Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
I have to admit, it's Paulo Santos I can't wait to see humiliated the most as Tesla becomes more and more successful. He has been so incredibly nasty and condescending! I really look forward to his increasingly frantic short articles, then his eventual white flag of bankruptcy.

And while I'm sure some shorts are fine reasonable people just placing a directional bet like any other stock. A good chuck of tesla shorts are part of the idiot army of 'global warming is a hoax' types who also have a hatred of renewable energy and that is a big part of their hatred of tesla and why they are short. If you think global warming is a scam and renewable energy is a scam and so on, then of course tesla just has to fail eventually.
 
  • Like
Reactions: TrendTrader007
I

I have to disagree. TSLA is likely to outperform handily both short as well as long term but the trillions of $ market cap is fantasy at its best. Normally, I would empathize with someone who is 100% plus long TSLA since I'm 120% long TSLA myself but I'm having second thoughts about the wisdom of these wild speculations that I'm hearing
It's easy to throw out big #s but the way to make big money in the stock market is to be optimistic in a bull market, pessimistic in a bear and at all times not losing touch with reality
The reason why I'm superlong TSLA is not because I'm some wild eyed bull with endless yarns of unrealistic fantasy but because this is a bull market that we are in and I admire Elon Musk and i believe that TSLA is a stock whose time has come. The very fact that this stock has gone nowhere fast over the last 3 years or so is bullish because as Papafox said that sooner or later there will be a resolution of this range either with a big move upward or downward and it does not take a genius to figure out the direction of the impending move
Then I presume the 20 percent out of the 120 percent is meant to be a move for short term gains in the time frame of one to two months when it breaks out in a range towards 300 ( as derived from the chart analysis ) while the hundred percent is meant for long to super long in the region of years.
 
  • Like
Reactions: TrendTrader007
Instead of TM valued at $10T, $1T or even matching Apple's Value, how about we just meet guidance for the next 18 months. GF producing significant amounts of cells, TE producing significant income and model 3 coming out *on time* and *in quantity*. ;):cool:

Aw-shucks, popped my euphoric bubble! But yes, you are right! One step at a time...

And IIRC, US economy is valued at around 15T. So 10T is a little optimistic, but I like the sentiment!
 
Instead of TM valued at $10T, $1T or even matching Apple's Value, how about we just meet guidance for the next 18 months. GF producing significant amounts of cells, TE producing significant income and model 3 coming out *on time* and *in quantity*. ;):cool:

And without the early quality problems of the MX, which I think will be achieved.
 
  • Like
Reactions: AlMc and GoTslaGo
Not sure, but may be you missed the portion of my post that talked about blending of Model S into the (new) Body Line #2 which currently produces body in white for MX only. The reason for this blending *is* to make room and equipment used by Body Line #1 available for Model 3 production.
Right now, for custom MS orders in the USA, the expected delivery date is late October, whereas for MX, it is late November. This could suggest that Body Line #2 is being brought down for blending of MS into this line.
 
Then I presume the 20 percent out of the 120 percent is meant to be a move for short term gains in the time frame of one to two months when it breaks out in a range towards 300 ( as derived from the chart analysis ) while the hundred percent is meant for long to super long in the region of years.
here is my strategy regarding Tesla:
i have 120% TSLA position in common stock plus TSLA J 18 calls
the calls i have held for 6 months or so
at some point between now and January 2018 i will sell my calls either at a loss or more likely ( at least i think so) at a profit with long term capital gains realized
as to the 120% common stock position, i have not decided yet, and unless something drastic happens ( like accounting irregularities or Elon Musk having a nervous breakdown and deciding that ICE vehicles are after all better than EVs) i suspect i will hold the entire position for at least next 4 to 8 quarters or maybe for next 10 years. i dunno
all i know is that unless I'm totally missing something, TSLA is slated to be the next great stock of the next decade similar to what AAPL was for the last decade or AMZN currently is and the only way to make really big money ( i am not talking a few millions here) is to hold the stock for next several years. sure you can trade calls or puts here or there but as the old Mr Partridge in Reminiscences of a stock operator said:
why would i sell my stock.if i sell my stock i will lose my position. it's a bull market
dude! making a couple of million dollars is not going to drastically change my lifestyle. been there, done that,
however getting a several fold return on my entire investment in TSLA over the next decade like as in AAPL, FB and AMZN, now we are talking
 
I

I have to disagree. TSLA is likely to outperform handily both short as well as long term but the trillions of $ market cap is fantasy at its best. Normally, I would empathize with someone who is 100% plus long TSLA since I'm 120% long TSLA myself but I'm having second thoughts about the wisdom of these wild speculations that I'm hearing
It's easy to throw out big #s but the way to make big money in the stock market is to be optimistic in a bull market, pessimistic in a bear and at all times not losing touch with reality
The reason why I'm superlong TSLA is not because I'm some wild eyed bull with endless yarns of unrealistic fantasy but because this is a bull market that we are in and I admire Elon Musk and i believe that TSLA is a stock whose time has come. The very fact that this stock has gone nowhere fast over the last 3 years or so is bullish because as Papafox said that sooner or later there will be a resolution of this range either with a big move upward or downward and it does not take a genius to figure out the direction of the impending move

Well, I agree with you, so I'm not sure there is much disagreement.
Someone asked me why 10T, and since it is an interesting idea, I listed why it may happen.
10T is NOT my investment thesis. Neither is 700B.

