Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Johan]

Noob question here guys:

I bought in 15 shares at 267... Does it make any sense to sell those now, then rebuy ASAP. At the current price it would take me from 15 to 24 shares (no tax loss harvesting as this is in my Roth IRA). I am long and intend to hold for a loooong time, like 2025 or beyond.

Does that matter at all, or is it only the cost basis that matters? Intuitively it seems like having 24 shares is "better" than having 15 if it goes back up 100 points.

This post should be in TSLA trading strategies thread. It's a novel and bold strategy that could pay off in the end. Seems like a way to make money both on the way up and down.

BTW, you should trust your intuition here; having 24 shares is better than having 15, even at the current price!

 

[theschnell]

This post should be in TSLA trading strategies thread. It's a novel and bold strategy that could pay off in the end. Seems like a way to make money both on the way up and down.

BTW, you should trust your intuition here; having 24 shares is better than having 15, even at the current price!

I had similar thoughts. If only it could work this way we would all be thrilled!

 

[Causalien]

Ah, another 7%. Almost time to come back and pump.

 

[Papafox]

I agree. I have never shorted a stock but I do use 'puts'. I set up two strangles for the ER about 7-10 days ago. Closing out 1/2 my put positions covered the entire cost of the strangle. Why close: Don't be greedy.

Shorts have the opposite thesis short term for TSLA/TM than most people on this forum but ultimately they are doing what they think makes them money just like we do.

Just because they have an opposite thesis on TSLA than many of us don't believe for a second they don't have the same diverse group of people: some who are smart and take profits after a nice 'run down', others predict TSLA drops to $100 (like many bulls here were predicting $400/500 by Dec 31st here) and hang on to that thesis as the stock goes up and up and they lose money.

Smart shorts are covering.

It is so much easier to see greed getting the better of shorts than it is to see greed getting the better of us longs. I remember watching TSLA zooming upward through 290 on the last really good short squeeze, with no thought of selling anything until we reached 300. When the market is saying "it's time to take profits", listen if you hold options or are anything but a "hold until Model 3 is in full production" long. Ah, the lessons of time.

 

[Johan]

Ah, another 7%. Almost time to come back and pump.

You and Julian should co-author a piece on Seeking Alpha, to bring the market capitalization up $20-30Bn. Thanks in advance.

 

[Lonnie123]

This has to be a joke...right?

Like, do you honestly believe if you sell your shares today that you'll get what you paid for them when it was 267?

I can't believe this is real.

where did I say that?

I said I would accept the loss but then have 50% more shares. Not that someone would pay me 267 for my shares today.

 

[dha]

where did I say that?

I said I would accept the loss but then have 50% more shares. Not that someone would pay me 267 for my shares today.

I think what we're all very confused about is how you would be able purchase 24 shares today with the proceeds of 15 shares sold today.

 

[dirtyofries]

where did I say that?

I said I would accept the loss but then have 50% more shares. Not that someone would pay me 267 for my shares today.

How would you have more shares? You'd be selling your 15 shares for $162. If you quickly repurchased them as you said, you'd be buying them...again, at $162 (plus all the applicable fees). So unless you plan on spending more money to purchase more shares you will be left with exactly the same number.

I don't know where you're getting the idea you'll end up with more shares without spending more money.

 

[Lonnie123]

I hope you can figure this out on your own, or you have no business buying stocks. Just think each transaction through and see where you end up.

I probably didnt have have any business buying them when I did, so now I'm trying to perhaps mitigate the damage. I'm asking for help is all. If this is the wrong place I'll go elsewhere.

 

[McMuggets]

where did I say that?

I said I would accept the loss but then have 50% more shares. Not that someone would pay me 267 for my shares today.

It doesn't make any sense how you can trade 15 shares for 24 shares at the same price. Sell 15 shares at $160.... Rebuy at $160 and get 24 shares? Sounds like magic!

 

[Lonnie123]

Ahhh thanks everyone. I see my dumb mistake. Will not sell.

 

[McMuggets]

I probably didnt have have any business buying them when I did, so now I'm trying to perhaps mitigate the damage. I'm asking for help is all. If this is the wrong place I'll go elsewhere.

Honestly if you have a good time horizon (5+ years) you should just sit on those 15 shares or add to them by doubling down at today's price. You'll get 24 shares for the same amount of money you got 15 shares for.

 

[Johan]

Honestly if you have a good time horizon (5+ years) you should just sit on those 15 shares or add to them by doubling down at today's price. You'll get 24 shares for the same amount of money you got 15 shares for.

Somehow I would feel a little bad about advising someone with this particular level of understanding of the stock market to double down. On any stock. Ever.

 

[Todd Burch]

I probably didnt have have any business buying them when I did, so now I'm trying to perhaps mitigate the damage. I'm asking for help is all. If this is the wrong place I'll go elsewhere.

Lonnie, I've made a nice chunk of change on Tesla--not by speculating, but by being patient. Here's what I suggest:

If you truly believe in Tesla as it sounds like you do, then just hold. Don't worry about this big dip. Every time there's market "panic" like this, the BS starts to fly. People commenting about Tesla's bankruptcy, Tesla is doomed, blah blah blah. It's all bull. Tesla may be ramping Model X a little slower than they'd like, but the fundamentals haven't changed, the product hasn't changed, and Tesla has a lot of good news on the horizon.

Remember what Warren Buffet says: The best time to buy is when everyone seems to be panicking. In your case, maybe you're not in the position to buy, but just hold, and be patient. This will pass and Tesla will soar again. I have some shares I bought at $248. I've been tempted to sell several times, but rather than speculate, I'm just comfortable knowing that upcoming news will be good and will drive the price to all-time highs. Profitable quarters are coming.

 

[Causalien]

LOL sorry guys. Friday was my fault. I was caught in a 6.5 magnitude earthquake.

Crystal ball acting out.

 

[yesla]

Deleted

 

[FluxCap]

LOL sorry guys. Friday was my fault. I was caught in a 6.5 magnitude earthquake.

Crystal ball acting out.

I blame plate tectonics.

 

[theschnell]

Ahhh thanks everyone. I see my dumb mistake. Will not sell.

No worries. Glad it clicked for you. I felt a little bad about my response, but at the same time just thought it would be best for you to think it through on your own. Just laugh this one off and keep hanging around. Hopefully better times ahead.

- - - Updated - - -

LOL sorry guys. Friday was my fault. I was caught in a 6.5 magnitude earthquake.

Crystal ball acting out.

Do earthquakes typically follow you around???

If so, please stay away from Fremont. Thanks.

 

[Causalien]

No worries. Glad it clicked for you. I felt a little bad about my response, but at the same time just thought it would be best for you to think it through on your own. Just laugh this one off and keep hanging around. Hopefully better times ahead.

- - - Updated - - -



Do earthquakes typically follow you around???

If so, please stay away from Fremont. Thanks.

It's usually coup d'etat (thailand) and volcano eruptions (indonesia) Earthquakes only happened here and while I was in Nepal. But nepal was more of a quake+avalanche. Europe managed to take me in without any natural disasters though.

... I want to go to this year's shareholder meeting though.

 

[Lonnie123]

No worries. Glad it clicked for you. I felt a little bad about my response, but at the same time just thought it would be best for you to think it through on your own. Just laugh this one off and keep hanging around. Hopefully better times ahead.

Yeah in my equation I mapped out I kept my original cost basis the same instead of adjusting it... Something seemed fishy so I came here first before pulling the trigger... Very glad I did.

Again, Thanks for the kick in the butt. I'd rather make a virtual mistake than a real one