Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[colettimj]

I remember we had this conversation back in 2014 regarding the terrible nature of L2 charging rollout and how companies are just not installing these where they make sense. e.g. installing a charger outside of a Wallgreens or CVS... who in their right mind is spending more than just a few minutes in these places? This was done with the thought of PHEVs, and their need to charge everywhere they go. BEVs, even shorter range ones like the i3 and Leaf, just plain don't care about a 5 minute charge stop as that is too short for meaningful charging on L2.

So yes, Anything with 200 miles, even if it isn't the best thing in the world, should help change people's frame of mind as it relates to BEVs. Because the dynamic doesn't just become this need to charge *everywhere* you go, but instead thinking more about infrastructure to charge once a day outside of a roadtrip. So this means L2 charging only makes sense where you would expect to spend 4+ hours, anywhere else should be L3 or nothing at all. This is the net-positive benefit of getting more long range EV's on the market as it puts things into this frame of mind.

Even if we hit this hypothetical day where everyone has 500 miles of range, you would still likely look at L2 charging being a 4+ hour event, and all else being L3. You would still only be looking at L3 from a "road-trip" perspective, which overall limits the amount of real infrastructure needed.

Anyway, I'm still not convinced that GM is doing this for more than compliance reasons (even federal regulations require a certain fleet average MPG rating), but am glad to see a 200+ mile car come from someone other than Tesla!

My concern is that the Bolt will end up as the vehicle equivalent of the IBM PCjr. I'd much rather it be a competent (if not flashy) BEV that has 200+ mile range and spreads the idea to the masses that BEVs are the future.

 

[jesselivenomore]

Hah!

You jinxed it! Dropping precipitously now.

LOL

Heh, still closed green, very impressive. It would be a good opportunity to add the next few days if we get dragged down by the general market.

 

[Twiddler]

My concern is that the Bolt will end up as the vehicle equivalent of the IBM PCjr. I'd much rather it be a competent (if not flashy) BEV that has 200+ mile range and spreads the idea to the masses that BEVs are the future.

I LOVED my PCjr!!

 

[FluxCap]

I LOVED my PCjr!!

I played the crap out of some JumpMan on my best friend's PCJr.

 

[Papafox]

Can someone solve this mystery: why did most of my ITM leaps and Jun17 calls drop 3-5% today, even though TSLA closed slightly higher? The good news is that if you're shopping for ITM leaps, there's a 3-5% sale underway ; )

 

[Scott Ales]

Heh, still closed green, very impressive. It would be a good opportunity to add the next few days if we get dragged down by the general market.

Yes! Well poised for a better day.

 

[MikeC]

Can someone solve this mystery: why did most of my ITM leaps and Jun17 calls drop 3-5% today, even though TSLA closed slightly higher? The good news is that if you're shopping for ITM leaps, there's a 3-5% sale underway ; )

Probably because they're thinly traded with a wide bid-ask - they might have been in the higher range yesterday and the lower range today. Depending on the strike that could be a 5% difference right there. Plus lower volume today doesn't help IV.

 

[hobbes]

First payment requests for Sig X has been mailed: Final Payment Time : )
... with an estimated delivery of Nov 23 . How long before deliveries does this usually happen for Model S?

 

[jesselivenomore]

Wondering if this has anything to do with today's strength?

Tesla Powerwall Powers Up Home Battery Market TSLA AMZN GM TGT - Investors.com

Tesla Motors Inc Powerwall to Make its Way in Vermont

Is the $37.5 a month lease price new info? How much would customers save in their utility bill per month leasing a powerwall?

 

[MitchJi]

...build a truly competitive long-range, high power EV. But the Bolt is a mirage so far from a company that simply does not deserve an ounce of trust until it proves it has changed its culture from one of denying liability for killing its customers and deliberate, sustained hostility towards retiring the combustion engine. Until then, the Bolt is smoke, mirrors and to use a term from the software industry: vaporware.

I think that they are as serious about the Bolt as they are about the Volt. They would prefer it if both of them do well. But they're clearly not as committed as Tesla. I fully expect a competent to very good EV.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

A statement from Elon about a 2nd or 3rd Gigafactory, or a statement about current ORDERS for the Powerwall and Powerpack should do the trick.

 

[mmd]

Wondering if this has anything to do with today's strength?

Tesla Powerwall Powers Up Home Battery Market TSLA AMZN GM TGT - Investors.com

Tesla Motors Inc Powerwall to Make its Way in Vermont

Is the $37.5 a month lease price new info? How much would customers save in their utility bill per month leasing a powerwall?

