Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[jhm]

The LatestSign That Coal Is Getting Killed - Bloomberg Business

Financial distress within the coal industry. According to Bloomberg, coal bonds lost 17% of value in Q2 alone. State of Wyoming has revoked ANR's self-bonding status to cover reclamation liabilities, for which the company now has until Aug. 24 to post cash or collateral for $411M liability. ANR's bonds have lost 70% of value.

You'd think short sellers would quit TSLA just to make easy money on coal.

 

[Sus]

I did my part today....bought $300k worth.

That's bold. Is it a long term hold?

 

[MikeC]

You'd think short sellers would quit TSLA just to make easy money on coal.

The funny thing is, those guys are probably long coal.

 

[pGo]

Wall Street Journal picked up on Tesla having bought considerably more land in Nevada this spring.

What I found most relevant from the article:

"The majority of the land—1,863 acres—is buffer land, on which Tesla won’t build structures but could place solar arrays to provide power to the plant, a spokeswoman said. The remaining 110 acres is for industrial purposes, though Tesla says it hasn’t planned to expand beyond its original footprint yet.",

"The nearly 3,000-acre site takes up about 2% of Storey County’s land area and dwarfs most factory locations. The Tesla spokeswoman says the company has options to purchase several thousand more acres as well."

and,

"The battery factory will begin producing cells at the end of 2016"

The WSJ has quite a track record of making misleading statements regarding Tesla, so I think it's worth considering the possibility that the "buffer land" statement is not accurate. As to the GF producing cells in by the end of 2016... I'm wondering if it is already understood that they will be making cells at the GF about 6 months before they produce battery packs.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/teslas-land-holdings-in-nevada-nearly-triples-1436908368

you should be able to google the title of the article and access it for free.

Isn't cell production delayed by 6 months than previously stated? Not sure if this is a concern, but I was like they were going to feed the stationary storage lines with initial production.

 

[SteveG3]

Isn't cell production delayed by 6 months than previously stated? Not sure if this is a concern, but I was like they were going to feed the stationary storage lines with initial production.

good catch pGo... I mistook that for the end of 2015. Given the most recent comments from Tesla and the WSJ's track record, I'm not too concerned that there is actually a delay. Of course, Tesla is likely to comment on the GF timeline in a couple of weeks on the earnings call.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Man, this is like watching an elite marathon race where everyone just chugs along at a nice pace waiting for the right time to attack and head for the sprint to the finish.

Inevitably when you least expect it...Leeroy Jenkins! :biggrin:

 

[jhm]

The funny thing is, those guys are probably long coal.

Now, if only there was a way to get cars that run on coal... that would really perk up this industry!

 

[doggusfluffy]

Haven't seen this posted here:

Texas Isn't Open for Tesla's Direct Auto Sales, Abbott Says - Yahoo Finance

“Texas has a very robust, very open, very effective automobile sector that seems like it’s working quite well the way that it is,” Abbott told Bloomberg Radio on Tuesday. “If you’re going to have a breakdown in a car, you need to have a car dealership there to make sure that the vehicle is going to be taken care of. We haven’t seen that from Tesla.”

 

[MartinAustin]

ricardo reyes ‏@ricardor
Tesla service already available across TX. @GregAbbott_TX should be gung-ho about a company growing there. Hope to sell direct pronto.

and then...


ricardo reyes ‏@ricardor
And, more good news for @GregAbbott_TX and Texas consumers: @ConsumerReports ranks Tesla service above the dealers. http://bit.ly/1AUVIcr .


A nice riposte from Ricardo. Keeping it positive.

 

[Johan]

Now, if only there was a way to get cars that run on coal... that would really perk up this industry!

Nuff said:

Rolling coal - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Hogfighter]

That's bold. Is it a long term hold?

As long as the story stays the same, yes. If the stock falls significantly, I'll sell and buy some ITM Jan '17 LEAPS.

 

[All Your Bases]

Look's like the "InsideEVs" guess-o-meter is not that well calibrated.

Inside had 4,700 for 2015Q1 but, if the source below is to be trusted, the real number was: 5,813 ...

IHS Offers Precise U.S. Data On Tesla Model S Registrations In The First Quarter - Forbes

 

[jhm]

Nuff said:

Apparently not enough to keep the coal bond market happy. Otherwise this image is pretty good PR for the fossil fuel industry.

 

[uselesslogin]

It seems the morning dip didn't last too long today...

 

[blakegallagher]

Inevitably when you least expect it...Leeroy Jenkins! :biggrin:

Thanks for a good laugh

 

[32no]

Look's like the "InsideEVs" guess-o-meter is not that well calibrated.

Inside had 4,700 for 2015Q1 but, if the source below is to be trusted, the real number was: 5,813 ...

IHS Offers Precise U.S. Data On Tesla Model S Registrations In The First Quarter - Forbes

The only way I could see this number as being correct is if it includes CPO cars. If that is true, then it seems that Tesla sold more than 800 CPO cars online and through stores (I remember the CPO consolidator showing ~400 cars sold online). Tesla self reported at the shareholder meeting that they delivered 5500 cars in NA, about 500 of which went to Canada.

EDIT: As mmd points out below, there were no CPO sales in Q1, so the registration data is simply inaccurate because it lags.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Analyst Recommendations: Goldman Sachs (Archambault) raises PT for $3, Stifel

Yes, Patrick Archambault raises his PT from $233 to $236 and reiterates "neutral/neutral" (??) recommendation. Have a look at his PT history and make your own judgement.
James Albertine at Stifel confirms again his monster PT of $400.

 

[mmd]

The only way I could see this number as being correct is if it includes CPO cars. If that is true, then it seems that Tesla sold more than 800 CPO cars online and through stores (I remember the CPO consolidator showing ~400 cars sold online). Tesla self reported at the shareholder meeting that they delivered 5500 cars in NA, about 500 of which went to Canada.

This logic is not right. IHS data is for Q1 of 2015, whereas online cpo sales only started in Q2.
The registration data is lagging from sales data. Some Q4 2014 sales could be registered in Q1 2015, and the last minute Q1 sales will show up in Q2 registration data.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Lawmaker pushing for compromise over Tesla sales in Utah | Deseret News

"Nobody sees a path to compromise," she said, during an early morning meeting of the Legislature's Conservative Caucus. "There is no gray in this."

At issue are state laws — Utah is not alone — that prohibit manufacturers' direct sales of new automobiles to consumers, except through independent franchised dealers.

 

[EldestOyster]

Tesla service already available across TX. @GregAbbott_TX should be gung-ho about a company growing there. Hope to sell direct pronto.

And, more good news for @GregAbbott_TX and Texas consumers: @ConsumerReports ranks Tesla service above the dealers. http://bit.ly/1AUVIcr .

Weird coincidence...I'm looking at the name "Greg Abbott" and I'm thinking, "Huh?"

Not everyone knows the connection: Gadget was featured in "Revenge of the Electric Car".