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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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I'm guessing the NEXT data point will indicate whether or not short interest decreased

After the relative stability of the share price following the miss on the last quarter deliveries number, people on this board were pointing to that Dusaniwsky dude tweets about recalls for Tesla-SolarCity deal and how that was propping up the SP. That was back in early July, looking at this recent short interest statement from NASDAQ, I am not so sure how significant recalls have really been.
 
I read an article about that somewhere I think Saudi Arabia they basically had a sandy desert near a salt water source and they created a greenhouse with solar panels and would pipe water in and desalinate it all based on solar power. I imagine that once solar panels/storage get cheap enough they might be able skip the greenhouse and just outright turn beach into cropland.
Yes, and SA knows this way more than we do, and they will be doing it, with their huge war chest. I've been thinking SA is Tesla's biggest competitor and potential ally in the future. The difference is this time the USA company doesn't have to go rape the sand country's land to do it, and the political fallout will be hopefully a lot more peaceful, and much more environmentally good. I think I'm wrong, and I think the following is the more likely outcome:

The alternative is SA invests domestically in SA, and Tesla invests domestically as a supplier to domestic interests in various places around the world, managed and owned by the domestics. Tesla would just have some of the parts supplier pie. That means all the foot-dragging that would go on with water, energy, land management and terraforming integration would continue, and Tesla would have a back seat to whatever crumbs of big projects will eat up its pies (marketable goods). That will be profitable, and relatively safe. But a riskier bet would be to get into the business of land management and all of the pitfalls that entails, and some of the upsides. Imagine building whole countries, states, counties and cities, with the relative profit potential of designing really good societies. Requires really smart experienced well rounded people. Not quite Tesla's gig. I think SpaceX will be content to do that on Mars, but Tesla will just be a nuts and bolts concern.
 
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Another hypothesis to throw out there. Suppose Elon talked to the major institutions and discussed a stock issuance coming up. Suppose the institutions want the stock price to be as high as possible during the stock issuance, so that there is as little dilution as possible. Maybe the shares don't get lent out until after the stock issuance...

....would only make sense if the stock issuance was coming *really really soon*.
Yes, but we don't know whether or when it will happen.
 
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After the relative stability of the share price following the miss on the last quarter deliveries number, people on this board were pointing to that Dusaniwsky dude tweets about recalls for Tesla-SolarCity deal and how that was propping up the SP. That was back in early July, looking at this recent short interest statement from NASDAQ, I am not so sure how significant recalls have really been.

WOW! (Take #2). Price T. Rowe upped their stake in TSLA by 42.6%, or 3,139,231 shares! So just five largest institutional shareowners collectively increased their TSLA position in Q2 by 9.5M shares!

I believe that the major institutions purchased shares in order to vote.
 
Not really what I can state with a high degree of certainty that within a year or so we should be over $300 a share or at least 50% higher from here
Eventually, sky is the limit
I mean it
You seem to discount the possibility of a significant macroecnomic downturn which concerns me, especially given how fraught our current political climate is.
feel free not to invest aggressively and protect against a possible economic downturn
I'll take my chances
 
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I have a name for today's trading of TSLA: a work of fiction. Notice how there was a line drawn at 209 and shorts made a point of keeping TSLA below 209 after the frightening excursion to 210 earlier in the day. My guess is that shorts believe more shares to short are forthcoming and the availability of these shares will cause a SP decline. Just as longs don't like to catch falling knives and buy in while the SP is declining and relatively high, shorts are reluctant to sell in when the SP is relatively low and the SP is rising. Unfortunately for the shorts, TSLA was quite buoyant and would have risen above 209 if they hadn't intervened today, and that was in a very negative macro environment.

For shorts to succeed in depressing the SP and getting other shorts to join in the selling frenzy, substantial numbers of shares to short are needed, because it is the immediate availability of substantial numbers of shares at reasonable rates that not only enables the decline through shorting but it also provides the catalyst to get the ball started rolling downhill. If Tesla busts upward through 210 and accelerates its rate of climb this week, it's game over for the shorts this week. I wouldn't be surprised to see a selling flurry right at open tomorrow for the purpose of getting the ball rolling downhill. If the descent is broken and TSLA starts climbing above 210, things will look bright for the longs. If lots of shares come available and longs get spooked by a short-selling induced drop, then things look good for the shorts, at least temporarily. At some point, appetite by longs for shares before this weekend will prevail, I believe.
 
