Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[FluxCap]

Regarding storage and how much it has been priced in... Or not... To the current price.

We here tend to have a fuller scope of the ongoings of the company than I think most people and even analysts and other "professionals" have. While we have thrown around 200$/kWh as the suspected current cost to Tesla, keep in mind that most everyone else does not share that view. Specifically let's look at companies whose job it is to pay attentention to the battery field, Lux Research... Didn't they post some crazy high 380$ number not too long ago? And they, as best I could tell, didn't have stake in saying down with Tesla and look at this other technology that I am trying to misdirect you toward. They put a decent amount of work into how they concluded their pricing.

To that end, people have pushed around numbers on hypothetical storage products using a hypothetical pack cost for the Model S battery, all shooting in like the 10k+ range. Again we all thought this was a crazy number, but for those outside of our circle (and there are a LOT of people outside our circle here on TMC) that might have seemed reasonable and even logical.

So while I don't view the announcement as a surprise I think we here on TMC are not the majority of shareholders/interested parties.

I mean, honestly ask yourself when you were last truly surprised by anything Tesla formally announced? Let's work backward,

Stationary storage, known for at LEAST 15 months (JB speech given in Jan 14)... Nope no surprise
70D... I'll admit minor shock at this timing and it being out of the blue with no fanfare... But many long suspected they would have to raise the 60 in order to hit at least 200 miles on the X, this hasn't hit the full story yet as we don't see the X, yet... But mark my words, the X70D will magically have like 208 miles of range or some such...
Dual Motors On the S: hinted at publicly by the company like about a year prior at those EU town halls that the company did.
Autopilot: that's been the talk of the company for like a year or so before the announcement as well. There was even a tweet by Elon about hiring people specifically for that field.

I could go on, and you could likely apply this to core parts of the company's business as well, like factory upgrades, and other such things. We don't tend to get as much of a heads up on some of these things, but I think the only true surprise I have experienced was the Q4 pre-announce by Jerome two January's ago. If none of this was a shock to the average trader/shareholder, then why all the volatility in the price? Clearly the price is moving based on the uncertainty of the company at the time, but yet here we sit knowing well in advance of most of these news events.

the hard part is not trying to figure out what the company is doing... Oh no, that's easy. I have never traded a company that I had this much transparency into their business and what was happening and coming in the future.

nay, the hard part is determining how the market is going to react today, tomorrow, this week... And how long it will take for the market to realize what we have known all along... There is no spoon.

/micdrop !

 

[TSLAopt]

"That was for the entire world. And this year, maybe, we'll be a little bit above 50,000 cars."

It can be interpreted both ways. Also, was it true that the news of the low China sales was first mentioned in a Chinese interview?
If yes, it would make it a precedent.

Also keep in mind that Elon doesn't speak in clear concise sentences...the people who wrote the transcript for his answers chose where to put periods vs. commas. If you take the period out and make it a longer drawn out sentence then it is clear he is only talking about the S being a little bit above 50k cars.

 

[Larken]

Also keep in mind that Elon doesn't speak in clear concise sentences...the people who wrote the transcript for his answers chose where to put periods vs. commas. If you take the period out and make it a longer drawn out sentence then it is clear he is only talking about the S being a little bit above 50k cars.

Also, hasn't Elon metioned deliveries would be 50,000 Model S and 5,000 Model X? I went through the latest shareholder letter and couldn't find it there but for some reason those number are in the back of my mind. So subsequently, if he was talking about the Model S in the Nikkei interview, whch I also believe he was, then that would be great.

 

[sundaymorning]

Oil about to touch $61, where will it be during the summer months when traveling is at its height?

 

[vgrinshpun]

Based on research into the Oncor project for 5kW worth of (Texas) grid connected stationary storage, I posted some snippets of information that might come handy in advance of the tomorrow's ER call.

 

[100thMonkey]

