Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[vgrinshpun]

Just noticed an unusually high open interest for this week's $260 calls. Does somebody know something, or it is just a novice buying a lot of cheap lottery tickets?

 

[Zaxxon]

Not sure what we should consider a beat this quarter. I think the market would take anything over the minimum 50k as a beat, is 52k a blowout though?

No, I'd say 52k isn't a blowout, especially considering the original guidance was 55k. I would sure be happy with 52k, though!

I am looking forward to the day when Tesla meets or exceeds their annual guidance again. They beat in 2013 (22k vs 20k). They missed (almost certainly) in 2015, missed in 2014 (33k vs original 'over 35k' guidance), and have already walked back 2016 initial estimates of exiting 2015 at a 2000/wk run rate down to a 2016 average of 1600/1800 per week. I have a feeling that the 1600-1800 figure may have come from the 'wins should feel like wins' strategy change, and am hoping that Tesla is starting to get a handle on making predictions that they can possibly meet.

In any event, it's good to see the Model X starting to ramp. Here's to a prosperous 2016 for Tesla!

 

[MikeC]

Just noticed an unusually high open interest for this week's $260 calls. Does somebody know something, or it is just a novice buying a lot of cheap lottery tickets?

My guess is that it's easy to put out an order for a really high number of calls when they're only a few cents each. Probably just people swinging for the fences.

 

[chickensevil]

My guess is that it's easy to put out an order for a really high number of calls when they're only a few cents each. Probably just people swinging for the fences.

That would seem to imply a lot of bullish sentiment though. So we should potentially see a decent movement upwards on any amount of positive news this week, no?

- - - Updated - - -

Of course that being said, I would not expect to get that positive news until next week with regard to delivery numbers. So if I were to be swinging for the fences it would be on next week's options.

 

[Causalien]

My guess is that it's easy to put out an order for a really high number of calls when they're only a few cents each. Probably just people swinging for the fences.

$4000 bet. Novice

I'd do the same bet but add one more week though. The market has historically underpriced the volatility of the quarterly deliveries release.

 

[SBenson]

Just noticed an unusually high open interest for this week's $260 calls. Does somebody know something, or it is just a novice buying a lot of cheap lottery tickets?

Almost all of the open interest creation happened on Nov 20, 23 and a small bit on Nov 25 for around $1. Who ever placed the bet lost about half a million dollars so far.

 

[SuryaDham]

Almost all of the open interest creation happened on Nov 20, 23 and a small bit on Nov 25 for around $1. Who ever placed the bet lost about half a million dollars so far.

Very important piece of information! Thank's SBenson!
How can you see that? Is there a publicly available Tool? I have IB. Is there a way to see it?

 

[mmd]

As I speculated in post #18260, Model X delivery is back to mid-2016!

Tesla has often changed dates at will. Who knows if they will change the estimated delivery date for this new X90D again? I think, better to wait a bit more before trying to conclude anything.
Indications are that the Model X ramp is slower than expected rather than faster. See post below from DeenaB with sig under 500, who is getting a run around whenever she tries to get a firm delivery date.
Model X Timeline - From Prototype to Production - Page 36

90D Deliveries Begin Early 2016 - Page 3

Confirmed, 90D is back to showing Mid 2016. I lose access to the Design Studio after today so others will have to keep an eye on it.

 

[Bobbyducati]

quite a move on almost no volume. something we dont know?? max pain looks like 230$, for reference.

 

[Johan]

Almost all of the open interest creation happened on Nov 20, 23 and a small bit on Nov 25 for around $1. Who ever placed the bet lost about half a million dollars so far.

... On one side of the trade yes. On the opposite side the call writer made off like a bandit.

I'd also be interested to know how you find the historical information on an option like that, thanks.

 

[SBenson]

SuryaDham, Johan, Given that this is exchange reported data you might be able to see it at a number of places. Start with your broker and see if they can help you. You should be able to certainly see that type of information on power-tools like Bloomberg terminal as well.

 

[Bobbyducati]

just hit 237, what crazy action today. have to say my faith is restored since yesterday.

 

[SuryaDham]

ok, I found it on IB. For anyone who's interested: In IB TWS: Analytical tools/Option Analysis/open interest by strike.
It can only go back about 6 weeks, and it doesn't display a chart, but one has to klick through single days.
Not perfect, but the information is there...

 

[pGo]

ok, I found it on IB. For anyone who's interested: In IB TWS: Analytical tools/Option Analysis/open interest by strike.
It can only go back about 6 weeks, and it doesn't display a chart, but one has to klick through single days.
Not perfect, but the information is there...

Thanks. Anyone with think or swim knows where this data is?

 

[pGo]

Almost all of the open interest creation happened on Nov 20, 23 and a small bit on Nov 25 for around $1. Who ever placed the bet lost about half a million dollars so far.

Great info. Thanks.

 

[jesselivenomore]

As I speculated in post #18260, Model X delivery is back to mid-2016!



90D Deliveries Begin Early 2016 - Page 3

Thanks. Model X order spike confirmed.

 

[SuryaDham]

just hit 237, what crazy action today. have to say my faith is restored since yesterday.

not at all what I expected for this week.
My theory was that the stock would move slowly and would be pinned around max pain at 227,50 on low volume by thursday.
Sold some covered calls some days ago for the first time in a really long time...
worst timing...

 

[maoing]

in your logic, how does the new orders affect the delivery date of existing orders which made a few years back? I would think it might be indication for slower X ramp up.

Thanks. Model X order spike confirmed.

 

[jesselivenomore]

in your logic, how does the new orders affect the delivery date of existing orders which made a few years back? I would think it might be indication for slower X ramp up.

You're right, thanks for the correction. P90D order spike confirmed.

 

[FluxCap]

Santa rally commences today.