dreamingof3
Member
Depends on if a big player knows about this and wants to start buying in here. I would say yes (that is hope talking)
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AprilDelivery??
Member
Nope, I,m wrong . It just dipped below 160 , now 159.73 . Always go with the trend ! But I can't short , no shorts available !!!
Actually my experience is that almost every 3d in financial forums all over the world is :wink:
Mine as well, but since I want to keep making money in the markets for years to come, it's my job to find a bottom. And by the time FOMO kicks back in, it's often too late.
Runarbt
Active Member
kenliles
Active Member
- Jun 7, 2012
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jesselivenomore
Member
This is a dangerous game, absolutely. However there is a million ways to play.
The reason why Munger/Buffet do not touch tech stocks is because they cannot confidently value growth stocks using earnings metrics. So much of the valuation is taking account future expectations. And things can change so fast in these businesses. For their strategy of buying low, averaging down etc. they want something they can accurately measure.
A growth stock offers higher ROI while taking on greater risk. They behave much more capriciously because they do not have the underlying earnings to support price in case of sentiment change. For instance a NFLX can drop 80% just because customers were pissed that they raised prices.
IMHO, buying low ala Munger/Buffet is a better play for value stocks, where a trend following strategy is more suitable for growth stocks. You still get to participate in the upside while avoiding the oversized down swings. Of course it is not so easy, first you have to identify an "uptrend" or "downtrend" before it is too late. Which is the name of the game.
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AprilDelivery??
Member
I've been shorting TSLA for last few months but it always bounces . I shorted it at 219 , it bounced to 225. I shorted at 242 it bounced to 244-3 !! Whats the story? Short the rallies buy the dips??
dreamingof3
Member
AprilDelivery??
Member
I think Monday it hits 150-145 , tuesday 135-145. wednesday 125-135. Then tesla beats earnings then it bounces to 145-155 . They days of over 200 will have to wait till June?
i think its oversold now. The stock fell over 20% in just 4 days. Recovery will come..
Tesla will bounce because there is no reason for this sell off. Elon and Fisher are buying at this price, so am I. Volatility works both ways. LinkedIn falling 50% and Google acting weak is likely spooking the market.
Tesla broke below a technical point because of some nonsensical news, that won't have any effect on Tesla's future profits.
When the only topics journalists are writing about involve some strange Union using Elon's image to promote their union without Elon's knowledge, a false comment by a blogger claiming Elon stole his Tesla, and a rude customer (who is angry at Elon because of PayPal) saying Tesla is a bad company because they blacklisted him for being a jerk who felt entitled to be first in line at the Model X unveiling and be entitled to a free 4 course dinner , it's time to buy.
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Tesla broke below a technical point because of some nonsensical news, that won't have any effect on Tesla's future profits.
When the only topics journalists are writing about involve some strange Union using Elon's image to promote their union without Elon's knowledge, a false comment by a blogger claiming Elon stole his Tesla, and a rude customer (who is angry at Elon because of PayPal) saying Tesla is a bad company because they blacklisted him for being a jerk who felt entitled to be first in line at the Model X unveiling and be entitled to a free 4 course dinner , it's time to buy.
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With no short sales on Monday, I don't see why the trend would be lower. Tuesday - All bets are off.
Papafox
Active Member
- Jan 12, 2013
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Really no basis for those numbers. If you believe so, you can short, but with ER approaching that would be very dangerous.
Oops, no you can't short. Rules are saving you, I suspect. Besides, without shorts you are unlikely to see a big drop on Monday.
any little positive tweet from elon will act like a spark in a room full of explosives. How much short sold shares we have? 32Million??
Papafox
Active Member
- Jan 12, 2013
- 4,914
- 54,804
Max pain is 175 today. While that number looks out of reach, I suspect market makers will be working with tractor beam to pull TSLA up to the highest 2.5 point spot possible. Without a tug-of-war with shorts, they should be reasonably effective.
dc_h
Active Member
A lot of people predicted the 2000 bubble. Cisco's market was 30 times sales and 175 profit. It was worth more than everything else on the market. Tesla is 2 times sales and not currently profitable, but on track for 70% growth in 2016 and probably leveling out to 30% growth in 2017, before accelerating in 2018 -- according to plan anyhow.