so after looking over the Tesla Energy products, I've considered a few angles to try and assess the effect on TSLA. I think the potential for grid storage is where the biggest potential lies, but I doubt that will effect things much in the short run, it will take time to land those contracts and because the scale of production would be huge, even if only a few utilities signed up and I can't imagine they can spool up production fast, probably looking at supply constrained for some time to come. for the home owner, from a sober, purely economic stand point, the value proposition may take time to sink in and at this point the % of those with solar is low. so, my initial take was that this may not be earth shattering for TSLA in the short run either... that was until I started getting inquaries from friends and watching something that is hard to gauge unfold. I am seeing people signing up who don't own an EV, don't have solar but simply like the idea of back up power and are happy to have such an affordable excuse to get a piece of Tesla in their home. so, if we get a look at how orders are going tomorrow during the report, we might all be surprised. someone mentioned that if 40,000 folks signed up for the power wall it would be impressive... I have no crystal ball, but I would not be all that surprised if it were already something more like 400,000! it appears that Tesla, the brand, has incredible magnetism, possibly taking an idea that is not new but for the first time thoroughly explaining to a large market of eager supporters. if this is the case, we could see a huge upswing from this in stock value, it already feels like the price has firmed up quite a bit. from a gigafactory perspective, this whole thing is brilliant, making the scaling up of production that much more imminent. I'm no expert, but I've got that giddy feeling again, that "Elon Musk is a genius" voice sounding in my head. I can't think of another company that has so brilliantly orchestrated multiple industries simultaneously... I am very interested to see if the market is sophisticated enough to get the magnitude of these combined economic engines, it could be truly historic, like as in never happened before kind of stuff.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Northland Securities reissued their buy rating Tesla Motors in a research note released on Tuesday morning ahead of Q1 ER.
They currently have a $298.00 target price on the stock (sorry if already mentioned before).

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Analyst Recommendation - Jefferies joins the club!

I guess many of you have heard already that Jefferies has started covering TSLA. I think they are bullish:biggrin:

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analys...t;+China+Concerns+are+Overblown/10520644.html

 

[Newb]

I am seeing people signing up who don't own an EV, don't have solar but simply like the idea of back up power and are happy to have such an affordable excuse to get a piece of Tesla in their home.

this. +100

I think the Powerwall reserve button (which allows for reservations throughout the world, btw) is incidentially a first test of potential mass demand for a) an "affordable" Tesla product, and b) a cost-effective home battery. I've talked to someone from Austria who said that some home owners were contemplating to reserve the Powerwall because of exactly this desire to have a piece of Tesla technology installed in their homes. What came in support to the contemplating was that Austrian company Fronius is supplying parts to the Powerwall.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

BBG - Autos Take Center Stage Back From Batteries in Tesla Earnings

source Bloomberg: {NSN NNWDKT6KLVRK<Go>}
an extract.

By Dana Hull
(Bloomberg) -- Cars -- not batteries -- will take center
stage as Tesla Motors Inc. reports earnings later today.
Tesla investors will scour the results for clues on whether
the company’s on track to meet this year’s ambitious goal to
sell 55,000 vehicles and for progress on its Model X sport
utility vehicle, due to be released this summer.
Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg estimate that Palo Alto,
California-based Tesla will lose 49 cents a share excluding
certain items even as quarterly sales exceed $1 billion for the
first time. The company last month said it sold 10,030 Model S
luxury electric sedans in the quarter, so investors will be
looking for a second-quarter forecast and how it feeds into the
full-year outlook.
“Investors are braced for a loss,” Brian Johnson of
Barclays said in an interview. “What’s the second-quarter
delivery guidance, and do they say anything about the Model X
and the 55,000-unit guidance for the year?”
[...]
So for now, investors want to know if
sales are picking up in China and whether the Model X SUV is
still going into production this summer
[...]
“Can Tesla hit the 55,000-unit guidance for this year?
That’s the biggest linchpin for the stock,” Dan Galves, an
analyst with Credit Suisse, who has an outperform rating and
$290 price target, said in an interview. “It’s also extremely
important that there are no more delays in the X.”
[...]
The company quietly began its certified pre-owned program
to sell used Model S sedans on its website April 24. Every pre-
owned Model S comes with a 4-year, 50,000-mile limited warranty.
[...]
Also on investors’ minds are signs of progress in China.
While sales have been slow in the world’s largest auto market,
Dan Dolev, an analyst with Jefferies LLC, said a proprietary
survey shows enough demand to meet Tesla’s sales goals through
2020 just in North America and western Europe.
“Concerns about China sales are overblown,” Dolev said in
a note to clients Tuesday. Jefferies initiated coverage with a
buy rating and $350 price target.

 

[eepic]

Ok so here are the rules for tomorrow:

1. Nice constructive debate.
2. Reserve this for short term movements.
3. For those of you who travel and tend to tank the stock when you login-- don't do it (you know who you guys are)
4. ABSOLUTELY NO POETRY (ESPECIALLY HAIKU)
5. There are no rules with TSLA... ever.

Exciting times are ahead... we got the high short interest, X, GF, and real battery packs.

I just got back from a vacation in the nick of time and finally caught up on almost 100 pages here - whew lol. Seems a big event always happens during my time off.

