To veteran TSLA investors that personally experienced the 2013 "short squeeze" aka Tsunami of Hurt part 1(TOH1), were there pre-indications then of a stellar, profitable quarter prior to announcement? What was the mood like then and how does it compare to right now (if it can even be compared)? For me, the evidence seems to point to a stellar delivery announcement next week but somehow, the SP action seems muted in anticipation.
-The current is a wholly different contextual than 2013. I can express a series of short markers
-Tesla was widely considered to be headed for bankruptcy by massive shorting (more than twice today and against a much smaller long base- Instutuationally and otherwise).
-The entire market (by any measure) was still in a high growth recovery state from the recession. That is no longer the case
-The short squeeze was effectively engineered against large capital gain equity offerings that Elon and other supported to help maintain he value post squeeze.(that's partially why we've also stayed flat after $200 waiting for he next major proven catalyst)
-Yes we had many on this forum who by-the-numbers had the basic squeeze time pegged based on ER etc.
But hey we're largely unexpected - Note it was a bit easier because the short activity was an order of magnitude more revealing. Even then it was months in the making
-Tesla is now in an early maturing stage and the market is at high PEs- We are definitely entering a very strong inducement for TSLA strength and short covering (more of a bear hug than a squeeze IMO)
Many of us have been strong-long TSLA from $25+
Many of those who made their mark in the 2013 squeeze are long gone
My advice is to avoid making those parallels- they won't happen again in the same way and will likely be much more fraught with fluctuation. That said imo this is a good time to be in stock long (much upward momentum over the next year)- perhaps some LEAPs. Anything else should be in discretionary funds of high risk imo. This is currently an excellent stock buying op imo.
Although I believe TSLA will move up firmly soon, I would caution that playing a 2013 squeeze correlation could be fraught with frustration. Tesla is in a massively new phase now.
my 2 pennies
but even though TM had challenges ahead of it then it did not have ANY competition on the horizon OR the unsettling thought of a merger with another struggling company on the horizon.