Since a stock valuation is based on net present value and not current earnings or sales, the question is if TSLA will create 22 billion in earnings, discounted for risk and opportunity costs. If you think they will earn as much per unit of sale in the future, forever, there is no NPV. If you believe they can raise their margins slightly and that R&D and Capex will decline as a percentage of sales, and they can improve manufacturer processes and reduce the cost of batteries, you should come up with a positive NPV.
If they grow at 50 YoY for another 7 years, assuming 8 billion in sales for 2016, they will have 137 billion in revenue in 2023. That is a big assumption, but if it worked out, and if they have maintained a consumer perception of market leader, they will have pricing advantages of a BMW and similar if not better margins. If these were knowable, there would be no debate. Can Tesla grow this fast, in theory they can. Can they grow that fast without increasing leverage (return to market for capital), not likely. Anyhow, if they do grow at this rate and they earn 5-8% net margin, they could be making 10 billion a year in 7 years. If I could invest 22 billion elsewhere, I could find a safer 3-5% return in consumer goods or ATT\VZ. I might also find higher growth, and less capital constraints with Facebook.
In the end, the NPV of Tesla is based on the markets perception of that sustainable growth rate and if that growth will be accompanied by future profitability. They will hit the law of large numbers sometime after 2020. If successful, not until about 2027, when they would be at 3 to 5 million in car sales. If they can't improve margins and become cash flow positive, we won't have to worry about the law of large numbers.
Good to see the bears come out of the woodwork and good to see some of the past bulls re-enter the ring. Next week will be very interesting. Some of those disinterested academics like Jim Chanos may be on CNBC crowing after earnings, or they will be busy trying to cash out their short earnings, if they can find a door.
*Note, 15 years after the bubble, Cisco's market cap was 555 billion and it never hit 50 billion in sales. Tesla will likely hit 22 billion in sales in 2018. This is like comparing apples and elephants.
Since a stock valuation is based on net present value and not current earnings or sales, the question is if TSLA will create 22 billion in earnings, discounted for risk and opportunity costs. If you think they will earn as much per unit of sale in the future, forever, there is no NPV. If you believe they can raise their margins slightly and that R&D and Capex will decline as a percentage of sales, and they can improve manufacturer processes and reduce the cost of batteries, you should come up with a positive NPV.
If they grow at 50 YoY for another 7 years, assuming 8 billion in sales for 2016, they will have 137 billion in revenue in 2023. That is a big assumption, but if it worked out, and if they have maintained a consumer perception of market leader, they will have pricing advantages of a BMW and similar if not better margins. If these were knowable, there would be no debate. Can Tesla grow this fast, in theory they can. Can they grow that fast without increasing leverage (return to market for capital), not likely. Anyhow, if they do grow at this rate and they earn 5-8% net margin, they could be making 10 billion a year in 7 years. If I could invest 22 billion elsewhere, I could find a safer 3-5% return in consumer goods or ATT\VZ. I might also find higher growth, and less capital constraints with Facebook.
In the end, the NPV of Tesla is based on the markets perception of that sustainable growth rate and if that growth will be accompanied by future profitability. They will hit the law of large numbers sometime after 2020. If successful, not until about 2027, when they would be at 3 to 5 million in car sales. If they can't improve margins and become cash flow positive, we won't have to worry about the law of large numbers.
Good to see the bears come out of the woodwork and good to see some of the past bulls re-enter the ring. Next week will be very interesting. Some of those disinterested academics like Jim Chanos may be on CNBC crowing after earnings, or they will be busy trying to cash out their short earnings, if they can find a door.
*Note, 15 years after the bubble, Cisco's market cap was 555 billion and it never hit 50 billion in sales. Tesla will likely hit 22 billion in sales in 2018. This is like comparing apples and elephants.
AprilDelivery??
Member
Institutions can still sell ahead of earnings. Most of the selling is not shorts. Retail people can still sell the long stock !
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