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View attachment 196329

I have a name for today's trading of TSLA: a work of fiction. Notice how there was a line drawn at 209 and shorts made a point of keeping TSLA below 209 after the frightening excursion to 210 earlier in the day. My guess is that shorts believe more shares to short are forthcoming and the availability of these shares will cause a SP decline. Just as longs don't like to catch falling knives and buy in while the SP is declining and relatively high, shorts are reluctant to sell in when the SP is relatively low and the SP is rising. Unfortunately for the shorts, TSLA was quite buoyant and would have risen above 209 if they hadn't intervened today, and that was in a very negative macro environment.

For shorts to succeed in depressing the SP and getting other shorts to join in the selling frenzy, substantial numbers of shares to short are needed, because it is the immediate availability of substantial numbers of shares at reasonable rates that not only enables the decline through shorting but it also provides the catalyst to get the ball started rolling downhill. If Tesla busts upward through 210 and accelerates its rate of climb this week, it's game over for the shorts this week. I wouldn't be surprised to see a selling flurry right at open tomorrow for the purpose of getting the ball rolling downhill. If the descent is broken and TSLA starts climbing above 210, things will look bright for the longs. If lots of shares come available and longs get spooked by a short-selling induced drop, then things look good for the shorts, at least temporarily. At some point, appetite by longs for shares before this weekend will prevail, I believe.
I'm kind of hoping the shorts do cause SCTY to drop because I do have some free cash to buy some more stock....
 
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I think Trump will win the debate handily tonight and it will give the market the jitters. If Trump becomes President I buy the major pullback hand over fist. Markets will roar back with repatriation of CASH.
Trump is a lie (literally). He won't win if there's any serious fact checking.
 
I'm pretty amazed that Tesla shares have managed to be fully shorted for so long. Do the shorts not realize that they are essentially making TSLA a well-paying dividend stock and thus support TSLA sp, which makes their own success nearly impossible as they continually pay interest?
Take a hypothetical example. Say if I as an investor lend out my TSLA shares at say 5% interest and thereby generate an income of approx $200k per annum on a TSLA position of say $4 million at current stock price of approx $208
Now if the interest rate goes to 14% like today, I'll generate $560k per year or if the stock goes to $250 then I'll accordingly get higher interest. So why on earth would I ever sell my TSLA stock because a. I get a super nice passive income of anywhere from $200 to $500 k per year by doing nothing except holding my stock for long term appreciation
b. It allows me to pay all my taxes plus cover margin c. The higher the stock price goes the more money I make
d. I can reinvest my income from stock lending and buy even more shares
I think either short sellers are delusional or egomaniacs or both
still, I love the fact that short sellers want to short TSLA so badly
I just filed my lending paperwork with Fidelity today and I'll keep you guys posted as to how it goes
 
Take a hypothetical example. Say if I as an investor lend out my TSLA shares at say 5% interest and thereby generate an income of approx $200k per annum on a TSLA position of say $4 million at current stock price of approx $208
Now if the interest rate goes to 14% like today, I'll generate $560k per year or if the stock goes to $250 then I'll accordingly get higher interest. So why on earth would I ever sell my TSLA stock because a. I get a super nice passive income of anywhere from $200 to $500 k per year by doing nothing except holding my stock for long term appreciation
b. It allows me to pay all my taxes plus cover margin c. The higher the stock price goes the more money I make
d. I can reinvest my income from stock lending and buy even more shares
I think either short sellers are delusional or egomaniacs or both
still, I love the fact that short sellers want to short TSLA so badly
I just filed my lending paperwork with Fidelity today and I'll keep you guys posted as to how it goes

I wonder if Musk every thinks about lending his shares. That would be like 208M in interest a year at that 5% rate for him if he's got 20M shares (don't remember the exact number).
 
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SolarCity Accused of Taking Shingled-Cell Module Secrets

SolarCity Corp., the rooftop solar developer controlled by Elon Musk, was accused of misappropriating trade secrets and other intellectual property in a lawsuit over the development of shingled-cell solar modules.

SolarCity got a head start in developing the modules after Cogenra Solar Inc. shared its shingling technology for manufacturing solar panels, according to a lawsuit filed Monday in San Francisco federal court. The suit also names SolarCity’s Silevo unit as a defendant.

"It was only by misappropriating Cogenra’s proprietary technology, including its trade secrets and other intellectual property, that SolarCity and Silevo were later able to announce a claim that they set a new world record for solar panel energy efficiency," Cogenra said in the complaint.


Khosla Ventures III LP, which owned about 80 percent of Cogenra from 2009 to 2015, is also a plaintiff in the case.

A SolarCity spokesman didn’t immediately respond to an e-mail seeking comment on the lawsuit.

The case is Cogenra Solar Inc. v. SolarCity Corp., 16-cv-05481, U.S. District Court, Northern District of California (San Francisco).
 
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