Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[JRP3]

Sure, but my point was that swapping does not yet seem to be in effect, so I don't think we can really call it "goal executed" at this point in time. More like "goal pending".

 

[sundaymorning]

There is a requirement for quick recharge to receive the highest Zero Emmision Vehicle credit. At one point Tesla demonstrating that the quick battery swap technology was possible was sufficient for Tesla to receive the maximum ZEV credit. It didn't matter that they didn't have it deployed and that none of the vehicles had ever used it. Recently, that changed to require that a small amount of the vehicles actually were using that recharging technology. The movement on the battery swap stations and the "beta" status is probably just enough to qualify for the higher ZEV credit.

Fuel-cell vehicles are excluded from this fast recharge requirement. Largely because they obviously would meet the requirement anyway.

I could go find all the exact details, they're not at the top of my head right now. But in my opinion battery swap has nothing to do with what customers want and everything to do with Tesla's bottom line. I believe that Toyota is going to be selling Fuel-Cell Vehicles for roughly the same reason. They didn't have the technology to ship fast recharging EVs (battery swap is probably not realistic on a modified ICE platform) and Tesla wasn't able to scale up the BEV to meet Toyota's needs for ZEV credits. So Toyota developed a FCV that they could build themselves and get enough ZEV credits to avoid paying Tesla (or some other automaker for them). I don't believe for a minute that Toyota thinks FCV are better long term for consumers, they are just currently better for Toyota's bottom line. But the strategy only works if they actually sell FCVs to get the credits so of course they're going to say they're better than BEVs.

Completely forgot about the ZEV credits.. this makes sense.

 

[32no]

Speaking of ZEV credits, I was recently reading a FUD piece on Tesla which tries to prove Tesla isn't a real free market winner because of many subsidies. There was some blatantly wrong and misleading parts of it, but there was one statement that I didn't actually know whether it was true. It said that has Tesla not paid off its DOE loan, the U.S. Treasury stood to gain a significant portion of Tesla's stock by exercising warrants. To me it sounds like a stretch, and it also sounds like it wouldn't make too much of a difference, since Tesla offered stock to pay the loan anyway. Moreover, how does the author know that the U.S. treasury would indeed have made that choice?

 

[All Your Bases]

Battery swap could be a good technology to have on hand for taxi fleets, like the one @ Schiphol airport. The Model X could have a great future as Taxi's, combined with fast battery swap. City authorities will be very suportive of zero-emission taxi fleets.

 

[chickensevil]

Battery swap could be a good technology to have on hand for taxi fleets, like the one @ Schiphol airport. The Model X could have a great future as Taxi's, combined with fast battery swap. City authorities will be very suportive of zero-emission taxi fleets.

A bit on the pricy side for taxi's isn't it? Maybe when the Gen 3 version of an SUV comes out. Elon said that battery swap would likely only make sense for commercial type vehicles where you can't afford to have a car down for 30-40 minutes or more.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Last Friday during my Tesla-research I found a bunch of pictures on this web site showing the inside of the Tesla factory (production line among others) in Freemont.
The pictures did show quite some vehicles stored inside the Tesla factory.
Does anybody else have any information on the web page or the pictures?
The web page does not seem very credible to me.
Worst thing is: I tried to investigate further during last weekend, but since Saturday I can no longer access the web page.
If I try again, I get a redirect to "http://e.freewebhostingarea.com/403.html", browser tab headline saying "forbidden" and a security warning!

Up till now I do not take the information in the pictures as serious.

It would be great if some else had information on these pictures!

Update: I did find the web page in google cache right now!

 

[Lessmog]

ev-e: might it be a trap?

 

[dalalsid]

Battery swap adds value in several ways:

- Tesla car owners can easily migrate to any new battery technology, keeping their car's value from steep decay in case of superior battery technology release
- Some Tesla owners may wish to keep the car for many years (miles) and upgrade battery after certain number of miles;
- Some drivers may actually use the facility
- Zev credits, as per breser's post above

Here is one more way - Buy an S60 and temporarily swap to an 85kWh (or bigger when available) battery if and when you need long range travel.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

ev-e: might it be a trap?

