Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[maoing]

sundaymorning, here is my thoughts.
1) The reason I'm not sure if the storm ended is the uncertainty of ER. One positive thinking is all negativities has been priced in. I truely hope so, but look at this discussion about big EPS miss. So far it's not mentioned publicly yet. But my ballpark calculation is 1000 cars miss will bring $30M GM loss (assume $30K GM/car), divided by 150 millions shares, so it's equivalent to reduce the EPS by $0.20, while Q4 guidance is 0.3-0.35, it's in-line with chicken's estimate. Since 2013 Q1, TM has not been missed guidance for two consecutive quarters yet, so how does market react to this is a risk. This is short-term FA although it has nothing to do with TSLA long term.
2) Momemtum stock? It's true in strong uptrend market which TSLA has a lot of expectation, for example guidance beat for each quarter, EU market excitement, China market excitement, Gigafactory excitement. What's the near term excitement now? huge 2015 guidance maybe, but "potential" disappointing ER needs to face at first, Model X release not going to happen in a few months. Lacking near term excitement and expectation, it's hard to stir momentum as in 2013/2014 at this point;
3) Short-term TA: Surely long term investor can ignore short term noise, but this is short term thread, right? So it should have different investment philosophy when people come to here. The rebounce volume for yesterday and today is weak (less than 4M shares for each day), in the meantime the broad market also up a lot. My TA tell me that the rebounce might shoot above 205 until hit the down trend resistance line between 208-209. Until TSLA can close 210 with big volume (7-9M shares), I'll turn more bullish.

Congrats on your profits, I would have to disagree that a storm is brewing, if there was a storm, I think its been weathered. When playing short term, it's critical you know when to hold and when to fold.. If you've gotten back your shares yesterday, then you got a great deal at a very opportune time. My gut feeling is that there will be plenty of people reading this board who will end up chasing TSLA upwards very soon. This is a momentum stock, and macroeconomic conditions are showing signs of change in the near term, heading for the positive. Who knows what tomorrow will bring, but glad momentum is back and I'm loving how momo stocks like NfLX are crushing the market right now. I hope AMZN does the same. As of this moment, the Nekkei and Shanghai looks great, after a 7% drop China gained back about 6% so far. US jobless claims back to normal after last week, I think we're in the clear for next week.

 

[Papafox]

Looking back, I see that the 90 point swan dive by TSLA in recent months was actually a perfect storm of unrelated negatives and perceived negatives that were mostly blown out of proportion. Catalysts for the decline included:
* Elon making a TSLA stock overpriced remark followed shortly afterward by the strange Adam Jonas comments
* Market worries over momo stocks such as Netflix and Amazon. Tesla was lumped in with these somewhat dissimilar companies
* Further delay of Model X reveal
* Several analysts predicting a major market correction was just around the corner, and a bumpy ride on the major exchanges ensued
* Overexpectations for the D event
* Oil prices plummeting
* Shorts jumping onboard the descending price
* Word of weakness in China that Elon believes can be corrected

At last we have likely bounced off the bottom. Now the dynamics change. Shorts would be nuts to hang in any longer because even if they hope for another 10 point drop they face the prospect of a 100 point climb. Shorts are now going to be bailing out, which could be the cause of this reversal. The droves of potential TSLA investors who didn't want to catch falling knives are soon ready to jump in, which will persuade more shorts to jump out, which will ... oh, you get the idea. Given the rather weak reasons for this decline, the reversal was inevitable. Tesla has been production constrained, not demand constrained. Most of the worries have been demand-related. The production issues of the past summer have apparently been addressed when you consider the best estimates of weekly production given by forum members. Bring on the 2015 50% or greater growth estimate during Q4 ER. If we fall a few hundred cars short of 33,000 Teslas delivered in 2014 the growth estimates for 2015 and reassurances on Model X reveal and production will more than compensate.

Maoing, glad to hear you've bought in.

 

[AlMc]

Remember 'max pain' for the 23rd is $200. I hope we end at 'more pain' for shorts: $205-6?

