racer26
Active Member
I'm loving all the analysts expectations continuing to come in at negative numbers. Come on Elon, time for big numbers.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
I don't think I'm hung up on semantics about thing-by-wire. What it means, and has meant for many decades since at least the F-16 fighter jet was released, is simply that the controls generate signals (and sometimes there is feedback) to cause something else steering or braking to happen. It has nothing to do with autonomy or the presence or absence of a control like the brake pedal or steering wheel.
If your new platform has "water leaks, and infotainment and climate-control system problems", maybe you should be having the CEO on the floor fixing things and/or preventing the car from going out.
The doors are a "platform" issue, infotainment issues, not so much.
My 8 year old daughter maintains that she never wants to learn to drive. Listening to me, she figures she won't have to.
Lowering expectations is a GOOD thing. A hit piece would some smart alec calling for some $2.00 EPS to try to position actuals as a disappointment.
Today Bloomberg indicates, at least in a superficial view, that today's activity is all about M&A. I think that is overblown just because of the AT&T merger with Time Warner. The synergy of that merge escaped me until an interview with the M&A manager of J.P. Morgan (forgot her name) who clarified AT&T has the consumer data so can leverage with it access to content. Duh! (Yes I am a blockhead until things are simply explained.)
Elsewhere in discussion of regulatory approval, Bloomberg analysts say vertical integration seems to be the mantra today.
If you've followed the overlong presentation by Ng at the Nvidia site, the key to AI is very high processing power combined with very large data bases. That is key to Tesla's edge in AP.
I know its a contrarian view for many here but that may also be why vertical integration through the SCTY acquisition is just another example of Musk leading at least today's market focus on M&A. The synergy of capturing two markets, or three, in one store has already been discussed fully on this thread.
Elsewhere in discussion of regulatory approval, Bloomberg analysts say vertical integration seems to be the mantra today.
If you've followed the overlong presentation by Ng at the Nvidia site, the key to AI is very high processing power combined with very large data bases. That is key to Tesla's edge in AP.
I know its a contrarian view for many here but that may also be why vertical integration through the SCTY acquisition is just another example of Musk leading at least today's market focus on M&A. The synergy of capturing two markets, or three, in one store has already been discussed fully on this thread.
racer26
Active Member
Playing along with everyone else, I picked up a few lotto tickets in the form of Nov11@225 TSLA for $1.27
MartinAustin
Active Member
Indeed. I saw a news item in my Fidelity feed this morning saying Tesla was expected to have a smaller GAAP loss than usual, and a non-GAAP break-even.
If the climate on this forum is anything to go by (which is a pretty accurate guess after our little competition to guess vehicle deliveries), Tesla will see a definite non-GAAP profit and perhaps even a small GAAP profit.
MartinAustin
Active Member
My usual watchlist of stocks is almost all green. The only one that's in the red today? MBLY
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
3Victoria
Active Member
Tesla is getting self-driving cars to market first by being imperfect, but better than humans
Explains Tesla's plan pretty well. As usual Fred comes through.
Explains Tesla's plan pretty well. As usual Fred comes through.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
In some ways he does a good job. In some ways he completely misses the major advantages of Tesla's approach.
Just my view. If you want to buy calls, I suggest not buying October 28th November 4th, or November 11th calls, even though it's possible they will go up a lot. There are many longer dated calls that have very little time premium priced in.
In other words, those calls might be a great bargain, but there are other ways to get the same or more exposure, that in my view are less expensive.
I have one question for anyone buying October 28th, November 4th, or November 11th calls today. Why didn't you buy them last week?
In other words, those calls might be a great bargain, but there are other ways to get the same or more exposure, that in my view are less expensive.
I have one question for anyone buying October 28th, November 4th, or November 11th calls today. Why didn't you buy them last week?
Theta, in my case.
I suspect a few people on here are buying arbitrary calls expecting them to go up 'a lot' if the stock jumps a lot after earnings.
I'm not going to speculate about who is doing this, or say if I think the stock will go up a lot after earnings. However, I hope this post acts as a reminder to people to look at the long term picture, and all available options before initiating any options strategy.
Options can be used to hedge, increase exposure, or as a way of obtaining a weekly or monthly payment of sorts if you think the stock will be somewhat range bound for a particular period of time, and for other things.
Expecting calls to go up a lot is not a strategy. I hope no-one on here is buying too many 'lottery tickets'.
what do you mean... holding the stock is a lottery ticket!!! --- oh no... troll alert!... just a little closing hour humor.
I agree with your words of caution about options.
But, I have highlighted two portions in particular: I agree that this is a catch all thread but it is suppose to be a 'short term' thread and discussion of how one positions themselves in the short term for an ER seems to be fair game.
You are correct that this is a stock ripe for long term investors who have a long term perspective about TM. A true long term investor has little concern for one ER.
'Expecting call to go up' is a strategy. It is a trader's strategy. It is not a long term investor strategy I grant you.
'Lottery Tickets': Whether they be puts or calls they can be an investment strategy to mitigate risk of a longer term position.
Again, I agree that options are not for everyone and I have been on the right and wrong side of these trades.
racer26
Active Member
I did buy some longer dated ones (Jan 2017 220s) last week. I also had a little spare cash kicking around from a small position I cashed out of in the tail end of last week and wanted a bit more exposure for the ER, hence today's grab of Nov11 225s, where the idea was low cost in case it doesn't pan out (and because there was only a few hundred dollars available to make the trade), but big reward if the ER goes as gangbusters as I expect, while still having some time buffer in case I'm wrong (got burned several times in recent memory on buy the rumor, sell the news type events with too-close expiries). I chose the Nov 11 expiry for this position because going to a longer dated expiry meant I'd have to step up further on the strike scale than I was comfortable with to stay within the budget for this position, and the shorter expiries weren't enough cheaper to make it worthwhile for me.
When lots of people buy short term calls, they are likely to be disappointed because their purchase reinforce "buy the rumor sell the fact" effect.
In my view, if I lose one dollar in these lottery tickets, I actually lose $20. I could just keep the dollar in the shares and watch them grow for the next 10 years.
"Expecting calls to go up a lot is not a strategy." - I agree. This is gambling. If I am the only one who is making this bet, I have a decent chance to win. If lots of people are making the same bet, my experience tells me the outcome is usually not so good.
I am not predicting Tesla's stock move for short term. I can't.
Sure it is a strategy.
Just like buying stock expecting it to go up is a strategy or shorting stock expecting it to go down is a strategy.
They are all lottery tickets, it just depends on what you time frame is.
racer26
Active Member
So you believe that the stock is going up by a factor of 20x in the next 10 years? Implies a 600B market cap. Possible, and within Elon's estimate of 1T, but I'm not sure it'll happen that quickly. Also, assuming a linear climb, that would imply a factor of 2x in one year or about 17% per month.
Most of the money in options I hold are in deep ITM LEAPS, as a surrogate for shares but with less cash tied up in them, at the expense of a slightly higher risk in terms of trying to get out of the way if the stock craters.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
