Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[ev-enthusiast]

The street, so I should have just done the opposite and bailed on my entire position, wo cares:
Tesla's Stock Chart Predicts a Rally Ahead

The powerful downside momentum unleashed last Thursday is still pushing Tesla Motors TSLA lower -- but the tide could be turning for the electric car manufacturer.
Tesla fell over 10% on Aug. 6, before finally closing with an 8.8% loss on its second-heaviest volume of the year. This earnings-inspired breakdown began with a huge downside gap that dropped shares below the July low. Tesla's continued drift lower will soon reach a major support zone. For patient bulls, a low-risk buying opportunity may develop very soon.

(link)

 

[hockeythug]

I don't think that's correct. They've converted to electro-mechanical braking. I'll try to dig up a source.

-- update --

Looks like you're correct, it's electro-assisted, removing the need for the vacuum pump.

P85D - Electric Mechanical Braking System - Page 8

Didn't know they changed to that. Thanks for that link.

 

[FANGO]

...is what we were saying all the way down to the 180s last time. .

And I'm up ~100% on everything I bought during those months.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Weak longs with stop limits near 236 and 235 were shaken out due to the cascading domino effect near the usual conclusion of the amateur hour. Now the TSLA price is rebounding from that bear raid. Meanwhile, shares of American automakers Tesla, Ford and General Motors are all down by similar percentages this morning.

Is this a theory/judgment, or have you seen transactional data to substantiate the claim?

 

[doggusfluffy]

This is what the other Gigafactory looks like - Fortune

Construction on SolarCity’s factory started just 11 months ago. Zheng Xu, the CEO of Silevo, said at the recent ceremony that the construction project was the fastest one he’s seen done internationally.

 

[InTheShadows]

What does everyone think the impact of the explosion in China will have on the stock market tomorrow? The shipping port that it occurred in, any chance of Model S's that may have been damaged?

EXPLOSION IN TIANJIN, CHINA (RAW VIDEO) åœ¨å¤©æ´¥ï¼Œä¸­åœ‹å·¨å¤§çš„çˆ†ç‚¸è² - Different Angles - YouTube

 

[sub]

What does everyone think the impact of the explosion in China will have on the stock market tomorrow? The shipping port that it occurred in, any chance of Model S's that may have been damaged?

EXPLOSION IN TIANJIN, CHINA (RAW VIDEO) 在天津，ä¸*國巨大的爆炸è￾² - Different Angles - YouTube

none

 

[Lump]

China 3 days in a row with a total devaluation of 4.6%

China Central Bankto Maintain ‘Normalâ€[emoji769] Movement of Yuan Exchange Rate - Bloomberg Business

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-12/china-devalues-yuan-3rd-day-4-year-lows-argentina-suffers-losses-japan-escalates-cur

 

[doggusfluffy]

Tesla Drivers Will Soon Find More Charging Stations in Manhattan

Tesla Motors, the maker of high-end electric cars, will announce plans on Thursday aimed at making commuting into Manhattan with its Model S sedan, or living there while owning one, easier. The company will unveil a partnership with two dozen garages around Manhattan, which will offer higher-speed, 240-volt chargers for Tesla owners to power up their cars.

 

[SuryaDham]

new secondary offering:
Tesla Motors - Prospectus Filed Pursuant to Rule 424

- - - Updated - - -

Premarket und TL0 in Frankfurt reacting slightly positive so far. Trading around 216.50 +- 2 EUR...or about 241 USD.

 

[anon]

new secondary offering:
Tesla Motors - Prospectus Filed Pursuant to Rule 424

Only $492 million. Less than some were expecting, so hopefully the market will view it favorably. On the other hand, it's also sooner than some were expecting.

It's unfortunate that they didn't do this a little earlier when the price was higher! The previous two secondaries were both after a share price increase, rather than a decrease, so it's difficult to know how this one will be received.

