But you are predicting and gambling on the long term movement of the stock.
If you expect your $1 to grow for the next ten years, then you are also gambling. The only difference is your time frame.
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But you are predicting and gambling on the long term movement of the stock.
If you expect your $1 to grow for the next ten years, then you are also gambling. The only difference is your time frame.
stealthology
Member
We are now glued to the 20-day moving average (~$202.75); will be very interesting to see if we can close above it.
Sure, why not.
Yes, I concede. Buying a stock expecting it to go up without looking at the reasons the stock is being sold for X on X date is a strategy. Just not a very good one.
Most longs here think that TSLA will jump at some point, we just don't know when. If that's the base premise, Increasing one's exposure at critical points where that jump is more likely isn't unreasonable.
Personally I see no point in reading this forum as a long term investor. Much better use of time would be to concentrate on making money and buying up stock. If one is spending considerable time following the short term developments then gambling here and there is just additional fun.
So far I got murdered on SCTY LEAPs and made bank buying calls at $150-160 levels during panic. Fun times either way.
Jan '17 "leaps" are barely leapy at this point. Doesn't even cover the next ER. That is an awkward expiry for anyone thinking they are buying some safety. (disclosure, I have some J17's bought a long time ago, holding due to obstinacy).
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
If the stock jumps, even moderately you can make a substantial profit by buying short term calls.
Of course that's a riskier strategy than buying shares or (possibly) LEAPS, but stating it's not a strategy isn't accurate.
Any strategy is a gamble, some are riskier than others. We should know enough about the odds of the SP increasing to make bets on the ER that have reasonable odds of being profitable. The reason that quite a few people are jumping in is that they have good reasons to believe that they can make a profitable trade. If they are correct it's pretty easy to make well over 100% on short term options. Of course it's also easy to lose 100%. If the odds are in your favor it can be a reasonable gamble, with money you can afford to lose.
Right. Not all gambling has a negative expected value. (Not that the buying of short term call options needs to be encouraged on an online forum.)
stealthology
Member
You're right, it doesn't. But it does cover:
- Merger vote, and likely merger outcome
- 10/26 Q3 Earnings & all which it entails
- 10/28 SCTY/TSLA/TE new product unveilings
- 11/1 explanation of SCTY financials
- Potential updates on Model 3 progress at a crucial time period if they want to stay on schedule
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
Just a friendly reminder......the longer the base the higher the space. Wednesday can't get here soon enough. I will not be selling a rally......too close to Model 3 production (less than a year).
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
And to complete your list (not recommending J17!LEAPS) the Q4 delivery numbers which should be good.
The market could also recognize (not holding my breath) that the AP 2.0 HW update is a short term positive (increased profit margins and demand) with almost zero additional long term risk.
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
As I say while drifting a dry fly along a seam looking for trout....."reward...reward."
racer26
Active Member
I agree. My J17's are just because the time premium when I bought them was tiny, really, for how long the expiry was and how many positive catalysts were in the crosshairs. J18's are my stock surrogates, and I'll probably roll them to J19's in Nov/Dec.
stealthology
Member
So yesterday we close a smidgen above the big psychological number of 200. Today we close a smidgen above the 20-day MA. Just small peices of a huge puzzle.
racer26
Active Member
Details some probably won't notice: that's a log scale
Also: I think 3 era should be called 3/Y era, and it will probably be much shorter than the Roadster and S/X eras, as Semi, Minibus, Pickup, and Roadster 2.0 come barreling down the pipe behind it, along with Mobility, TE, Solar.
I actually find this forum very useful as a long term investor looking to accumulate.
I cannot prove this, but I've noticed the level of discord on the short term thread increases exponentially and seems to correlate with the price action. The nights that I come onto the forum and have to wade through pages of pages of "I'm ignoring you... you're totally wrong..." etc... are the times I've notice the sp is ripe for the picking. This goes back to the beginning of the year: I wasn't really following SP for TSLA, as I was looking to buy a house. But I suddenly noticed the level of discord go up significantly, then realized what a screaming buy TSLA was at the time...
So it's been pretty fruitful to follow this thread as a long term investor, accumulating...IMHO.
It seems like SCTY Jan 19' $20 are a stupid good deal right now, they equate to buying TSLA at about 225 after the merger. You could argue that TSLA might go lower than 225 between now and 2019, it is presently after all, but I would guess that there will be quite a few more days above 225 then below between now and 2019.
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