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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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Show me in the master plan where it says they will be 2.5 years late with the X, spending God knows how much money on designing HEPA filters, falcon doors, and auto-opening front doors (that don't work). And show me where it says it will start at $80k.

I remember hearing and reading that this car would be priced at a starting point of around $49k. Granted, time has gone by, and I can see that $49k reaching $55-60k - but 80!

Please tell me you guys saw the front door of the white Model X open by itself when the driver brought it out and exited the vehicle (after closing the door himself). Musk had to shut it. It was embarrassing to me and showed why this vehicle is not for sale to the general public yet.

Even higher prices and associated profit margins are actually quite welcome while the company is production constrained and awaiting large quantity output of batteries from the under-construction Gigafactory. Silicon Valley entrepreneurs understand the psychology of wealthy first adopters who love to "show off" extras. Elon has made no secret that Tesla takes advantage of that. The resulting cash is needed for development of the cheaper mass market Model 3, and will help reduce the need for further stock or bond offerings.

The door happening to which you refer appears to be related to the driver getting out and handing the key fob to Elon. From a distance the key fob signals the door. Rest assured that the founders who will be driving the signature cars that they received yesterday are considered de facto beta testers by Tesla's engineers. Their feedback will undoubtedly lead to tweaks that result in improvements before the Model X is produced in quantity.
 
a nice mild turnaround in the final minutes here. ill take it.

Yup still average volume for the day and almost neutral price movement. Everybody's anticipating delivery numbers (hopefully Friday) and I'm personally on the optimistic side. I think management tried to get out all the bad info at once and set the expectations low during the last earnings call so they can finish the year strong without too much pressure.
 
The most difficult car to build in the world regrettably is not favorable to profitability,
all else being the same. Why reinvent the wheel when its of marginal utility.
The average family has only 2.002154 children.

Musk got carried away somewhat with over engineering, and I wonder if anybody in the company is allowed to
question his judgement. Need some check and balances.
 
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5) realization that only five cars delivered this quarter (four owners were handed the keys by Elon on stage, but immediately after that these cars were being used for test rides, plus Elon's own car stayed on stage for people to admire, sit in, put their finger prints on, etc.)

I don't get it. Wasn't the whole idea to deliver 29 cars on the 29-th and declare victory? Now it's only 5 cars to pseudo-owners, that were then used for test rides? If that is really true, the cars are definitely not ready for prime time. Even the Bolt has more prototypes running around today. Elon was right. These cars must be really really hard to make and get working.
 
I don't get it. Wasn't the whole idea to deliver 29 cars on the 29-th and declare victory? Now it's only 5 cars to pseudo-owners, that were then used for test rides? If that is really true, the cars are definitely not ready for prime time. Even the Bolt has more prototypes running around today. Elon was right. These cars must be really really hard to make and get working.

While I wouldn't be surprised if it is only 6 cars (and yes it is 6, Elon always pays for his own cars so it will count toward the bottom line)... Please keep in mind that practically all of the release events only had about 6 deliveries to them. But many of those included other deliveries that happened away from the press event itself. Again, not going to be surprised if it is only 6, but just because that was all you saw doesn't mean that was all you got.

Also, Prototypes and Production cars are two different things. The company has stated before that they had hundreds of prototypes. So I am not sure what you were getting at here other than to make a fuss out of nothing and a comparison that doesn't line up.
 
I don't get it. Wasn't the whole idea to deliver 29 cars on the 29-th and declare victory? Now it's only 5 cars to pseudo-owners, that were then used for test rides? If that is really true, the cars are definitely not ready for prime time. Even the Bolt has more prototypes running around today. Elon was right. These cars must be really really hard to make and get working.
Nobody said those were their cars. They just got the keys to their cars and were chauffeured off the stage by the test drive cars.
 
The idea right now is not for Tesla to introduce a more affordable car. The plan is to make compelling high margin (profit) cars that will pull in the cash that will allow the company to produce at high volume a much cheaper and necessarily lower margin car by 2017. You may want to read the master plan written by Elon Musk in 2006: Tesla Master Plan
I agree with this but I think Elon adjusted his master plan when he saw the market opportunity at the high end. Remember, he started with the S40 at $50K but soon realized he had a better opportunity at the high end given how well the 1% is doing in this country the last few years. That's why we saw so much emphasis on Insane/Ludicrous modes as well as many new high priced options. That is why the S40 was cancelled and prices were raised. The goal is to get the ASPs up.

The X is the same. Instead of focusing on a mid range SUV, he went for the kitchen sink and the much more lucrative and profitable high end.

The complaining you are seeing is from the mid tier buyer who stretched to buy the S who will not be able to pay for the X.

But if this strategy pays of so we can have a successful Model 3, it will be worth it.
 
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Nobody said those were their cars. They just got the keys to their cars and were chauffeured off the stage by the test drive cars.

Sorry, your statement sounds even more weird. Was it a delivery ceremony yesterday or not? A normal person would assume that the owners got the keys to their own cars, not some random cars to test drive.

(Edit: Please see mulder1231's post earlier. The same cars were used for test drives later. Here is what mulder said:
"5) realization that only five cars delivered this quarter (four owners were handed the keys by Elon on stage, but immediately after that these cars were being used for test rides, plus Elon's own car stayed on stage for people to admire, sit in, put their finger prints on, etc.) "

May be, it was just a reveal ceremony.
 
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Sorry, your statement sounds even more weird. Was it a delivery ceremony yesterday or not? A normal person would assume that the owners got the keys to their own cars, not some random cars to test drive.