 

[BoerumHill]

new secondary offering:
Tesla Motors - Prospectus Filed Pursuant to Rule 424

- - - Updated - - -

Premarket und TL0 in Frankfurt reacting slightly positive so far. Trading around 216.50 +- 2 EUR...or about 241 USD.

$500M

Elon putting in $20M.

Mr. Elon Musk, our Chief Executive Officer, Product Architect and Chairman of our Board of Directors, has indicated his preliminary interest in purchasing up to an aggregate of 83,974 shares of our common stock in this offering at the public offering price for an aggregate purchase price of approximately $20 million.

 

[Gtoffo]

new secondary offering:
Tesla Motors - Prospectus Filed Pursuant to Rule 424

Up 2% pre market at the moment.

As usual two scenarios possible:

1. BULL: more cash for growth and less worries about liquidity. Dilution is not a problem. Stock goes up up up.
2. BEAR: this is a never ending story of cash burning. Stock goes down down down.

I think the bear case is less probable (wishful thinking?). After all there is no doubt that Tesla is indeed selling cars at the moment and that future growth with Model X and Tesla Energy is to be expected.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

$500M

Elon putting in $20M.

That was my first thought about the offering as well.
"Only about $500M?! That's about a fourth compared to the amount of the last secondary offering?"
My first question afterwards was:
"Are they sure that that's enough money to financially de-risk the launch of Model X and Gigafactory?"
BTW EM hinted at last CC that a secondary offering would not be needed to direktly, but could be done in order to get a cash cushion to de-risk near term financials.
No answer to this questions yet, maybe yes.
Good to see EM to put some money on the table, looks like he is still confident about his business.

What does anybody else think about amount of this secondary offering?

 

[Johan]

That was my first thought about the offering as well.
"Only about $500M?!"
My first question afterwards was:
"Are they sure that they only need that much money to de-risk the launch of Model X and Gigafactory?"
No answer yet.
What does anybody else think about the fact that Tesla Motors rising only about a fourth of the amount of the last secondary offering this time?

I find it strange. Perhaps that what the feel they need. If the stock was trading near or above ATH I suspect they would have raised more. Perhaps they'll raise again at a higher valuation?

 

[Blurry_Eyed]

Any chance that Alphabet (Google) picks up shares in this offering? I would think the market reaction would be quite favorable if that happened.

 

[eepic]

I find it strange. Perhaps that what the feel they need. If the stock was trading near or above ATH I suspect they would have raised more. Perhaps they'll raise again at a higher valuation?

I agree with this... I have a bad gut feeling about this for the short term.

If the MX was about to be revealed to be amazing and on time for ramp up, the stock would likely move upwards and it would be better to raise then. To me, that means likely two scenarios:

1) They are worried the effect of MX reveal on share price (like D event), are raising some now and possibly more depending on how that goes.
or
2) There is truth to the rumors of the MX delay, they want to raise ahead of a likely drop of the stock price (and precisely because the MX push out means a later date before cash flow positive in 1H 2016 so they need more cushion).

 

[jhm]

So shares outstanding increases 1.65% to 129.2M. This is pretty trivial.

I am surprised that Musk is only picking up 4% of this offering. I would think he'd want to maintain his fraction of ownership and score some shares at favorable price. Perhaps stock compensation has enhanced his share above his target fraction. Any chance he may pick up more on the open market?

Are there any other big investors in the wings? Any other private placements?

 

[BoerumHill]

Good to see EM to put some money on the table, looks like he is still confident about his business.

I thought so too until I realized 20M/12B net worth is like you and I putting up $1500.

The size of the offering is curious. Maybe they decided this was a better source than drawing down on the remainder of the line of credit? They didn't know that 10 days ago?

But overall I think it's encouraging because it tells me they are confident the combined factors of Model S/X GM contributions and sharp CapEx reduction after Giga1 completes will be sufficient to return the company to cash flow positive relatively quickly.

 

[Matias]

Q4 was supposed to be cash flow positive. Now it is Q1.