Anyways, Kyodo News cites Musk on 7 new service centres in Japan this year Tesla to open seven new service centers in Japan by end of 2015 | The Japan Times

 

[Gerasimental]

I just got back from a vacation in the nick of time and finally caught up on almost 100 pages here - whew lol. Seems a big event always happens during my time off.

Anyways, Kyodo News cites Musk on 7 new service centres in Japan this year Tesla to open seven new service centers in Japan by end of 2015 | The Japan Times

I'm probably going to be in Iran when Model X launches. I'm thinking I should schedule another week of holidays after returning just to trawl though everything on here.

 

[Robert.Boston]

this. +100

I think the Powerwall reserve button (which allows for reservations throughout the world, btw) is incidentially a first test of potential mass demand for a) an "affordable" Tesla product, and b) a cost-effective home battery. I've talked to someone from Austria who said that some home owners were contemplating to reserve the Powerwall because of exactly this desire to have a piece of Tesla technology installed in their homes. What came in support to the contemplating was that Austrian company Fronius is supplying parts to the Powerwall.

"Show of Hands" is an iOS app that puts questions out to its users every day, and allows users to ask their own questions. The demographic on SoH is skewed to southern conservatives; questions about the environment, etc. fare poorly.

SoH asked:

Electric car maker Tesla has announced that they will begin selling large battery packs for the home. Combined with solar panels, the $3500 "Powerwall" system could eventually allow some homes to "cut the cord" from the power grid altogether.
{Cool!} {Meh}

Shockingly, 88% of the 4,318 respondents voted "Cool!" with almost no variation across demographics of age or income. While this poll surely isn't scientific, it does suggest that Tesla has tapped into a deep and wide potential market. This kind of broad response may also create demand for TSLA shares.

By the way, please note that TMC has now created a Tesla Energy subforum where the non-investor discussion should go.

 

[InTheShadows]

source Bloomberg: {NSN NNWDKT6KLVRK}
an extract.

I not sure I agree with "cars take center stage". I think there will be a good bit of questions about the cars, however the energy storage packs (batteries) leave so many unanswered questions I find it extremely hard for any analysts to not want at least some clarification on the energy storage.

The only way I see no energy storage discussion is if Elon opens the call stating that they will not be answering energy storage question. On second thought, even if that happens I find it very unlikely that Elon will be able to ignore any storage questions asked.

This will probably be the most exciting cc of any company this year.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Moderator's Note

I've moved a cluster of posts from a few days ago into http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/46684-Following-Tesla-s-CPO-Business.

 

[ibcs]

Successful SpaceX Pad Abort Test - precursor to a great day for Elon and Company.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Tesla hires first operational workers for gigafactory, total investment at $143.2M

Tesla hired 12 employees for the plant, which will ramp up to 6,500 full-time workers once the gigafactory is fully operational. The company did not provide specific details about the 12 positions, only saying that their total salary for the first quarter equaled $314,131. All 12 are considered as Tesla employees and are not construction workers.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

I not sure I agree with "cars take center stage". I think there will be a good bit of questions about the cars, however the energy storage packs (batteries) leave so many unanswered questions I find it extremely hard for any analysts to not want at least some clarification on the energy storage.

The only way I see no energy storage discussion is if Elon opens the call stating that they will not be answering energy storage question. On second thought, even if that happens I find it very unlikely that Elon will be able to ignore any storage questions asked.

This will probably be the most exciting cc of any company this year.

and here's an article which should shed some more light regarding Tesla Energy et al. It is an interview with SolarCity's CFO.

source Bloomberg: {NSN NNVUFS6KLVR5<Go>}

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Tesla Battery May Further ’Explode’ Residential Solar: Q&A
2015-05-05 15:16:40.194 GMT



By Siobhan Wagner
May 5 (Bloomberg New Energy Finance) -- Tesla Motors Inc.’s
announcement of a home battery may put the fast-growing
residential solar market on track to “explode further,”
according to SolarCity Corp.
Brad Buss, chief financial officer at SolarCity, said
rooftop photovoltaic panels can already generate power at a cost
that’s better than electricity from the grid, the addition of
battery storage will make homes even less dependent on
utilities.
“You’ll eventually be able to generate your own
electricity, put in your own battery and use it as you want
without a utility telling you what you can or can’t do,” he
said.
Buss was speaking in a one-on-one interview with Clean
Energy & Carbon Brief at Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s Summit
in New York on April 13-15.
Tesla’s Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk had tweeted on
March 30 that a “major new product line -- not a car -- will be
unveiled.” Sure enough, Musk introduced Tesla Energy, a suite of
batteries for homes, businesses and utilities, on April 30. On
the same day, SolarCity announced it will offer Tesla’s
"Powerwall" home battery to its residential solar customers.
Musk is also the chairman of SolarCity, the biggest U.S.
solar power supplier to homes. The San Mateo-California-based
company said in its financial year 2014 report that its
residential solar panel deployments grew by 106 percent last
year.
Buss said SolarCity expects more growth even as tax
subsidies for solar fade in the U.S. because the company has
been focusing on lowering unit costs.

