Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
So I was thinking about the Q3 deliveries and the notable absence of any kind of end of Q push and all Model S new order deliveries now sitting at late Dec. and wondering - if Tesla meets guidance and delivers almost 17k vehicles in Q4, will that make the company cash flow +ve and profitable in Q4?

Good call on this, I'm not sure about cash flow positive in Q4 but I think they said it's a slight possibility but were very positive about Q1 16. However, I had not thought about the expected delivery times being pushed back to December/late December for almost every market and version of the car and how this is forward looking for year end target. This would mean that they already have a good idea on where they stand for deliveries this year and the expected ramp for Model S. Maybe Elon we will get more insight on this at earnings.
 
Here's another perspective on this debate. What would TSLA stock price be today if Elon launched a simplified version of the Model X a year ago and was shipping in volume today?

My guess would be much higher than $250.

They seem to have been production constrained anyways. Producing the model x a year earlier might not have helped their numbers. I would think they are able to produce more cars if there are less varients.
 
Why are so many people desiring for this company to be sub-aspirational?

You don't get to be disruptive, ground-breaking, cool and almost universally desirable by putting out "minimum viable product".
Many think that offering a high range EV with AP is aspirational and which is years ahead of the competition.

In addition, we want to make money now. [emoji3]
 
There seems to be an awful lot of people here who have not built a successful car company (I assume) that from the comfort of their armchair would presume to tell Tesla what they are doing wrong.

At some point you just got to let the winners do what they do and just decide how much money you want to bet.

Words are cheap. Tesla/Elon has earned the right to do what they think needs to be done to transition us to sustainable transport, and I don't think there is anyone in the world that can tell them their strategy is wrong because it has never been done before. Everything said is just an opinion, and right now, Tesla's opinion is the only one with any credibility behind it in this brave new world.
 
There seems to be an awful lot of people here who have not built a successful car company (I assume) that from the comfort of their armchair would presume to tell Tesla what they are doing wrong.

At some point you just got to let the winners do what they do and just decide how much money you want to bet.

Words are cheap. Tesla/Elon has earned the right to do what they think needs to be done to transition us to sustainable transport, and I don't think there is anyone in the world that can tell them their strategy is wrong because it has never been done before. Everything said is just an opinion, and right now, Tesla's opinion is the only one with any credibility behind it in this brave new world.

Indeed. Additionally, a lot of new forum members seem to be mistaking this thread for a discussion about the merits of Tesla as an ongoing business, which is what the Long-Term thread is for. I wish we had some other experienced traders and finance professionals back in here.
 
There seems to be an awful lot of people here who have not built a successful car company (I assume) that from the comfort of their armchair would presume to tell Tesla what they are doing wrong.

At some point you just got to let the winners do what they do and just decide how much money you want to bet.

Words are cheap. Tesla/Elon has earned the right to do what they think needs to be done to transition us to sustainable transport, and I don't think there is anyone in the world that can tell them their strategy is wrong because it has never been done before. Everything said is just an opinion, and right now, Tesla's opinion is the only one with any credibility behind it in this brave new world.

True words of wisdom. I have to admit I have my fair share of constructive feedback for Tesla but in the end Tesla has done a great job getting here and they're the most qualified determining the path forward. Just too bad they didn't include folding seats on the X... could have saved AlMc's sig reservation. :)
 
Again, I'm sorry for posting so much negative material. The positive is well represented on this forum, so I feel that there's no need being a cheerleader. I love Tesla and I'm emotionally invested (as well as financially of course) in them having long-term success. So, I can't help but seeing the negatives also.

Another thought I had was this. What has been the single biggest headache and complaint on the Model S? Easily, it is the retracting door handles. I mean, hands, down it has caused the most issues. One little thing that is different than the other cars has not worked right at all. So, I can't help but think what a dang nightmare these auto-opening front doors and falcon rear doors are going to be. I just don't get bringing that kind of complexity and cost to yourself when you are a fledgling auto maker. These 2 features caused huge delays and massive amounts of money - neither of which Tesla could afford to lose (time or money).

I stand by my opinion that these 2 features (as well as the HEPA filter) will sell very few cars (and actually may net a loss of sales due to people not understanding them) and make Tesla no money. And when I said Tesla should have made this car a $55-$60k starting price SUV, many people said that Tesla never intended to make this a mass market car. Well, I hate to tell everyone, but a car that starts at $55-$60k and runs about $80-$90k with options is NOT a mass market car. That is the range Tesla needed to be in for this car to sell 50,000 a year. They may sell 30k next year, but I doubt they'll ever sell that many again (~20k a year starting 2017). IMO of course. Been wrong before. Could be wrong this time. Hoping so.

Company will make alot more money selling a $100,000 car vs. a $60,000 car. It isn't like they could double the production volume with normal door handles and back doors.
 
So, in 5 years, Porsche will be releasing a vehicle with technology superior to what Tesla is selling today? Great media spin lol. Tesla has said its vehicles will have 500-600 miles of range and will be able to charged in 15-20 minutes. My bet is Tesla vehicles will be capable of this well before Porsche has a "final concept".

Did Merkel just acknowledge that Tesla's technology is superior to the technology currently being used by German Automobile manufacturers? I wonder what type of arrangement Tesla is working out with Germany about the EU charging standard.

