Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[ggr]

Can someone who knows about this stuff tell me/us how the short trigger rule is implemented? Do the brokerages just refuse to allow the security to be borrowed?

 

[AprilDelivery??]

Can someone who knows about this stuff tell me/us how the short trigger rule is implemented? Do the brokerages just refuse to allow the security to be borrowed?

If the stock goes down 10% or more the stock hits the short trigger rule . Tesla hit 10 % down today !

 

[aznt1217]

Can someone who knows about this stuff tell me/us how the short trigger rule is implemented? Do the brokerages just refuse to allow the security to be borrowed?

It occurs when the price drops more than 10% from the previous day's close. You just can't put the order in

 

[Papafox]

Institutions can still sell ahead of earnings. Most of the selling is not shorts. Retail people can still sell the long stock !

Well, take a look at this hour's trajectory of TSLA without the shorts playing games. As long as the broader markets are behaving themselves on Monday, we won't see a repeat of today.

 

[dreamingof3]

With no short sales on Monday, I don't see why the trend would be lower. Tuesday - All bets are off.

Feeding the trolls is inadvisable :smile:. The largest institutional holders with cash for certain are buying here. Friday is payday! You know Fidelity has some large inflows coming into 401k

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Well, take a look at this hour's trajectory of TSLA without the shorts playing games. As long as the broader markets are behaving themselves on Monday, we won't see a repeat of today.

Agree-I'd pay good money to know the short number at this second.

 

[sundaymorning]

Institutions can still sell ahead of earnings. Most of the selling is not shorts. Retail people can still sell the long stock !

From recollection most institutions have much higher price targets than the present would indicate. Maybe for the exception of a few of course. Once the selling is over, get ready for a rally.

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any little positive tweet from elon will act like a spark in a room full of explosives. How much short sold shares we have? 32Million??

I'm not counting on a tweet, but I am counting on guidance to silence the critics.

 

[Papafox]

As Thursday approaches next week, some of the smarter shorts will be taking profits (buying) before the ER. A lot of shorts are sitting on big paper gains at the moment. An ER and CC can be dangerous and I expect to see some shorts covering before it unless the broader markets are doing something really crazy.

 

[AprilDelivery??]

For first time in seven years, advice moves away from buy the dips​

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bearish-jp-morgan-says-sell-stocks-on-any-bounce-2016-01-11

 

[TSLAopt]

haven't had time to follow the thread or post lately, but just wanted to add my two cents...

I can't call a bottom but I can tell you that in my view the stock is now in crazy good buy territory. it could get in even crazier territory, but I think the odds of a long term buy here working out well are at an extremely rare level of high probability any of us will see for any stock. I say this based on my own valuation model which I've been doing since 2012 and having looked at a few analysts valuation models in full detail.

I agree. The herd is fleeing all of the big winner stocks from the past few years in this macro market volatility.

Fundamentally, the value of a stock should represent all future dividends of that stock discounted back to today. "IF" Tesla was going to stop growing in the next 1-2 years and max out at $15bn of annual revenue going forward without the added expenses of growing further then the dividends they could start issueing from that point forward makes sense for today's stock price of about $20bn market cap today.

However, anyone investing in Tesla should be doing so for the future growth in the next 5 years+ and should understand that dividends would not be generated by TSLA until growth slows down. That in my opinion will be more than a decade out from here. However, the reward at the point should be huge (similar to those who invested in AAPL 15-20 years ago and are now seeing huge dividends compared to their investment 15-20 years ago). Until we get closer to that there could be huge swings on the stock price volatility which will make it very painful and/or rewarding for short term trading.

 

[ohmman]

Well, take a look at this hour's trajectory of TSLA without the shorts playing games. As long as the broader markets are behaving themselves on Monday, we won't see a repeat of today.

Compare it to the broader market, which didn't have short restrictions. What do you see?

 

[Papafox]

Compare it to the broader market, which didn't have short restrictions. What do you see?