 

[jhm]

Looking back, I see that the 90 point swan dive by TSLA in recent months was actually a perfect storm of unrelated negatives and perceived negatives that were mostly blown out of proportion. Catalysts for the decline included:
* Elon making a TSLA stock overpriced remark followed shortly afterward by the strange Adam Jonas comments
* Market worries over momo stocks such as Netflix and Amazon. Tesla was lumped in with these somewhat dissimilar companies
* Further delay of Model X reveal
* Several analysts predicting a major market correction was just around the corner, and a bumpy ride on the major exchanges ensued
* Overexpectations for the D event
* Oil prices plummeting
* Shorts jumping onboard the descending price
* Word of weakness in China that Elon believes can be corrected

At last we have likely bounced off the bottom. Now the dynamics change. Shorts would be nuts to hang in any longer because even if they hope for another 10 point drop they face the prospect of a 100 point climb. Shorts are now going to be bailing out, which could be the cause of this reversal. The droves of potential TSLA investors who didn't want to catch falling knives are soon ready to jump in, which will persuade more shorts to jump out, which will ... oh, you get the idea. Given the rather weak reasons for this decline, the reversal was inevitable. Tesla has been production constrained, not demand constrained. Most of the worries have been demand-related. The production issues of the past summer have apparently been addressed when you consider the best estimates of weekly production given by forum members. Bring on the 2015 50% or greater growth estimate during Q4 ER. If we fall a few hundred cars short of 33,000 Teslas delivered in 2014 the growth estimates for 2015 and reassurances on Model X reveal and production will more than compensate.

Maoing, glad to hear you've bought in.

Right on. To add to your flock of swans:
* Strong dollar, Swiss franc and currency woes
* ECB Quantitative Easing

Meanwhile, Tesla has been blowing out new Suprchargers and even further below the radar the Destination Charging Program. There are now 358 SC locations and over 800 destination charging locations world wide. All this is fairly low profile, but it supports a ground swell of demand and goodwill. At some point people will wake up and recognize that Tesla has a huge lead on the auto industry. What's better than $2/gal gas? Free, fast charging everywhere!
Meet Tesla Motors, Inc.'s "Destination Charging" -- the Fast-Growing Network Beyond Superchargers (TSLA)

 

[SteveG3]

sundaymorning, here is my thoughts.
1) The reason I'm not sure if the storm ended is the uncertainty of ER. One positive thinking is all negativities has been priced in. I truely hope so, but look at this discussion about big EPS miss. So far it's not mentioned publicly yet. But my ballpark calculation is 1000 cars miss will bring $30M GM loss (assume $30K GM/car), divided by 150 millions shares, so it's equivalent to reduce the EPS by $0.20, while Q4 guidance is 0.3-0.35, it's in-line with chicken's estimate. Since 2013 Q1, TM has not been missed guidance for two consecutive quarters yet, so how does market react to this is a risk. This is short-term FA although it has nothing to do with TSLA long term.
2) Momemtum stock? It's true in strong uptrend market which TSLA has a lot of expectation, for example guidance beat for each quarter, EU market excitement, China market excitement, Gigafactory excitement. What's the near term excitement now? huge 2015 guidance maybe, but "potential" disappointing ER needs to face at first, Model X release not going to happen in a few months. Lacking near term excitement and expectation, it's hard to stir momentum as in 2013/2014 at this point;
3) Short-term TA: Surely long term investor can ignore short term noise, but this is short term thread, right? So it should have different investment philosophy when people come to here. The rebounce volume for yesterday and today is weak (less than 4M shares for each day), in the meantime the broad market also up a lot. My TA tell me that the rebounce might shoot above 205 until hit the down trend resistance line between 208-209. Until TSLA can close 210 with big volume (7-9M shares), I'll turn more bullish.

maoing, to be clear off the bat, I'm glad you're here and I value your contributions.

as to the points in your post here. #1&2 overlap to me. I've not looked at the numbers in detail, but I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla missed on deliveries by 1K cars, and if that does translate to a $.20 miss, I agree that is not to be ignored as a risk factor. the stock certainly might sell off on that, and quite a bit. though it may not, or may rebound quickly. I think it will come down to the context Tesla presents this in and how trusting investors collectively are of this. Right off the bat, Tesla can point to reason...~ "we have a 4 month order backlog for the Model S. demand is not the issue. we fell 1,000 vehicles behind on deliveries due to complications in delivering our first AWD versions of the Model S. That has been resolved." Normally I'd be quite concerned the market would ignore reason and just see this as a miss, and hit the stock. However, we've seen the market repeatedly look long-term and rationally at Tesla rather than it's typical behavior with most stocks. At Detroit, Elon made the confusing comment about no GAAP profits until 2020, and apparently Tesla followed up with analysts saying ~"don't be concerned by what Elon said... no need to change your models." I think most stocks would have been killed on this... I mean at least 30% down, and Tesla went down 5% (mostly attributed to a different comment about China) and has now rebounded back. This is no guarantee that a $.20 miss will be heard within it's rational context, but I think that's considerably more likely to happen with Tesla than one would generally expect.

