Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[neroden]

Surely you must be trolling.

These dogs are both just dogs right?

View attachment 183098

Look, the BYD e6 and the Tesla Model S/X will never compare when it comes to safety, features, technology. So why compare them on price or "technological lead" time??? Nonsensical to say the least...

That's exactly what they said about cheap Japanese imported cars, like Toyota, vs. American cars, like GM, in the 1960s. What happened in the 1970s? You know.

 

[techmaven]

One of the reasons why I hold TSLA stock is that I (used to) think Tesla is 2-3 years ahead of everyone else in the electric cars crowd.

Now, I saw a Chinese rival (e6) on the street. 80kWh battery and below €50k purchase price. They are sailing in U.S. too, now.

I hate that this is in the short term thread, but alas... we need to get beyond electric = electric, battery = battery. They are not the same.

BYD makes LiFePO4 batteries. That's a non-starter for a competitive EV outside of 3rd world nations.

Take a look: Transport Evolved Episode 164. The Fast And The Furious

It is particularly interesting at 45 minutes in, and especially at 51 minutes.

BYD will do well in China, but this level of technology will not make it elsewhere for light passenger vehicles except maybe in fleets. The 82 kWh version of the e6 weighs in at 2,420 kg or 5,335 lbs. The 82 kWh battery pack is claimed to be 700 kg. The Model S 85 kWh battery pack is around 545 kg.

In no way does this level of tech compete against Tesla. At some point, BYD will have to transition to NMC like everyone else or go the high tech route that Tesla is using.

 

[pGo]

Short term trading idea:

if the SCTY deal goes through, SCTY will be linked to TSLA

One way to profit from this would be to sell SCTY JAN19'18 25 PUT for 11$

The option premium seems very high to me.

Options market sees SCTY a risk even before the Tesla offer. With the offer, this risk is a bit lower, however, there is no guarantee the deal goes through - hence a lag with the offered range.

It also doesn't appear that SCTY stockholders would ask for more based on current share movement. If Tesla sees resistance from shareholders, they may offer a lowered price range - but I guess lowered offer is highly unlikely.

 

[Foghat]

Options market sees SCTY a risk even before the Tesla offer. With the offer, this risk is a bit lower, however, there is no guarantee the deal goes through - hence a lag with the offered range.

It also doesn't appear that SCTY stockholders would ask for more based on current share movement. If Tesla sees resistance from shareholders, they may offer a lowered price range - but I guess lowered offer is highly unlikely.

Tesla's offer to buy Solarcity was unsolicited. Solarcity doesn't have to accept anything higher or lower from them.

The deal terms will only go higher not lower if current deal offer not accepted.

 

[gigglehertz]

Love it. Totally love it.

I have been trying to expose this ***** since he reared his ugly head again and polluted pretty much all the threads with evangelism. But in the rush of those many evangelistic posts, my feeble voice was simply overcrowded. This dude seriously cost a lot of people hard-earned money in SCTY. He was an ultra-bull in 60's and 70's and was preaching hard into 50s. Many people fell for the rhetoric including myself.

Think of Julian Cox for SCTY but with much simpler english and much lower IQ.

I started to wonder recently - we call some bears as trolls. But can there be bulls that are trolls? Is bull-troll a legit term?

You're the Mark Spiegel of SCTY

 

[vgrinshpun]

That's exactly what they said about cheap Japanese imported cars, like Toyota, vs. American cars, like GM, in the 1960s. What happened in the 1970s? You know.

Have you ever looked at the specs??

BYD E6 can't be compared to Model S by any stretch of imagination. Smaller, heavier, slower (and that is understatement - 84mph top speed), less range, less luggage space (almost two times less), higher energy consumption per mile. We are talking mediocre engineering at best vs. technological tour de force. You can't possibly be serious.

 

[Lessmog]

Certainly you are joking?

Can we use the cosmic background radiation as a source of power? - Quora

(Also in all seriousness: if you don't understand high school physics @Foghat it makes me highly sceptical when you comment on SCTY's financing and other complex business issues related to SCTY and solar in general)

Luckily the sun doesn't output that much in the wave length of gamma radiation and those gamma rays that do travel from the sun toward Earth are diverted away from the surface by our magnetic field. This is good because these high intensity electromagnetic waves are ionizing, which means they cause cellular damage and DNA damage that, among other deleterious effect, cause cancer in humans. Wavelengths below visible light ("infrared") do hit the Earth in abundance, and are percieved as heat from the sun. These wavelengths do contain all-in-all quite a lot of energy but per square meter or square foot less than the visible light spectrum. So having photovoltaic panels that were able to convert a lot of the longer wave lengths to electricity wouldn't create a whole lot of electricity, per surface area. Remember that the shorter the wave length the more energy.

One more thing: Day and night on earth is caused by the phenomenon which is that Earth rotates around its own axis. Due to this, at any given time, one side of the sphere will face the Sun while the other side faces away from the Sun. The side facing away experiences "night" and the side facing the sun experiences "day". During "the night" not a lot of solar radiation, of any wavelength, is available to harvest.

You know I love you, Johan, but either
a) you have made a big-time, Nobel-class discovery (that gamma photons deflect from a magnetic field), or
b) you need to delve a little deeper into high school physics yourself.
(Or maybe c) I need to look things up on google, except I lack the time and the shining Sun distracts me)

(Edited to add some specificity, and necessary shades)

 

[dmckinstry]

Have you ever looked at the specs??

