Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[30seconds]

Edmunds Says Model X Is Attracting Younger, More Affluent Buyers To Tesla

Exactly what I've been expecting... the high-end SUV market is on fire generally

I'll point out that this is loooking at registration data which is somewhat skewed. For one income families or families where one person make significantly more than the other, the registration is probably in the name of the higher income person. At these low low interest rates I also suspect that many buyers are using financing even if easy to pay cash.

I would be more interested in survey data to these owners on who is primary driver. I suspect it is significantly higher than 30%

 

[Gerardf]

I am about to open a short-lived thread, dedicated to amassing peoples' sales/deliveries numbers for 3Q. It will be here in the Investors' sector; I don't like to contribute to the proliferation of threads, though, so we'll close it down soon after TM's announcement next week. Special dispensation for whoever comes closest - maybe I'll cut that person some slack regarding Off-Topic or Off-Color postings....

You mean like : Q3'16 Delivery Estimates


Or do you mean more like the eu registration stats. ( in the wiki)
Tesla Europe Registration Stats

 

[AudubonB]

(To Gerard's recent post):
No - that is a fine thread but, going the way threads do, it gets all clogged up with commentary and so forth. Thus the short life of the one I mention - not a poll, but a place for people to post only their End-Of-Period best number. That's also why I'm creating it only now, on 30 Sept.

But I'm copying my above post and placing it over there as well.

 

[tander]

@tander et al:
Having slept on the matter, I begin to suspect we are taking about different kinds of options here.

The kind that the S-4/A Q/A mentions would be promises made out by the company, which they here promise to honor.

But then there are calls, puts and LEAPs -- other promises to buy or sell shares, made out not by the company. Those, I'm not sure who guarantees. Maybe the Market Maker, maybe the individual selling those options. (I never took that course.) It seems possible that one might want to just pocket the money and hide, rather than fulfilling the deal, if it can be done with low risk.

TL/DR:
The question of what happens to SCTY options after the merger remains open. Sorry for any confusion I spread!

I think Neroden was saying the according to the CBOT they just turn into weird TSLA options with the same fractional percentage as in the merger. I was going to go into the details and check for myself, except that in some thread someone mentioned that if they were going to become worthless, they already pretty much would be, which isn't the case, so that'd good enough deduction for me.

 

[MitchJi]

Regardless, I still think there will be a market anyway for local integrators and installers. It's a business that doesn't have obvious scaling advantages. There is always going to be someone who is going to climb the roof after all. And small companies will have it easy to carve out a place because they're not suffering from the overhead that a large public company has.

I still don't see how that's a problem for Tesla:
Tesla and AMS win another major energy storage contract, 34 MWh of battery capacity for water treatment facilities

Only a few weeks after announcing one of the biggest energy storage projects ever, Tesla Energy won again a massive energy storage contract. The automaker’s energy division will supply ‘Powerpacks’ to its energy storage deployment partner, Advanced Microgrid Solutions (AMS), for a major new project: a 7 MW / 34 MWh network of battery systems to support water treatment facilities of Irvine Ranch Water District (IRWD).

The project is part of Tesla’s supply agreement with Advanced Microgrid Solutions signed last year. Under the contract, Tesla will supply AMS with up to 500 MWh of energy storage.
<Snip>

 

[Lessmog]

I think Neroden was saying the according to the CBOT they just turn into weird TSLA options with the same fractional percentage as in the merger. I was going to go into the details and check for myself, except that in some thread someone mentioned that if they were going to become worthless, they already pretty much would be, which isn't the case, so that'd good enough deduction for me.

Yeah, and I think Brian[number] had a believable explanation, so I defer to greater wisdom.

 

[ggr]

I think Neroden was saying the according to the CBOT they just turn into weird TSLA options with the same fractional percentage as in the merger. I was going to go into the details and check for myself, except that in some thread someone mentioned that if they were going to become worthless, they already pretty much would be, which isn't the case, so that'd good enough deduction for me.

This discussion is getting boring, so I'll just summarize what will happen. By way of example, a SCTY Call option for 100 shares at strike of $30 (date irrelevant) will turn into a funky TSLA1 (I'm not sure of the name, but others have speculated that) Call option for 11 TSLA shares at a strike of $272.73 ($30/0.11 rounded up) with the same expiry date. It will be possible but difficult to trade these, as the market maker will not open new positions. But you can exercise them if/when they are in the money.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Okay. Who are all of these random trolls and long time lurkers who are popping up all of a sudden to troll here?

@NoEggs @Drivin

 

[Lessmog]

Okay. Who are all of these random trolls and long time lurkers who are popping up all of a sudden to troll here?

@NoEggs @Drivin

Okay, not recognizing No Eggs I took a look at their profile page:

Tesla Motors Club - Error

This member limits who may view their full profile

Drivin is recognized. Maybe both are Ignored.

