Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[All Your Bases]

Yup, were you aware of people placing orders in anticipation of this price adjustment?

No information on that, - but i belive there was a good trend going in my cold part of the world. We really like AWD.

 

[bonnie]

These tshirts were distributed to employees today



One related thing: another thread mentioned that there might be a X reveal this week or soon. A distant friend's wife (not the one pictured wearing the shirt above) mentioned to me at a wedding last week that employees haven't seen the final X yet and that it may happen this week. The shirts pictured above may have been to celebrate that party. Or not, I don't know either of the two employees well enough to ask.

One more edit: the pic is from the factory not a showroom.

Hate to burst the bubble, BUT those shirts were distributed back after the factory was shut down so they could expand the lines. I'm positive. Because I have one of those shirts that was left over after distribution to employees.

Sorry. But the shirts were not distributed today (well, maybe to one or two that missed the original distribution) ...unless I have a time travel machine. Which would be awesome. But I don't. And I don't have an X, either.

 

[tdiggity]

Hate to burst the bubble, BUT those shirts were distributed back after the factory was shut down so they could expand the lines. I'm positive. Because I have one of those shirts that was left over after distribution to employees.

Sorry. But the shirts were not distributed today (well, maybe to one or two that missed the original distribution) ...unless I have a time travel machine. Which would be awesome. But I don't. And I don't have an X, either.

That's why I posted this, to see if this leads anywhere.

 

[bonnie]

Can you post a picture of the entire shirt?

Here you go:

 

[Curt Renz]

Elon Musk will be featured in "The Simpsons" cartoon TV episode on Sunday, January 25: Elon Musk Guest-Stars on The Simpsons - Businessweek

This may not seem investment related, but publicity of this nature could inspire more interest in the car and the stock, especially for a company that does not advertise.

 

[chickensevil]

Here you go:

View attachment 70094

Well thanks for the photo, but now I want to know what the card says cause the resolution is too low... Other than the 65000...

 

[sundaymorning]

sundaymorning, here is my thoughts.
1) The reason I'm not sure if the storm ended is the uncertainty of ER. One positive thinking is all negativities has been priced in. I truely hope so, but look at this discussion about big EPS miss. So far it's not mentioned publicly yet. But my ballpark calculation is 1000 cars miss will bring $30M GM loss (assume $30K GM/car), divided by 150 millions shares, so it's equivalent to reduce the EPS by $0.20, while Q4 guidance is 0.3-0.35, it's in-line with chicken's estimate. Since 2013 Q1, TM has not been missed guidance for two consecutive quarters yet, so how does market react to this is a risk. This is short-term FA although it has nothing to do with TSLA long term.
2) Momemtum stock? It's true in strong uptrend market which TSLA has a lot of expectation, for example guidance beat for each quarter, EU market excitement, China market excitement, Gigafactory excitement. What's the near term excitement now? huge 2015 guidance maybe, but "potential" disappointing ER needs to face at first, Model X release not going to happen in a few months. Lacking near term excitement and expectation, it's hard to stir momentum as in 2013/2014 at this point;
3) Short-term TA: Surely long term investor can ignore short term noise, but this is short term thread, right? So it should have different investment philosophy when people come to here. The rebounce volume for yesterday and today is weak (less than 4M shares for each day), in the meantime the broad market also up a lot. My TA tell me that the rebounce might shoot above 205 until hit the down trend resistance line between 208-209. Until TSLA can close 210 with big volume (7-9M shares), I'll turn more bullish.

Maoing, I was tied up all day and could not reply promptly, here's a quick thought, I apologize in advance for my typos as it is difficult to operate an iPhone for this forum:

1. You're not sure the storm ended bc of a possible EPS miss on 1,000 undelivered vehicles....

response: I don't deny that there will be a possible EPS miss, and my judgement on this matter is that the negative impact has already been priced in, especially with Elon's comment on China hitting almost every news outlet, also with the recent note by MS on a "downgrade," you would need to be living under a rock not to have already priced in the risk/return ratio of selling/holding Tesla.