Tesla's disruption of car industry where competition is slow, lazy, weighted down with obsolete business model and high liabilities, that's is my thesis. Along the line of Inventor's dilemma, I don't see incumbents being able to navigate transformation quickly enough to squash Tesla. In my eyes, Tesla has so much lead on electric car, which will soon be more efficient way to build cars, that it's their game to lose. I know this is provocative statement, and I'm not going to come and clarify and defend it - one needs to understand Inventor's dilemma to understand the whole process I'm thinking about, and where I'm coming from with statement like that.

I don't put numbers on potential Tesla success, but I'm sure it will be high enough for nice multiple. Something along rides I already had: FB $24 to $75, NFLX $47 to $90 and $AMZN $290 to $530. I exited all of these for Tesla starting some 18 months ago, as I thought Tesla had more long term potential.
 
Last edited:
Aw-shucks, popped my euphoric bubble! But yes, you are right! One step at a time...

And IIRC, US economy is valued at around 15T. So 10T is a little optimistic, but I like the sentiment!

People often overestimate growth in the short term and underestimate growth in the long term. Hence the crash of 2001 when everyone was betting on Internet, and today's world where largest companies are Internet related.

Today's largest company is ~700B, right?

If largest company grows market cap at 8% (and yeah, leaders will not be the same they are today, see my theory "winner takes all") in 30 years that is:

1.08**30 = 10.06x=1006% !!!
10.06x700B ~ 7T whoever that largest company is.

This is just a primer why it's not impossible, I am not saying it will happen, with any reasonable probability.
 
$47
Well, I agree with you, so I'm not sure there is much disagreement.
Someone asked me why 10T, and since it is an interesting idea, I listed why it may happen.
10T is NOT my investment thesis. Neither is 700B.

Tesla's disruption of car industry where competition is slow, lazy, weighted down with obsolete business model and high liabilities, that's is my thesis. Along the line of Inventor's dilemma, I don't see incumbents being able to navigate transformation quickly enough to squash Tesla. In my eyes, Tesla has so much lead on electric car, which will soon be more efficient way to build cars, that it's their game to lose. I know this is provocative statement, and I'm not going to come and clarify and defend it - one needs to understand Inventor's dilemma to understand the whole process I'm thinking about, and where I'm coming from with statement like that.

I don't put numbers on potential Tesla success, but I'm sure it will be high enough for nice multiple. Something along rides I already had: FB $24 to $75, NFLX $47 to $90 and $AMZN $290 to $530. I exited all of these for Tesla starting some 18 months ago, as I thought Tesla had more long term potential.
very well stated. you my friend are obviously an astute investor. i think that if you stay the course and not throw in the towel, figuratively speaking, just before the stock takes off then you shall be amply rewarded for your long term confidence in this stock.
i do admire your willingness to put your money exactly where your mouth is. since both of us are over 100% long TSLA, i would want you to reap the extremely well deserved rewards for your patience. i can totally understand your frustration over holding TSLA over 18 months now and seeing precious little appreciation in your position. however, to create true wealth through the stock market you have to look at the really big picture and what i see currently is a company on the cusp of greatness and a stock that just wants to run much much higher. if you know candlesticks you will appreciate the excellent long term pattern developing on quarterly chart of TSLA which in my opinion presages a major breakout just around the corner
hang in dude! you are much better than most who talk the talk but barely ever walk the walk
( too many freakin cliche's but I'm a speculator not a writer)
 
That's not the reason you get criticized. DaveT critiqued Tesla at great length for a few days and didn't get criticized. He did receive quite a bit of generally respectfuo disagreement and discussion. The difference is that he offered intelligent reasons for his criticism.

I remember DaveT spent about 36 hours explaining, clarifying and adding to his initial posts, many people telling him he wasn't right in a very respectable tone. Similarly, there was new guy (useless login?) that had very good reasoning and got into what seemed like an ambush, again spendning probably 24-36 hours in defending his position.

So I'm sorry if I see this incorrectly, as attempt to drawn down dissenting opinions. For some reason, I remember you as one of the more vocal ones. Still, I'm sure that's just reflection of your love and passion for everything Tesla.
 
  • Like
Reactions: TrendTrader007
I remember DaveT spent about 36 hours explaining, clarifying and adding to his initial posts, many people telling him he wasn't right in a very respectable tone. Similarly, there was new guy (useless login?) that had very good reasoning and got into what seemed like an ambush, again spendning probably 24-36 hours in defending his position.