 

[schonelucht]

I am about to open a short-lived thread, dedicated to amassing peoples' sales/deliveries numbers for 3Q. It will be here in the Investors' sector; I don't like to contribute to the proliferation of threads, though, so we'll close it down soon after TM's announcement next week. Special dispensation for whoever comes closest - maybe I'll cut that person some slack regarding Off-Topic or Off-Color postings....

There are already two threads that are suitable for that discussing.

 

[ggies07]

For those unsure or questioning Tesla's energy side, like "Where is it?", just give them time to ramp up, because it's coming....

https://thinkprogress.org/clean-energy-revolution-now-81a8e61134c7#.nx8oob8dc

Batteries are helping to enable the rapidly growing penetration of variable renewable sources like wind and solar

As a result, DOE projects “the total domestic energy storage market could be worth $2.9 billion by 2021, as compared to $350 million in 2015.”

I say every household will have a Tesla battery in their home like they did in the 50's/60's with a tv.

 

[dirtyofries]

Fred just smacked down the KanBan hit piece from yesterday.

Tesla’s paint shop is no bottleneck for Model 3, Tesla says ‘on track for 500,000 cars in 2018’

And based on what a lot of you have said about the paint process, I'm sold it was nothing but poorly-researched BS.

 

[EinSV]

Fred just smacked down the KanBan hit piece from yesterday.

Tesla’s paint shop is no bottleneck for Model 3, Tesla says ‘on track for 500,000 cars in 2018’

And based on what a lot of you have said about the paint process, I'm sold it was nothing but poorly-researched BS.

Someone should start a "Nonsense from Ed Niedermeyer and Bertel Schmitt" thread like the "Nonsense from John Peterson" thread. I think it's really useful to have this kind of thing in one place for future reference and future Tesla investors and interested parties.

I'll do it when I have more time but if anyone else is so inclined, please feel free ....

 

[larmor]

For those unsure or questioning Tesla's energy side, like "Where is it?", just give them time to ramp up, because it's coming....

https://thinkprogress.org/clean-energy-revolution-now-81a8e61134c7#.nx8oob8dc





I say every household will have a Tesla battery in their home like they did in the 50's/60's with a tv.

Agreed and even more important for factories and offices, paying prime time utility rates at 8-9 am. The savings is a simple calculation away from getting industrial time shifting batteries.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Ok so let me ask a quick question on selling TSLA and buying SCTY... I have seen some discussion on this in the past few days, but wasn't planning on acting so didn't pay much attention.

So if I read this right, every SCTY share will be worth 0.11 TSLA, which would mean that even if you sold TSLA today at 200 and bought SCTY from that money at 20, you'd get slightly more TSLA shares after the merger than you had before. Sounds a bit too good to be true so let me know if I missed something.

So I've been thinking today, that if Q3 numbers are what we expect on Monday and TSLA goes up by, say, 10% or more, and if SCTY does not follow it exactly at that pace, this gap may even widen.

Now I am not planning to go crazy and risk my long term shares but have some TSLA on my trading account and am being tempted to do this early next week if the numbers check out. I think the risk would be if the merger does not go through or if SCTY goes a lot lower before the merger (not sure what the last trading day of SCTY would be).

 

[ggr]

Ok so let me ask a quick question on selling TSLA and buying SCTY... I have seen some discussion on this in the past few days, but wasn't planning on acting so didn't pay much attention.

So if I read this right, every SCTY share will be worth 0.11 TSLA, which would mean that even if you sold TSLA today at 200 and bought SCTY from that money at 20, you'd get slightly more TSLA shares after the merger than you had before. Sounds a bit too good to be true so let me know if I missed something.

So I've been thinking today, that if Q3 numbers are what we expect on Monday and TSLA goes up by, say, 10% or more, and if SCTY does not follow it exactly at that pace, this gap may even widen.

Now I am not planning to go crazy and risk my long term shares but have some TSLA on my trading account and am being tempted to do this early next week if the numbers check out. I think the risk would be if the merger does not go through or if SCTY goes a lot lower before the merger (not sure what the last trading day of SCTY would be).

That's arbitrage for you. You're balancing free shares of TSLA against the risk that the merger won't happen. But I did exactly this, this morning. Actually, I sold some long term TSLA and bought some Nov 4 and Jan '19 options to more than replace the number of shares.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

Jan '19 options

Did you mean Jan 19 '18 options? I don't think the '19 LEAPS are trading yet.

 

[Lessmog]

Did you mean Jan 19 '18 options? I don't think the '19 LEAPS are trading yet.

"One small step for my little finger, one giant leap for my LEAP"

 

[Crowded Mind]

Did you mean Jan 19 '18 options? I don't think the '19 LEAPS are trading yet.

SCTY Jan 2019 options are trading.

 

[racer26]

Correct. If monday pops the TSLA SP significantly and SCTY doesn't follow quickly, there would be a widening of the arb gap, which could make it a good idea to ride the TSLA pop, then sell TSLA and buy SCTY to wait for the merger.