I see the NASDAQ falling below it's 3pm level and TSLA up a fair amount from that level, validating my point. Granted, TSLA is getting some help from market-makers this past hour, but that effort by the MMs likely would not have been as successful without a hold on the shorts.

 

[AudubonB]

The largest institutional holders with cash for certain are buying here. Friday is payday! You know Fidelity has some large inflows coming into 401k

CAUTION input here. Please remember that, although on the face of it there is a buyer for every seller, there also is an asymmetrical disequilbrium that CAN occur. That is, it may be not the Fidelitys of the world that are scooping up the many sellers' shares, but it might be a short-seller who is closing out.

 

[Noble Ninja]

CAUTION input here. Please remember that, although on the face of it there is a buyer for every seller, there also is an asymmetrical disequilbrium that CAN occur. That is, it may be not the Fidelitys of the world that are scooping up the many sellers' shares, but it might be a short-seller who is closing out.

If I were short now, I'd be closing my position and cashing out as mere paper profits mean nothing. As the saying goes, "Bulls make money, Bears make money and Pigs get slaughtered."

 

[AlMc]

If I were short now, I'd be closing my position and cashing out as mere paper profits mean nothing. As the saying goes, "Bulls make money, Bears make money and Pigs get slaughtered."

I agree. I have never shorted a stock but I do use 'puts'. I set up two strangles for the ER about 7-10 days ago. Closing out 1/2 my put positions covered the entire cost of the strangle. Why close: Don't be greedy.

Shorts have the opposite thesis short term for TSLA/TM than most people on this forum but ultimately they are doing what they think makes them money just like we do.

Just because they have an opposite thesis on TSLA than many of us don't believe for a second they don't have the same diverse group of people: some who are smart and take profits after a nice 'run down', others predict TSLA drops to $100 (like many bulls here were predicting $400/500 by Dec 31st here) and hang on to that thesis as the stock goes up and up and they lose money.

Smart shorts are covering.

 

[antochat]

Sitting.

I have no need for the liquidity since it was money I never really needed.

There's no sense in selling during an obvious panic. People who are freaking out should never have invested in TSLA to begin with.

Agreed.

 

[Lonnie123]

Noob question here guys:

I bought in 15 shares at 267... Does it make any sense to sell those now, then rebuy ASAP. At the current price it would take me from 15 to 24 shares (no tax loss harvesting as this is in my Roth IRA). I am long and intend to hold for a loooong time, like 2025 or beyond.

Does that matter at all, or is it only the cost basis that matters? Intuitively it seems like having 24 shares is "better" than having 15 if it goes back up 100 points.

 

[theschnell]

Noob question here guys:

I bought in 15 shares at 267... Does it make any sense to sell those now, then rebuy ASAP. At the current price it would take me from 15 to 24 shares (no tax loss harvesting as this is in my Roth IRA). I am long and intend to hold for a loooong time, like 2025 or beyond.

Does that matter at all, or is it only the cost basis that matters? Intuitively it seems like having 24 shares is "better" than having 15 if it goes back up 100 points.

I hope you can figure this out on your own, or you have no business buying stocks. Just think each transaction through and see where you end up.

 

[dirtyofries]

Noob question here guys:

I bought in 15 shares at 267... Does it make any sense to sell those now, then rebuy ASAP. At the current price it would take me from 15 to 24 shares (no tax loss harvesting as this is in my Roth IRA). I am long and intend to hold for a loooong time, like 2025 or beyond.

Does that matter at all, or is it only the cost basis that matters? Intuitively it seems like having 24 shares is "better" than having 15 if it goes back up 100 points.

This has to be a joke...right?

Like, do you honestly believe if you sell your shares today that you'll get what you paid for them when it was 267?

I can't believe this is real.

 

[Lessmog]

I hope you can figure this out on your own, or you have no business buying stocks. Just think each transaction through and see where you end up.

Tough love, but good advice.

 

[Yodi]

Am i right to be worried for wallstreet? My concern is that their eps est is +0.08 and i am pretty sure we will get -0.20 to -0.30