Volkswagen’s Porsche unit this month unveiled a four-seater electric sports car at the Frankfurt International Auto Show that may challenge Tesla. The Mission E accelerates faster than a 911, charges in just 15 minutes and is due to reach the market in five years. The car will be “better than a Tesla,” Matthias Mueller, the former Porsche chief, said at the event. Mueller took over as head of Volkswagen after Winterkorn’s resignation.

Beat Tesla: Germany Urges Automakers to Dazzle After VW Scandal - Bloomberg Business
 
There seems to be an awful lot of people here who have not built a successful car company (I assume) that from the comfort of their armchair would presume to tell Tesla what they are doing wrong.

At some point you just got to let the winners do what they do and just decide how much money you want to bet.

Words are cheap. Tesla/Elon has earned the right to do what they think needs to be done to transition us to sustainable transport, and I don't think there is anyone in the world that can tell them their strategy is wrong because it has never been done before. Everything said is just an opinion, and right now, Tesla's opinion is the only one with any credibility behind it in this brave new world.

+Infinity.

When is a mistake a good thing? We're looking at it. If Elon thinks the X as it stands was a mistake to do the way they did it, I've got two words people: Double Down.
 
True words of wisdom. I have to admit I have my fair share of constructive feedback for Tesla but in the end Tesla has done a great job getting here and they're the most qualified determining the path forward. Just too bad they didn't include folding seats on the X... could have saved AlMc's sig reservation. :)

Dave: When Flux posted above about getting some professional opinions/strategies/analysis...he *may* not have been talking about you....BUT you were the first person I thought of.....I will buy the beer and make sure it arrives cold at your home when you and CapOppressor hold another Google chat!:biggrin:

+Infinity.

When is a mistake a good thing? We're looking at it. If Elon thinks the X as it stands was a mistake to do the way they did it, I've got two words people: Double Down.

Different frame of reference from me. I accept that. Peace
 
+Infinity.

When is a mistake a good thing? We're looking at it. If Elon thinks the X as it stands was a mistake to do the way they did it, I've got two words people: Double Down.

This is an interesting take. I'm inclined to believe it. My sense is that when Musk says stuff about the Model X being more than should be done, I think the idea is that no competitor would be damn fool enough to try to take an SUV that far. Musk and Tesla are exploring their limits. And they are also redefining the terms of competition. Quite likely they are creating new moats for Tesla.

When the Model S came out there were problems with the receding door handles. Apparently this is not the challenge it once was. It's trivial to put them in the Model X, and it will be no problem at all for Models 3 or Y. At least one competitor has copied this. I suspect this will be the case with falcon wind doors and Bioweapon Defense HEPA Systems, and other challenging elements. Once Tesla foolishly developed such novelties, they remain in Tesla's arsenal forever, and few competitors will attempt to imitate. Tesla is just loco like that.

Many posters seem to be dealing with anxiety around this whole launch. We're simply going to need to see the Model X for ourselves and see solid sales results before much of the anxiety will be dispelled. I would encourage every Tesla investor to test drive a Model X at the first opportunity. This will do a lot to dispelled doubt. But in the meantime it is natural to latch on to any perceived weakness of the idea of the Model X as a focal point for one's anxiety. Even if the Model X were the perfect 110 Consumer Reports scoring car of the millennium, it would be necessary to invent imagined flaws in it to give out anxiety some definite object to fixate upon. This is just human nature. So I would encourage us simply to take a deep breath and simply acknowledge whatever anxious or fearful feelings we may have in the present moment. Accept the uncertainty of the present moment. And as I say to my yoga student, breathe into that.

If we can breathe into this place of uncertainty, we may find that this is actually a very good opportunity to accumulate more shares or to let go of them.
 
Like you said in an earlier post, investors should embrace this. Unless you're trying to sell your shares in the very near term, all the negativity and speculation is great from a buyer's perspective. If Model X was unanimously perfect and it was a forgone conclusion that the vehicle will be a hit, TSLA would trade much higher than the ~$250 level. The uncertainty keeps the price low and I love it. IMO, when it's time to start voicing doubts about the model 3, we will all look back and think how stupid it was to doubt how great the Model X was.

I also think that Tesla will use these "problems" to their advantage. Once they run through their backlog and demand starts to tail off, they can introduce new features that accommodate to the currently dissatisfied customers. If the car was perfect today, it'd be much harder to pull these demand levers.

This is why I went all in with options well under $280 divided into 3 tranches. 1/3 Jan 16, 1/3 Mar. 16, 1/3 Jan 17. I'm not the least bit concerned this won't work. Even if my 16s expire worthless. The 17s will cover all that exposure and provide at least as much return as buying the stock outright. It's just a matter of real and useful information infiltrating down to the common person. Seriously, just ask 10 strangers you meet this week if they know the range of a Tesla Model X. If they even know what one is they won't have a clue what the data is. Then ask them about the Supercharger network! Lastly, ask them if they have ever heard of a single model of car that sold for full MSRP for 4 years without a style change. To every buyer!!

The investment community is constantly trying to judge the performance of Tesla against traditional industry suppliers. They all use marketing and Tesla has ZERO! The details of the company, product and quality will take years to infiltrate the masses. But when it finally hits with the Model 3 it will be a tidal wave. That's why the stock is overvalued in the traditional sense. We've never been in this place before where a large cap. company who provides retail products (no matter the cost) doesn't advertise.

I think it is brilliant. In the simplest terms, spend your money creating a product people want instead of convincing them to buy a substandard or status quo one. That's why the rest of the field need aggressive sales people and dealerships.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.