Q: The U.S. currently offers tax subsidies for the solar
industry. The federal tax credit is currently 30 percent of the
qualified costs of a solar system. How exactly has SolarCity
been benefiting from this credit?

A: We have a very deep breadth of tax equity partners between
corporations as well as big banks. We’re starting to go down a
syndication path. Our access to tax equity is very big and it’s
continuing to grow. We’re also at a size where we’re able to
give the tax equity partner very good visibility, and we’re
growing faster than their tax needs are growing, so we can also
keep their tax needs filled.

Q: After 2016, the investment tax credit will drop to 10
percent. How will this affect the residential solar market?

A: [F]or some of the smaller developers, that tax equity [is]
very crucial to their business model. The challenge that some of
them are going to have [is] they don’t have the scale and the
size to compete post the drop down in the ITC.

Q: What is going to happen to your business post the ITC?

A:I think it will grow even potentially faster than what we’re
doing right now. [Brothers] Pete and Lyndon [Rive], the
founders, set this company up to drive the cost down, assuming
there is a world with no tax subsidies, which has been
fantastic. We have a very cost-driven culture, we’re driving it
to new lows, literally every quarter. We’ll be able to compete
very well and give a pretty decent return to our shareholders.
Competitively, I think a lot of other people aren’t going be
able to do that and that competition is going to go away quite
rapidly.

Q: What kind of impact will home batteries have on the
residential solar market?

A: I think you will see it explode further. The generation is
one thing. The ability to do clean generation at a lower cost
than brown power is a big deal. Once you add batteries into it,
you’re able to store that energy. You could use it for an
emergency: a tornado, a wind storm, whatever may come, but also
[you could be prepared for] the challenges of net metering that
go on in the world. You’ll eventually be able to generate your
own electricity, put it in your own battery and use it as you
want without a utility telling you what you can or can’t do. If
you look at microgrids, that [battery application] will pop up
for there. That will be a huge boon for new communities when
infrastructure needs to get replaced. Think of the impact on
developing countries that don’t have electricity. Billions of
people with no electricity will now be able to have it in a very
cost effective way.

Q: SolarCity provides financing and you’ve invested in the
upstream and downstream side of the solar business. Does
SolarCity want to be a one-stop shop for solar or are you going
to leave a little piece for someone else?

A: I think the main focus is on delivering clean energy cheaper
than the grid, and the acquisitions we’ve done have really been
to help lower our cost so that we can go to more and more people
on a cost-effective basis. You’ve seen the partnership with Nest
[a deal that gives some SolarCity customers access to energy
saving services] and then you’ll see batteries. I think they all
fit into the same theme of wanting to bring more people into
renewable energy on a very cost-effective basis. We’ll work with
utilities until I think forever. I don’t see that paradigm
changing. Could we do more in home management of energy where
we’re helping with creation and generation? I think we could
definitely go down the road. But I think between our current
mission of spreading the word for renewable and solar energy,
and then with batteries, we’re going to be pretty busy for a
long time.

Q: You’ve had success in the U.S. Do you have plans for growing
outside your home country?

A: We definitely will [but] we have a huge market right in our
backyard. We’re not in all the states. The penetration is maybe
1 percent of distributed generation, so we could stay just in
the U.S. forever. I think you will see us probably look at other
international markets within a year. There are many markets that
are as good or better than California internationally. It’s just
a matter of us having the time and bandwidth to go out and
attack those, and we will.

 

[uselesslogin]

Successful SpaceX Pad Abort Test - precursor to a great day for Elon and Company.

FWIW it sounds like something was "slightly less than nominal" but obviously the crew would have survived so all in all a good test.

 

[Yonki]

I am seeing people signing up who don't own an EV, don't have solar but simply like the idea of back up power and are happy to have such an affordable excuse to get a piece of Tesla in their home.

That basically describes me - I signed up immediately, though it was less backup and more to be able to buy energy cheap at night for use during the day, but on Monday I was contacted by SolarCity who said that they were responding to my Powerwall signup. I told them I can't go solar because my roof is 99% covered by trees, and they responded that "you can only get the battery if you get solar."

Has anyone else had this experience? It's a great way to discourage an enthusiastic group of people. I can see why SolarCity might only be interested if there's a solar component, but I signed up (I thought) with Tesla, not SC...