as to your third point. if one thinks TA has predictive value, (and if the TA looks negative) clearly one would be concerned. I don't have any concern about this third point.

fwiw, it seems Tesla will very likely give some clarification on the earnings call reconciling Musk's no GAAP profits until 2020 with prior guidance the company has given. this will most likely involve some discussion of capex needs in the coming years, and will underscore the wide gap between the volumes Tesla is aiming for in 2020 (and 2025) and what the analyst's have modeled. this may be bumpy, it may scare some investors, but it could also draw in other investors. there's a significant chance the net effect of this turns out to be negative for TSLA short-term, but it may be positive quite quickly... I don't think there's a real way to know how that plays out in the very near term. long term, as Tesla starts hitting milestones (or not) to show their vision of the level of growth is more accurate than the analysts (or sooner or later at least some of the analysts start moving the volumes in their models closer to Tesla's objectives), this will be a positive (of course, or not... but my bet is they come closer to Tesla's vision than the analyst's).

 

[aznt1217]

Right on. To add to your flock of swans:
* Strong dollar, Swiss franc and currency woes
* ECB Quantitative Easing

Meanwhile, Tesla has been blowing out new Suprchargers and even further below the radar the Destination Charging Program. There are now 358 SC locations and over 800 destination charging locations world wide. All this is fairly low profile, but it supports a ground swell of demand and goodwill. At some point people will wake up and recognize that Tesla has a huge lead on the auto industry. What's better than $2/gal gas? Free, fast charging everywhere!
Meet Tesla Motors, Inc.'s "Destination Charging" -- the Fast-Growing Network Beyond Superchargers (TSLA)

I'm pretty sure the FX question was asked in the last earnings call. Deepak answered by saying they don't do any financial market hedging (a la airlines style), but there's a product hedge in terms of price adjustments which is partially why I'm not too worried-- they can always go into the markets or set up their accounts in a way that they can pay vendors/hold the money in certain locales with no issues (barring any catastrophic/Putin-like events)

 

[maoing]

Maoing, glad to hear you've bought in.

Thanks. I agree my stomach is not as big as many of your guys in this down turn, even I have but I still prefer not to swallow such BIG loss. So short term trading is a reasonable strategy to weather through storms. I'm LONG TSLA for long term, this is not contradicting of doing bearish trade in short term.

- - - Updated - - -

Steve, I appreciate your feedback and it's constructive for the discussion.

It's hard to predict what's exact market reaction of the next ER. But risk is risk, nobody can ignore it until it's clarified. So my general feeling is before ER, the risk will surpress the momentum of TSLA going up. Post ER, the stock could rally immediately, could get hit but rebounce quickly. So my plan is to keep some reserves to wait for a dip which can relieve the risk. It's likely happen around ER as my gut feeling.

maoing, to be clear off the bat, I'm glad you're here and I value your contributions.

as to the points in your post here. #1&2 overlap to me. I've not looked at the numbers in detail, but I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla missed on deliveries by 1K cars, and if that does translate to a $.20 miss, I agree that is not to be ignored as a risk factor. the stock certainly might sell off on that, and quite a bit. though it may not, or may rebound quickly. I think it will come down to the context Tesla presents this in and how trusting investors collectively are of this. Right off the bat, Tesla can point to reason...~ "we have a 4 month order backlog for the Model S. demand is not the issue. we fell 1,000 vehicles behind on deliveries due to complications in delivering our first AWD versions of the Model S. That has been resolved." Normally I'd be quite concerned the market would ignore reason and just see this as a miss, and hit the stock. However, we've seen the market repeatedly look long-term and rationally at Tesla rather than it's typical behavior with most stocks. At Detroit, Elon made the confusing comment about no GAAP profits until 2020, and apparently Tesla followed up with analysts saying ~"don't be concerned by what Elon said... no need to change your models." I think most stocks would have been killed on this... I mean at least 30% down, and Tesla went down 5% (mostly attributed to a different comment about China) and has now rebounded back. This is no guarantee that a $.20 miss will be heard within it's rational context, but I think that's considerably more likely to happen with Tesla than one would generally expect.

as to your third point. if one thinks TA has predictive value, (and if the TA looks negative) clearly one would be concerned. I don't have any concern about this third point.

fwiw, it seems Tesla will very likely give some clarification on the earnings call reconciling Musk's no GAAP profits until 2020 with prior guidance the company has given. this will most likely involve some discussion of capex needs in the coming years, and will underscore the wide gap between the volumes Tesla is aiming for in 2020 (and 2025) and what the analyst's have modeled. this may be bumpy, it may scare some investors, but it could also draw in other investors. there's a significant chance the net effect of this turns out to be negative for TSLA short-term, but it may be positive quite quickly... I don't think there's a real way to know how that plays out in the very near term. long term, as Tesla starts hitting milestones (or not) to show their vision of the level of growth is more accurate than the analysts (or sooner or later at least some of the analysts start moving the volumes in their models closer to Tesla's objectives), this will be a positive (of course, or not... but my bet is they come closer to Tesla's vision than the analyst's).