The other part of your concern about 2 consecutive misses in a row may be due to you forgetting that the recent miss was neutralized by positives of a beat on EPS last Q. Which was why the stock rose after QR. The recent pullback was a culmination of X being delayed, macro economic worries related to oil, EU uncertainty, US unemployment data, and possible China GDP dropping to 7.0.

What we know now: X will be on time for 3rd Q. OPEC Secretary General has stated oil will rise again in "a month," I believe this to be true due to this bit of info coming from a high level executive with insider knowledge. OPEC usually cuts down production in November bc winter is usually a "low demand" season for oil and historically rises 2nd Q. GDP data from Q1 in the US of 2014 was negative and spiked as expected 2nd Q.. Although it is currently low demand season, OPEC chose not to cut supply as they usually do, driving oil prices much lower than expected taking Tesla with it and causing all kinds of fear and panic in the market. A slowdown in the global economy and oil demand seemed as though it may have impacted China, and the forewarning was the drop in oil prices. This was in fact not the case, China's GDP data did not drop anywhere near 7.0 as some bears have suggested, it came in at 7.4, missing by a mere .1 margin. The U.S economy on the other hand, continues to look strong, and will continue to grow in 2015-2016 as suggested by the IMF, which leads me to be bullish bc North America is our biggest market. Additionally, the EU will pump more than $1 trillion into their economy next year, a move likely to be beneficial to global economics almost immediately. So how will the market react to a miss? I want to remind you that the market is, by nature, forward looking, hence the price reflects this down channel we've already been experiencing. What most investors will be concerned about is demand, demand demand. If outlook for 2015 remains strong, that data alone will quash any worries about a Q's miss, or seating nuances.. Elon has made clear that Tesla has no demand issues , and won't advertise till at least 2016. Even with the overblown China news Tesla still doesn't need to advertise... An upside to this stock currently is that there are many people who sold in December for general tax purposes, waiting for the "30 day wash period" to end... How many of them will jump on to squeeze out 25 million shorts? No one knows but having them on the sideline favors Bulls..

2. Momentum stock hindsight and availability of news as a short term catalysts.

response: first, the "momentum stock effect." If you have followed this stock and forum as much as many veterans here, the momentum stock effect on NFLX and amzn earnings are very real, you should compare the price movement of these three companies simultaneously after earnings to see the correlation..

Secondly, your logic that in the absence of news Tesla cannot build momentum cannot be more flawed. How do you explain the mini momentum we've been experiencing the last several days in the absence of news on low volume? Although this thread is "short term," investors generally do not buy stocks without, having first, factoring in its long term potential. The two goes hand in hand, which was why it became a debate here whether to split up the two "short term" & "long term" threads. The idea that Tesla can only move forward with news is not without merit, yes news does drive Tesla exponentially, but "quiet periods" are expected in every investment. The difference between Tesla and other investments is that there is transparency in its future and blueprints have been provided in the gigafactory and model X coming online. Can you find these types of transparencies in Apple, Nflx, Amzn, FB, GoPro, Twitter, etc in terms of future products coming online? Yet, they're worth billions and the appetite for those stocks show in the volume of trades per day.. This is why people hold and buy this stock, not for "news" but they are willing to pay big money for transparencies favoring huge returns.

3. Short term investment.

response: investing is not as black and white as "short term only" or "long term only." This dilemma is somewhat explained above. But here's a historical data investors may want to weigh.:

Sept 2013 TSLA reached an ATH of $193, this was over a year and 3 months ago..
within two months the stock experienced 3 f@res and retreated to $120.50, a 37% drop. This drop imo was Teslas darkest hours due to the company being infant, the technology unproven and shows signs of imperfection, the stock also rose to over 500% in just 8 months, fear of a bubble was on everyone's mind... During this period, there were no talks of a gigafactory, x was at least 6 unconfirmed months away..