BYD E6 can't be compared to Model S by any stretch of imagination. Smaller, heavier, slower (and that is understatement - 84mph top speed), less range, less luggage space (almost two times less), higher energy consumption per mile. We are talking mediocre engineering at best vs. technological tour de force. You can't possibly be serious.

And absolutely gutless on uphills. I wonder what kind of BMS they use? They were down to ~24% range when they got to the hill. Would it do better fully charged? Do the batteries heat up until they lose performance?

 

[Johan]

You know I love you, Johan, but either
a) you have made a big-time, Nobel-class discovery (that gamma photons deflect from a magnetic field), or
b) you need to delve a little deeper into high school physics yourself.
(Or maybe c) I need to look things up on google, except I lack the time and the shining Sun distracts me)

(Edited to add some specificity, and necessary shades)

Sorry. I meant alpha and beta radiation (charged particles), not gamma radiation. In fact there's not too much gamma radiation exiting the sun (but loads in the core). Thanks for the correction. I stand, as they say, corrected
(P.S. I didn't attend high school)

 

[dmckinstry]

Sorry. I meant alpha and beta radiation (charged particles), not gamma radiation. In fact there's not too much gamma radiation exiting the sun (but loads in the core). Thanks for the correction. I stand, as they say, corrected
(P.S. I didn't attend high school)

So only an 8th grade education. Then obviously an 8th grade education in Norway beats a high school education in the U.S.
Sorry, I can't find the smiley icons. I don't know what the education options are above grade school in Norway are, but I suspect your education is beyond H.S.

 

[madodel]

One of the reasons why I hold TSLA stock is that I (used to) think Tesla is 2-3 years ahead of everyone else in the electric cars crowd.

Now, I saw a Chinese rival (e6) on the street. 80kWh battery and below €50k purchase price. They are sailing in U.S. too, now.

Of course, nobody wants to drive their kids in a Chinese van (not until they are better with safety tests), but hey, if the Chinese can do it, why is not Nissan / BMW / Merc etc pulling an appealing car with a decent battery for a good price? Do we really have that sort of 2 years lead?

I still have my daughter's 20 year old Fisher Price Hot Wheels Barbie Jeep though not my son's pickup truck. Have to look for the charging cable as I don't think my HPWC will work with the lead-acid batteries.

The above is from 15 years ago so I suppose that means Fisher Price is well ahead of everyone in EV technology. Though they were probably made in China also.

 

[Jayjs20]

The SP sure ain't moving much today

 

[Johan]

The SP sure ain't moving much today

Don't worry. We've got some high quality discussions brewing here.

 

[Foghat]

Sorry. I meant alpha and beta radiation (charged particles), not gamma radiation. In fact there's not too much gamma radiation exiting the sun (but loads in the core). Thanks for the correction. I stand, as they say, corrected
(P.S. I didn't attend high school)

I see much Solarcity, tesla, and spacex satellite synergies around the commercial implications (as well as competitive advantages) of GaN application and research by Elon now and into the long term future (such as the possibilities described earlier).

Where is GaN Going? EPC Releases Six Videos Featuring GaN Technology in Game-Changing Industrial and Consumer Applications | Business Wire

Move over, silicon. Gallium nitride chips are taking over

 

[esk8mw]

I have some pretty basic Model X VIN questions that I think I know the answers to already but want to confirm, if anyone can help me out:

- Do Founders AND Sigs have separate VIN counts such that Production VINs started at 0001, or are the Sigs and Production mixed into the same VIN pool (currently assigning at 12800 or so)?
- About how many Sigs have had VINs assigned? I think I remember the US having 1200 or so, but not sure about the rest of the world.
- Floor models and loaners have VINs assigned from the factory, right? If yes, do these non-customer cars get factored into the "cars produced this quarter" figure reported with earnings?

Yes, I know VIN counting isn't an acceptable method for gauging deliveries but I think it's instructive to at least monitor the VIN numbering process throughout the quarter.

 

[jhm]

I think we need to summon @jhm from the SCTY thread to drop his opinion and perspective on us!

Sorry, I've been on vacation, sipping wine in Sonoma County and paddling along the Russian River.

I like this combination of SolarCity and Tesla. It positions Tesla to become the new energy super major.

I've posted comments in the SolarCity thread.

 

[Foghat]

So only an 8th grade education. Then obviously an 8th grade education in Norway beats a high school education in the U.S.
Sorry, I can't find the smiley icons. I don't know what the education options are above grade school in Norway are, but I suspect your education is beyond H.S.

Don't disparage higher learning in the US just yet... Ive only been through TK thus far...

 

[ggies07]

Marketplace is not for ego fights. I humbly/repeatedly admitted that I lost money in SCTY big time (happy to show the record if you care). I learnt my lessons as part of it as well. You lost a bundle too. Infact you borrowed money from 401k to buy more and further more committed the last dollar from your girlfriend. Because? you fell for bull-trolls like Foghat. Despite all these loses you fail to recognize why you are losing or show any care to learn anything from it. What's the point of attacking me? what do you earn or learn? Did I cause you loses or is it people like Fogat? Think through it.

You are just but one data point, don't make that the overall consensus. Maybe if you had been reading up on the energy industry, you would have gotten in at the IPO like I did. I haven't lost any money so far with SCTY. Please take a step back from banging on the company and its investors.

 

[maoing]

You're the Mark Spiegel of SCTY

Actually that's not bad Mark claimed his TSLA position hit ATH just last week

 

[TMSE]

We had a very good discussion in this thread on delivery estimates for Q2 and 2016 guidance, then SCTY announcement came in and we got sidetracked talking science fiction.

Anymore estimates on Q2 delivery and Q3/2016 guidance?