(Edit: Please see mulder1231's post earlier. The same cars were used for test drives later. Here is what mulder said:
"5) realization that only five cars delivered this quarter (four owners were handed the keys by Elon on stage, but immediately after that these cars were being used for test rides, plus Elon's own car stayed on stage for people to admire, sit in, put their finger prints on, etc.) "

May be, it was just a reveal ceremony.
You misunderstood. I think they did get the keys to their cars. I just don't think that their cars were the ones that picked them up on stage. I think their cars were out in the parking lot.
 
You misunderstood. I think they did get the keys to their cars. I just don't think that their cars were the ones that picked them up on stage. I think their cars were out in the parking lot.

I believe that they did pick up their own cars. If you watch the video for the couple picking up the blue MX (Sorry I don't know the name), you can clearly see the passenger side door auto-opening when they are approaching the vehicle from that same side. The man manually shuts it closed, meaning that the car detected him walking up to it.
 
Musk has said that more affordable versions of Model X are on the way. But I honestly don't see how a 70D vesion is in the cards as the range would not be adequate. The MS 90D starts at $88k, so I figure that a MX 90D would start at $93k. This makes the MS 70 starting at $70k look downright affordable.

Tesla had better make good on a truly affordable Model 3 pronto.
 


Indeed it was never made, but those who ordered it could instead buy a 60 kWh with software limiting it to 40 kWh range while paying the 40 kWh price. That limitation could be undone with a payment by the original or a future owner.

Link to 2013 Tesla Press Release


Relevant Sentence:

"The customers who ordered this option will instead receive the 60 kWh pack, but range will be software limited to 40 kWh. It will still have the improved acceleration and top speed of the bigger pack, so will be a better product than originally ordered, and can be upgraded to the range of the 60 kWh upon request by the original or a future owner."

Bottom line is that the higher ASPs for the S has translated into a better bottom line. Doesn't really matter why.

What matters now is the ramp-up, and by all indications it's not around the corner. But demand for the S is apparently still strong, so hopefully it won't affect overall deliveries for Q4 much.
 
Bottom line is that the higher ASPs for the S has translated into a better bottom line. Doesn't really matter why.

What matters now is the ramp-up, and by all indications it's not around the corner. But demand for the S is apparently still strong, so hopefully it won't affect overall deliveries for Q4 much.
So the followup question to the higher ASP of the Model X is what if it could been rolled out earlier with an easier ramp if it didn't have all the gee-whiz features? Also, how much cheaper would it be without the falcon doors?

We'll know soon if it was the right strategy.
 
So the followup question to the higher ASP of the Model X is what if it could been rolled out earlier with an easier ramp if it didn't have all the gee-whiz features? Also, how much cheaper would it be without the falcon doors?

We'll know soon if it was the right strategy.

Since there remains a backlog of Model S orders, and the Gigafactory is not yet pumping out batteries, there has been no need to rush the Model X into the same production line. Of course here in the investor forum we like strategies that optimize revenue, profit margin and net income. Over at the Model X forum folks understandably want lower prices and quicker delivery. Nevertheless, there is a long backlog of Model X orders.
 
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What I am hearing from most people about the falcon doors (not investors but potential buyers) is this comment: Tesla already has a tall task in educating the public about electric cars and showing them that not only do they perform better and last longer with less maintenance, but they also provide enough range to allow you to go anywhere your ICE vehicle can go. Add on to that now the task of convincing them that these funky doors are better than what we've used for 100 years and are used to. Then ask them to fork out over $100k for it.

A great - not so "un"-ordinary - SUV for around a starting price of $55k is what Tesla needed. There is only so many people that will buy an electric car, and only so many of them have $100k to spend. I'm willing to bet that very few "new" people will be brought in because of the X. It will just be people that would have looked at Tesla in general anyway. Granted, some will buy the X that would not have otherwise bought a Tesla, but MANY (or most) will buy the X that would have otherwise bought the S. In other words, I expect great cannibalization.

Again, I am sorry to be so negative. I just fail to see why SO much time and money went into something that is not a slam dunk for sure winner. The big companies can afford to do that. Not Tesla. We needed a sure-thing. The fact that it is electric was enough. Just how dang compelling did it have to be? Auto-opening doors? Come on. Why was time and money spent on that?

I sure hope a plane jane, 4 regular doors version (with no HEPA filter either) for around $55-$60k will be available some day soon. Tesla is surely going to need the additional sales it would generate.

I wish I could be a cheerleader today, but I'm afraid that my gut feeling isn't very good for the X. I see about 60-70% of the deposits being refunded. It could get very bad. Tesla missed the mark badly with this car (and spent a lot of money doing it). And I think Musk knows it based on his comments. And most non-owner investors know it too. Sorry.
What percent of Tesla owners/investors became convinced when they drove an MS? Based on the reports by the reporters that actually drove the car, it's clearly a home run.

One analyst, who recommended buying TSLA, for the MX Launch said to think of it as a 2 or 3 month investment. Positive reactions and reviews (which will come faster than with the MS), plus the production ramp. The numbers this week and from the ER will have a big impact. IMO this will go faster than the MS, but maybe not fast enough to prevent some short or medium term pain.

Musk has said that more affordable versions of Model X are on the way. But I honestly don't see how a 70D version is in the cards as the range would not be adequate. The MS 90D starts at $88k, so I figure that a MX 90D would start at $93k. This makes the MS 70 starting at $70k look downright affordable.
MX range with a 70D should be about the same as a MS with a 60. Another solution is to wait until the GF gets rolling about June, and use an 80-90 kWh pack at a lower price.
 
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