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MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
You need to be sure that the merger vote has completed before your options expire or the gap might not close. Nov 4 seems pretty risky to me.
Lots of good discussion in this thread (last two or three weeks).
TSLA Trading Strategies
You are stating the obvious - that BES at this point is not competitive as far as straight energy supply goes (at around 0.18 EUR/kWh in Netherlands in 2015). Not sure, though, how is it related to my post, as it was about TE using agregation of installed Powerwal capacity to sell services to the grid.
You are describing here what I called grid services in my post. I am not sure why you imply that TE can't participate in the auctions conducted by the Netherland's Transmission System Operator (TSO), TenneT.
I suspect that TE will be using their own installation force. If that is the case Tesla solar/battery system will not be available to the independent installer.
bdy0627
Active Member
I have been investing in TSLA for about 18 months now and this is the most certain I have been about a highly positive quarter. Given the modest rise in SP today, it's hard to imagine that the general market has much of an idea about the likelihood of a stellar quarter for TSLA. It seems obvious to me reading through pages and pages of good, heavily researched info here. Of course, there are a number of us who research this stuff to death and track TSLA things daily but I would guess the majority of investors do not do this. If you didn't dig for information then it probably is not very clear that TSLA may be about to blow things up. The heavy short interest, even if it has suppressed the share price, should serve to make the stock all the more explosive if it does fire up on Monday based upon Tesla's deliveries. My thoughts anyway. I'm really looking forward to next week!
and keef Wivanoff /ralph vader /keef leech (the 'whompy wheels/failing suspension, etc
"Nonsense from Ed Niedermeyer and Bertel Schmitt"
Well, if the 'bets' are placed now if we get numbers before market open on Monday the 3rd. I am not sure they will have them (or release them) that soon. I expect we may have some more market discussion/gyrations on Monday, and possibly Tuesday before numbers are released.
Good luck to longs and to those that have placed short term 'bets' ( Oh, I mean options)
Good luck to longs and to those that have placed short term 'bets' ( Oh, I mean options)
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
Phil Lebeau reporting USA on track for record vehicle sales again this year! Negative nellies have been so wrong.
esk8mw...see the last trade on our Oct 7 215s. Someone made a mistake - $2.93 on the close...hope it opens Monday at that or higher.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TSLA161007C00215000
Hmm interesting, checking it out in Level II because it wasn't reported on my chart. It shows a special notation - "This trade was not displayed as a last price because it was part of a spread trade, reported late or has other special conditions."
Interesting. There were similar trades @ $3.03 at 11:51 and $2.90 at 9:07. Not sure what could cause trades to go off so high above the B/A spread (which was otherwise between .60 and 1.30 or so all day).
I'd love a 10% pop in TSLA on Monday...
The last few quarters delivery numbers have always come out within 3 calender days, not 3 business days. We should have numbers Sunday or Monday at the latest. I bought calls expecting a nice pop in the SP, but I have to say that I'm less optimistic now. It seems like Wallstreet is expecting the numbers but doesn't expect them to have impact because they were achieved using sale prices that can't be maintained, and they think (incorrectly) that demand will drop next quarter without lower prices. I think Wallstreet is also expecting poor gross margins because of 60kW model and the price drops. I have no doubt that TSLA is a good long term bet over the next 1-5 years, but I'm losing faith that we will see higher than 240 this year. I hope I'm wrong.
To veteran TSLA investors that personally experienced the 2013 "short squeeze" aka Tsunami of Hurt part 1(TOH1), were there pre-indications then of a stellar, profitable quarter prior to announcement? What was the mood like then and how does it compare to right now (if it can even be compared)? For me, the evidence seems to point to a stellar delivery announcement next week but somehow, the SP action seems muted in anticipation.
Back in early 2013, Tesla was where SolarCity is right now in terms of sentiment and short interest. It had short interest near 50 to 60%, but now around 30%.
I was tempted to buying a lottery ticket (ahem, call option) for next week's action, but this morning I went in with stocks instead @ $200 dead even. At least I won't lose everything if things went bad. If by Monday there's still no announcement, I'll probably buy a small lottery ticket and join whoever this person is who spent $1.3 million in call options for the stock price jump: One trader’s plan to make $12.6 million by betting on Tesla
BTW, WTF is going on with Google Finance? They're not showing options correctly like it used to. It is currently showing Dec. 2016 options. Sigh.
stealthology
Member
I've been thinking about this. Of course, back then we had Elon's profitability tweet but there was a sense after that that a good quarter was then already priced in. So the Q1 2013 ER was not the no-brainer that it appears to be in retrospect because the stock had already gone from the 30s to the 50s, which seemed like a big jump at the time. You can still go back to the 2013 short-term thread and relive the excitement for yourself if you have the time.
I'm actually more bullish on this quarter than I've ever been, including 2013 Q1. This actually scares me, because it seems that when the bulls are the most confident is when things don't turn out as planned. It just almost seems too easy this quarter. We'll find out soon enough. Good luck, longs.
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