The pricing info seems new. I think, the answer depends on if there is net metering, number of power outages and difference in time-of-use electricity rates in Vermont.

Few questions based on that article (assuming that is a reliable source):
1. The upfront cost is $6500, I believe for the 10 kwh battery pack and inverter (nothing mentioned in article). Not sure if it includes installation. If I remember right, that pack was presented as a $3K system back in April. Not sure for how much Tesla will sell this directly to end customers from whom they got tons of orders back in April.
2. Is Tesla not fulfilling the orders it already received back in April from the launch event first? Are they abandoning the direct-to-customer sale model for these? Anyone here with a delivery date for their powerwall?
3. The article quotes $45M-$50M powerwall revenue in Q4. I don't recall seeing this in any of the recent letters. Anyone knows the source of this information? Was it from April launch, when Tesla expected power walls to be shipping by summer? 500 of these (presumed) $3K systems being purchased by GMP amounts to $1.5M revenue for Tesla.

 

[Papafox]

Probably because they're thinly traded with a wide bid-ask - they might have been in the higher range yesterday and the lower range today. Depending on the strike that could be a 5% difference right there. Plus lower volume today doesn't help IV.

Yep, my ITM leaps are thinly traded and I did see some large bid to ask spreads. This answer makes sense. Thanks!

 

[maoing]

Tesla pulls out of Detroit's 2016 North American International Auto Show

Auto Show organizers confirmed to 7 Action News that electric vehicle maker pulled out of the show at the last minute. Maps of the Cobo Center show floor have included Tesla for months.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

EM still in Paris at COP21, later today in talks with Mike Bloomberg at the Climate Summit for Local Leaders (#Cities4Climate), agenda, speakers, including livestream and google hangout.

Update:
Musk reiterating need for carbon tax (twitter, twitter).

 

[Scott Ales]

EM still in Paris at COP21, later today in talks with Mike Bloomberg at the Climate Summit for Local Leaders (#Cities4Climate), agenda, speakers, including livestream and google hangout.

Update:
Musk reiterating need for carbon tax (twitter, twitter).

We had some friends over last night for dinner and the subject of Terrorism came up, big surprise huh? I expressed my opinion that we should de-fund Isis by reducing our appetite for oil. That met with mixed reviews mostly because my very dear friends just can't imagine a world without fossil fuels. They truly believe that we cannot run the world without it. So I asked them if Isis were funded by diamond sales would they buy a diamond. They all kindly agreed they would not.

I believe we are at a tipping point of a different nature than global warming. One that makes it socially irresponsible to waste fossil fuels when not needed. One that will finally make switching to EVs, solar, and battery systems not just about how they must "Pay" for themselves. Which has been a thorn in my side for years. I have expressed this before. No one expects their granite counter-tops to Pay for themselves.

The recognition that most terrorism is funded by oil could possibly change the way people see things. That final push to go ahead with solar, wind, batteries, or EVs. Or, invest in the companies that support those markets. I really don't think that is a stretch. While there will always be hardcore ICE supporters, I'm only interested in the movement away from FF and how fast it is happening. Not that it is absolute. You can never please everyone.

 

[vgrinshpun]

EM still in Paris at COP21, later today in talks with Mike Bloomberg at the Climate Summit for Local Leaders (#Cities4Climate), agenda, speakers, including livestream and google hangout.

Update:
Musk reiterating need for carbon tax (twitter, twitter).

Thank you for the links!

My personal favorite is this tweet from Bloomberg:

 

[Bobbyducati]

im guessing max pain in play today, 225$

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

No position, but Tesla does look awefully strong at the moment from a trading perspective. The dip today is likely an attempt by the big boys to get very long the stock. If I had $ to invest, I would put some into TSLA at the moment. I am shocked it didn't go under $200.00 and see this as a positive sign for the stock. In addition, Musk seems to be addressing some of the issues that were pissing me off about the brand. Good luck.

 

[Ugliest1]

This aired (in BC, anyway) on Wednesday night, Discovery Channel. Includes a "stealth" Model-S-as-public-outdoor-movie-theatre driven by Leilani Munter. I was especially upset by the shark fin part. Ends with a positive message and their tagline is StartWith1Thing. Hope this gets wide distribution... EVs are portrayed as a big part of the solution (although cow farts are a problem).

US: http://racingextinction.com (may also get this through the US DISCOVERY CHANNEL UNVEILS 2015-2016 UPFRONT SLATE : Discovery Press Web)

Canada: Watch video online | Discovery