Today, January 2015, we dropped from an ATH of $287.xx of September to 185.50. A comparable 35% drop in 4 months... The difference in just 1 year and 3 months from the last drop is that TSLA is building a gigafactory, X confirmed for 3rd Q, Elon talking millions of Gen 3... Is this Teslas darkest hour? Not even close..

 

[bonnie]

Well thanks for the photo, but now I want to know what the card says cause the resolution is too low... Other than the 65000...

I knew it was a mistake to lay the card on the shirt.

 

[doggusfluffy]

I never thought I would say this, but it appeared there were boobs ruining the lines and distorting the graphics on that shirt. My how one's priorities change. :tongue:

 

[chickensevil]

I knew it was a mistake to lay the card on the shirt.

Yay! I always love the random factoids like this! Is the lines on the outside of the card the new flow through the factory?

 

[Auzie]

Yay! I always love the random factoids like this! Is the lines on the outside of the card the new flow through the factory?

The way I read the card there is only one line that will do both models. Disclaimer: I am usually not a card reader

 

[CaptainKirk]

The way I read the card there is only one line that will do both models. Disclaimer: I am usually not a card reader

I think what chickensevil was referring to is that the directional flow of the line on the front of a card is perhaps a clue of the S/X line's layout within the factory. It's small updates like these that I look forward to, thanks Bonnie!

 

[bonnie]

I think that line is just a stylized production flow - much more complex than that, with different subassemblies flowing in from different areas of the production floor. It's not a linear operation. Think more 'small tributaries feeding into a larger river'.

 

[Auzie]

I think what chickensevil was referring to is that the directional flow of the line on the front of a card is perhaps a clue of the S/X line's layout within the factory. It's small updates like these that I look forward to, thanks Bonnie!

I think all three of us agree, that must be graphic presentation of a flow through the factory. One production line for both models S and X.

 

[bonnie]

But I've seen the new lines and would disagree ... there will be parts of the lines in common, and parts not in common. It's a huge factory now, guys.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I think that line is just a stylized production flow - much more complex than that, with different subassemblies flowing in from different areas of the production floor. It's not a linear operation. Think more 'small tributaries feeding into a larger river'.

Bonnie, do you have any information that you can share about the body-in-white assembly line which was mentioned by Elon as being slated for installation in Q1. Are they in process of its installation? Perhaps close to completion?

Thanks.

 

[AlMc]

Bonnie, do you have any information that you can share about the body-in-white assembly line which was mentioned by Elon as being slated for installation in Q1. Are they in process of its installation? Perhaps close to completion?

Thanks.

Good question.....Bonnie? :wink:

 

[Auzie]

But I've seen the new lines and would disagree ... there will be parts of the lines in common, and parts not in common. It's a huge factory now, guys.

Thanks Bonnie.

We are just gulping up any little morsel of info that gets thrown out

When a big info like model X reveal gets thrown our way, we promise to go into a frenzy

 

[bonnie]

I last toured in late December, so no current info. Sorry!

 

[chickensevil]

I think that line is just a stylized production flow - much more complex than that, with different subassemblies flowing in from different areas of the production floor. It's not a linear operation. Think more 'small tributaries feeding into a larger river'.

Was just referring to the singular new assembly line that was built. This is all stuff, according to you, for the new line put in place in July. So it obviously wouldn't include the other parts of the factory. Just asking about the flow on the final assembly line since they had talked about making it basically one long line as opposed to a snaking pattern.

And to the other poster, yes they intend to run the MX through the same singular final assembly line. I don't remember what the latest number was that they assumed possible from this line but if I recall it was something like 2000 a week. Which would clearly be more than just for the MS. Don't hold me to the 2k number though... Really not remembering it off hand.

- - - Updated - - -

Anyway, its not really important. The design just struck me as very intentional styling. It doesn't really affect the price of TSLA (or tea in China). Just my own amusement.