Yes, in deed, this is possible.
I have no idea if this is a reliable source (better: I have some doubts )

 

[pGo]

I just don't think battery swapping is feasible for common people. Say I want to go from A to B to C to A. Now I swap my battery between A to B, and one more time from B to C and I come back to A. How do I get my original battery back? Shouldn't this model require battery to be separated from car price and always rented out? I don't get logistics nightmares.

 

[uselesslogin]

Update: I did find the web page in google cache right now!

I saw the pictures. It is quite possible they are cars ready to be loaded onto trains and sent to Europe. I highly doubt a "gargantuan" quality problem. There might be some other issue they are waiting on since I see reports of a European "black hole" on the delivery forums. Lots of people are in production for longer than they expected to be.

 

[Lump]

Last Friday during my Tesla-research I found a bunch of pictures on this web site showing the inside of the Tesla factory (production line among others) in Freemont.
The pictures did show quite some vehicles stored inside the Tesla factory.
Does anybody else have any information on the web page or the pictures?
The web page does not seem very credible to me.
Worst thing is: I tried to investigate further during last weekend, but since Saturday I can no longer access the web page.
If I try again, I get a redirect to "http://e.freewebhostingarea.com/403.html", browser tab headline saying "forbidden" and a security warning!

Up till now I do not take the information in the pictures as serious.

It would be great if some else had information on these pictures!

Update: I did find the web page in google cache right now!

I can't view the pictures, whats the trick?

 

[ev-enthusiast]

I can't view the pictures, whats the trick?

Unfortunately I can no longer view the pictures on the web page (current web page not accessible; web page in cache showing only text without pictures).
On Friday I discovered the web page and I was able to view the web page including the pictures.
Since Saturday I am no longer able to access and view the pictures
I wanted to ask if some one else has seen the pictures on Friday or maybe earlier.

 

[mejojo]

I just don't think battery swapping is feasible for common people. Say I want to go from A to B to C to A. Now I swap my battery between A to B, and one more time from B to C and I come back to A. How do I get my original battery back? Shouldn't this model require battery to be separated from car price and always rented out? I don't get logistics nightmares.

The Bullet Train isn't for "common people" either, but as we know, there are plenty of uncommon people who commute between LA and SF, for example...people whose company pays transportation expenses and whose time is "more important" than their business's money.

 

[The Blue Owl]

TSLA is shooting up for no apparent reason, while the rest of the market is "meh". Haven't seen this in a long time. Me likey.

Edit: Actually, some other autos are going up, too. I wonder why.

 

[GenIIIBuyer]

TSLA is shooting up for no apparent reason, while the rest of the market is "meh". Haven't seen this in a long time. Me likey.

Any reason for the relative strength? (no reason being the most bullish..)

 

[FluxCap]

Via my Thinkorswim feed:

Tesla Motors Inc. (TSLA) will roll out new models in China and look to improve its business there, even as new data added to signs that last year's Chinese performance fell below the electric car maker's threshold for success.

That's all I can find.

OPEC guys just said they think the bottom is in for oil prices though, so I suspect that is catalyzing. All the solars are up as well.

 

[replicant]

It might be be related to this: India Gets Obama’s Backing for $160 Billion Solar Push

India’s audacious plan to create a solar industry on the scale of China’s almost from scratch gained credibility with President Barack Obama’s pledge to lend U.S. financial support for the program.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Not today's most important info, but good news in Australia as Model S P85+ finished first in "Best Luxury Car Over $80,000" ahead of Mercedes S400L S-class, E300 Bluetec Hybrid and BMW 435i Gran Coupe, congrats

 

[eepic]

Via my Thinkorswim feed:



That's all I can find.

OPEC guys just said they think the bottom is in for oil prices though, so I suspect that is catalyzing. All the solars are up as well.

Here's the article for that, nothing new really, except "JL Warren Capital" talking about # registrations in China.

Tesla to Roll Out New Models in China - WSJ