 

[The Blue Owl]

Thanks. I agree my stomach is not as big as many of your guys in this down turn, even I have but I still prefer not to swallow such BIG loss. So short term trading is a reasonable strategy to weather through storms. I'm LONG TSLA for long term, this is not contradicting of doing bearish trade in short term.

For the record, I have never seen anything in your posts to make me doubt your sincerity. Trollish bear posts are annoying because they insult the reader's intelligence with their dishonesty (they purposefully ignore that part of reality which contradicts their thesis), but yours don't read that way to me. Rather, I find them a good counterbalance to the occasional, and equally annoying, trollish bull posts (which also ignore inconvenient facts).

Fortunately, this board doesn't have too many trollish posters of either kind. Ignore those few personal attacks and accusations of FUD and keep posting.

 

[maoing]

Thanks Familial. Yes, if people read my "bearish" posts from end of Nov., more or less, they can save some losses. The dangerous thing is "trollish bull posts" in this big down turn, some people keep in denial mode and pretend TSLA still in bull trend, but it only added more losses to the portfolio. TSLA is such a volatile stock, it's no doubt holding shares tight in uptrend, but I wouldn't agree to do the same in obvious downtrend. Short term wise, it actually doesn't matter what TSLA bulls thinking in this forum, the more important thing is to perceive what market and main street investors thinking.

For the record, I have never seen anything in your posts to make me doubt your sincerity. Trollish bear posts are annoying because they insult the reader's intelligence with their dishonesty (they purposefully ignore that part of reality which contradicts their thesis), but yours don't read that way to me. Rather, I find them a good counterbalance to the occasional, and equally annoying, trollish bull posts (which also ignore inconvenient facts).

Fortunately, this board doesn't have too many trollish posters of either kind. Ignore those few personal attacks and accusations of FUD and keep posting.

 

[FluxCap]

the more important thing is to perceive what market and main street investors thinking.

Agree 100%! Thank you again for your contributions here, maoing.

 

[kenliles]

Fortunately, this board doesn't have too many trollish posters of either kind. Ignore those few personal attacks and accusations of FUD and keep posting.

Agree 100%! Thank you again for your contributions here, maoing.

+1
+1

 

[FluxCap]

Closed very close to max pain, as Al noted. I'm betting there are some retail discussions over the weekend followed by buying Monday morning. We shall see.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Anyone look at data about Tesla Motors Twitter page? The number of people following Tesla has been increasing by somewhere between 300-500 every day. Although not necessarily a measure of where demand is, it's certainly an interesting measure of interest.

 

[All Your Bases]

Price for the Model S just vent significant up, here in Europe.

 

[jhm]

Price for the Model S just vent significant up, here in Europe.

Yup, were you aware of people placing orders in anticipation of this price adjustment?

 

[tdiggity]

These tshirts were distributed to employees today

One related thing: another thread mentioned that there might be a X reveal this week or soon. A distant friend's wife (not the one pictured wearing the shirt above) mentioned to me at a wedding last week that employees haven't seen the final X yet and that it may happen this week. The shirts pictured above may have been to celebrate that party. Or not, I don't know either of the two employees well enough to ask.

One more edit: the pic is from the factory not a showroom.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

These tshirts were distributed to employees today

View attachment 70089

Can you post a picture of the entire shirt?

 

[FredTMC]

Hmmm

 

[tdiggity]

Sorry, that's all they posted.

 

[Cattledog]

These tshirts were distributed to employees today

View attachment 70089

One related thing: another thread mentioned that there might be a X reveal this week or soon. A distant friend's wife (not the one pictured wearing the shirt above) mentioned to me at a wedding last week that employees haven't seen the final X yet and that it may happen this week. The shirts pictured above may have been to celebrate that party. Or not, I don't know either of the two employees well enough to ask.

Like. Looks like mirrors at least for the T-shirts. The rest looks pretty familiar, at least at the resolution of a B/W T-shirt. I don't think T-shirts get handed out for a summer reveal. Back to the fortune cookies...