical static macroeconomic environment, I'm also super mega ultra bullish into later this year and 2016, but for the coming few weeks/months, less certain.

I'm not sure how the release of the Elon biography on May 19th will affect things, but my sense is for all the sensationalist claims that it might contain, it generates interest in Elon, in Tesla, and in TSLA. That's a good thing for a company that still does not advertise.

 

[SteveG3]

I don't think that Tesla will start selling large quantities to rental companies while they are still supply constrained and enthusiastic buyers are being made to wait 2-3 months for their cars, and I don't see this situation changing until at least the end of this year. They've just had another huge bump of public awareness and visibility and the summer months in which car sales go up have just begun.

This was suggested as a way of clearing out orphaned cars in production or transit if a bigger battery is introduced for the Model S (and, a means of bringing test drive opportunities to states banning Tesla stores). More like a an event driven occasional tool than a day in day out effort to sell to rental fleets. Moreover, IIRC the "secret weapon" was described as a demand secret weapon he might deploy later this year. So, while the "secret weapon" is not at all necessarily this specific suggestion, it is about increasing demand.

 

[Bunky]

While it's fun to speculate on what Elon's secret weapon is, every day that goes by without said weapon being deployed is a positive indicator that demand does not need stimulating. Good to have something in the chamber if needed, but I'm happy if whatever it is never has to be used.

 

[ecarfan]

I think the "secret weapon" has already been deployed. It's the CPO program.

Tesla's trade in values are pretty good. No real incentive to sell a used Model S to a dealer, or privately. Sell it to Tesla when you want to move up to the latest version, like Dual Motor.