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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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Massive green candles for SCTY and TSLA in the last 20 minutes while the market has kept slumping. Any news not been mentioned here? Doubt it's CR.

Maybe because this is unsustainable, and TSLA and SCTY have the solution:

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OK, not really. But the day is coming.
 
Founders VIN #17 is apparently being delivered. VIN #13 was delivered 11/26. It sure looks like we won't be seeing more than 100 Model X delivered this year but we'll see. In any event the half full version of this is the delivery rate is definitely picking up.
 
I am consistently shocked at how oddly the SP moves on no or little news. Including this morning. While I am extraordinarily comfortable being a fundamental long term bull, I cannot get my head around any reasonable strategy for short term investing. Not sure I'll be contributing much moving forward because of this acknowledgement. But I will be watching you all weigh in regularly still.

Best to all!


For the vast majority of times TSLA, or any stock, will follow the market. They may be relatively stronger or weaker on that particular day, or they may have higher or lower beta, but the direction is generally determined by the overall market, S&P, Nasdaq etc. Only rarely do stocks have individual news that will allow it to trade on its own. So if you want to make sense of any stocks short term price movements, it is best to look to the market as a whole. For long term movements that falls to how a company's fundamentals perform.

So if there is any shocker, it was not that TSLA was down at the open, but rather, now that the market has continued to make lows, TSLA is actually green.
 

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Tesla Expresses Optimism to Credit Suisse -- Market Talk

Today 11:36 AM ET (Dow Jones)Print
11:36 ET - Tesla (TSLA) is ramping up production of its Model X SUV and expects to reach "several hundred" per week some time this month, the company told Credit Suisse. That's important because the Model X had a slower-than-expected launch this year. TSLA also said it expects its Model S to reach the top market-share position in Europe for the first time in its price segment and that the company should hit its 4Q deliveries forecast of 17K vehicles. This as the company still is targeting positive free cash flow in 1Q. TSLA also told the investment bank that its current gross margin is disappointing and below what the company thinks they can be. Shares rise 0.4% amid the broader market's pullback. ([email protected]; @mramseywsj)




 

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Tesla Expresses Optimism to Credit Suisse -- Market Talk

Today 11:36 AM ET (Dow Jones)Print
11:36 ET - Tesla (TSLA) is ramping up production of its Model X SUV and expects to reach "several hundred" per week some time this month, the company told Credit Suisse. That's important because the Model X had a slower-than-expected launch this year. TSLA also said it expects its Model S to reach the top market-share position in Europe for the first time in its price segment and that the company should hit its 4Q deliveries forecast of 17K vehicles. This as the company still is targeting positive free cash flow in 1Q. TSLA also told the investment bank that its current gross margin is disappointing and below what the company thinks they can be. Shares rise 0.4% amid the broader market's pullback. ([email protected]; @mramseywsj)




This is spot on! thanks for the valuable input in the short term thread. Smart institutional money is piling in (or covering shorts) based on this official writing on the wall the Tesla will make its guidance and that Model X mass production is imminent...also the note about GM being likely to improve from here is a nice headwind as well.

This is why TSLA is in an inverse direction fromt he market today.
 
I am consistently shocked at how oddly the SP moves on no or little news. Including this morning. While I am extraordinarily comfortable being a fundamental long term bull, I cannot get my head around any reasonable strategy for short term investing. Not sure I'll be contributing much moving forward because of this acknowledgement. But I will be watching you all weigh in regularly still.

Best to all!


Selling covered/uncovered calls using margin while holding (since 2012) long term TSLA position worked pretty well for me for the past couple of years. I've been less successful in directional bets.
 
This is spot on! thanks for the valuable input in the short term thread. Smart institutional money is piling in (or covering shorts) based on this official writing on the wall the Tesla will make its guidance and that Model X mass production is imminent...also the note about GM being likely to improve from here is a nice headwind as well.

This is why TSLA is in an inverse direction fromt he market today.

yes, this is basically a Q4 preannoucement from tesla that they will hit Q4 guidance. This is huge
 
I agree. Anyone have a concern on how the market will react to the second part of the statement about disappointing margins?

The next big catalyst is going cash flow positive...............

Keep in mind they are disappointed about the GM being in the mid 20s as opposed to approaching 30. As far as disappointments go I'll take that. Beside once the growing pains of the X are gone this should self correct.
 
I agree. Anyone have a concern on how the market will react to the second part of the statement about disappointing margins?

The next big catalyst is going cash flow positive...............


I had to do a double take on that too. I think what they are saying is the current margins(~24%) that is already expected by the street is disappointing, because they feel it can be as high as 30%, which they said they are targeting within 18 months. I don't think they are saying their margins for q4 is below expectations. But the way it is worded is open to interpretation.
 
Keep in mind they are disappointed about the GM being in the mid 20s as opposed to approaching 30. As far as disappointments go I'll take that. Beside once the growing pains of the X are gone this should self correct.

Many of us believe that the GM will be depressed somewhat while the workforce has been increased to bring Model X to substantial production but substantial production hasn't taken place yet. Once the production level properly matches the workforce numbers, GM will increase. Also, production speed of X will start off slowly and build fairly quickly with time. As long as one is aware that these two issues are affecting GM, a lower GM in 4Q should not be a big problem.
 
I agree. Anyone have a concern on how the market will react to the second part of the statement about disappointing margins?

The next big catalyst is going cash flow positive...............

Which is going to be harder to achieve if margins don't improve. However, I suspect margins are under pressure because Tesla is offloading loaners and inventory by offering attractive deals to buyers. This should correct itself next quarter. But then again, Q1 will see a large delivery of lower-margin model X's (due to the signature discount). Maybe cash flow positive is only for Q2. Makes sense not to continue the rally on a mixed bag.
 
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