So I'm sorry if I see this incorrectly, as attempt to drawn down dissenting opinions. For some reason, I remember you as one of the more vocal ones. Still, I'm sure that's just reflection of your love and passion for everything Tesla.

OK guys, stop it.
 
What is a vivid recollection? Is it something you picture? If it's vivid you should be able to find a link to substantiate your recollection. They have closed for end of year Holliday. I have no vivid or other recollection of a quarterly shutdown

Here's a link to your first question.

the definition of vivid

adjective
1.
strikingly bright or intense, as color, light,etc.:
a vivid green.

2.
full of life; lively; animated:
a vivid personality.

3.
presenting the appearance, freshness, spirit,etc., of life; realistic:
a vivid account.

4.
strong, distinct, or clearly perceptible:
a vivid recollection.
 
I remember DaveT spent about 36 hours explaining, clarifying and adding to his initial posts, many people telling him he wasn't right in a very respectable tone. Similarly, there was new guy (useless login?) that had very good reasoning and got into what seemed like an ambush, again spendning probably 24-36 hours in defending his position.

So I'm sorry if I see this incorrectly, as attempt to drawn down dissenting opinions. For some reason, I remember you as one of the more vocal ones. Still, I'm sure that's just reflection of your love and passion for everything Tesla.
okay! here is the deal. i do not care if every body in the world thinks that i am an idiot of the highest order as long as i make tons of money in my investments. i really do not see the merit in justifying my personal opinions. either i am right or i am wrong. and basically the return on my investments determines the ultimate outcome.
i see tons of super smart Tesla fans on this forum and i can not even dream of knowing a fraction of what you guys know
all i wanna do at the end of the day is make money, lots and lots of money. everything else, especially opinions is secondary.
i'd rather be a super rich idiot than an impoverished intellectual,
as Sheldon Adelson said, if you're so smart how come you're not so rich
the point I'm trying to make here is that at the end of the day it is the results and not opinions ( even extremely well researched and supremely contemplated) count
RIP

and one last thing before i get the hell out of this thread:
i love learning so much about Tesla from all you super knowledgeable guys on this forum!
 
here is my strategy regarding Tesla:
i have 120% TSLA position in common stock plus TSLA J 18 calls
the calls i have held for 6 months or so
at some point between now and January 2018 i will sell my calls either at a loss or more likely ( at least i think so) at a profit with long term capital gains realized
as to the 120% common stock position, i have not decided yet, and unless something drastic happens ( like accounting irregularities or Elon Musk having a nervous breakdown and deciding that ICE vehicles are after all better than EVs) i suspect i will hold the entire position for at least next 4 to 8 quarters or maybe for next 10 years. i dunno
all i know is that unless I'm totally missing something, TSLA is slated to be the next great stock of the next decade similar to what AAPL was for the last decade or AMZN currently is and the only way to make really big money ( i am not talking a few millions here) is to hold the stock for next several years. sure you can trade calls or puts here or there but as the old Mr Partridge in Reminiscences of a stock operator said:
why would i sell my stock.if i sell my stock i will lose my position. it's a bull market
dude! making a couple of million dollars is not going to drastically change my lifestyle. been there, done that,
however getting a several fold return on my entire investment in TSLA over the next decade like as in AAPL, FB and AMZN, now we are talking

Indeed a steadfast man with bold vision. Hope your judgement will materialize as I'm also long. But as for margin trades would think is more practical for short term long due to interest rate issues.
 
  • Like
Reactions: TrendTrader007
And IIRC, US economy is valued at around 15T. So 10T is a little optimistic, but I like the sentiment!

ONE Year of US economic output is valued at ~15T.

The market cap of a company is today's value for all future profits and assets from today till bankruptcy, an Earth Killing Event, or (if Elon does make the human race multi-planetary) till hell freezes over.
 
The assumption is that sudden availability of millions of shares for shorting will result in precipitous drop in SP. I would be on a watch-out for this on Monday, especially if interest for borrowing TSLA shares plummets in pre-market trading.

There was still 0 shares available to short at Fidelity on Friday after hours, with estimated interest rate steady at 25%.

I would be watching these tomorrow pre-market with great interest.

I have bought some weekly protection puts / lottery tickets on Friday. Speaking about low probability / high reward scenarios, my current favorite is to cash these puts out on the dip next week with a healthy gain as short sellers are lured back with availability of shares for shorting and greatly reduced interest, and then using proceeds to buy weekly lottery ticket (calls) for the pop the following week on the Q3 deliveries (and possibly profitability pre-announcement).

I know, I know - stringing two winning weekly lottery tickets in a row is very unlikely, but not outrageously so, given the talk of Tesla, the $10T company. :)
Oh, and I am in on this play not 120%, but $120 (this is the true number, less the transaction fees!):)
 
Status
Not open for further replies.