Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[davecolene0606]

It seemed like DaveT either still holding grudges with Elon's decision to buy SCTY as he probably got burned, or he turned short similar to mmd who was posting great stuff back in the day but for a while now every single post was negative In hope of causing the stock to go down. I hope I'm wrong but either ways its good to read their bearish stuff and identify if any of it might be true.

Well, I know DaveT for a while now... maybe, maybe.... he was thinking TSLA 3.0 and 300+ a share by now but he is NOT any of,the things you said here, pay attention, cuz ya might learn something from the old timers (insert mild sarcasm and irony here on the term "old timers")

Lighten up, Francis

Fire Away!

 

[sundaymorning]

You can't compare Tesla to today's low PE auto makers to predict Tesla's future value. GM used to be US's most profitable company and enjoyed more than 10% profit margin. It eventually doomed by technology stagnation and globalization. Tesla's long term value lies largely in how it transforms auto sector as a technology company. So it is great news "real competition" from other technology companies like Google and Apple has diminished significantly recently. Market didn't notice at all because wall street believes Tesla is no different from other automakers.

I think the competition will eventually catch up, pretty much in the way Samsung has been compared to Apple. But let's face it, there's a huge advantage of being "first mover" where you are years ahead... This means years of accelerating production and grabbing a huge market share.. people are tired with Beamers and Mercedes, they want to try something new.. so where will they go to buy a premium top of the line car?

As mentioned before, if big auto can drop $5 billion for a gigafactory and another $5 billion for an EV plant, then we can start talking about competition. Right now, I see Tesla almost finished with their GF, and not a single player in sight. Does that smell like serious competition to anyone? Does anybody feel a threat coming from big auto? Has any investors voiced their morbid concerns at shareholders meeting in the way Mercedes investors have shown concern about Tesla? The answer is no no and no... so why are we even having this arbitrary conversation? IMO, a waste of brain cells...

 

[BobSk]

Nothing any of us post here will affect the SP of TSLA either up or down.

Before assuming a long time forum member's position on being bear or bull short term or long term has changed I usually PM, text or email them for their thoughts.

There are many valuable posters (I am not one of them) that have turned to sharing their thoughts privately because of the reception their views receive here.

Maybe they should have 'thicker skin'? But the fact remains that several have left or post very infrequently because of the reception they get here .

That leaves us all less informed.

Just one person's opinion.

I agree, in general what we post can not change the market. But I feel some of the posts can cause less experienced investors to sell at the bottom or buy on margin at local top. Even for experienced investors, when they are under stress, they can be influenced by those posts that "sound reasonable" but are fundamentally wrong. I have been influenced in the past.

I respect every post, no matter it's from a bull or a bear. However, if I find someone frequently make posts that don't make sense, I add his name to my ignore list.

 

[Green Pete]

Is there sentiment that TSLA will move after the election is over? Is it likely that SCTY earnings scheduled the day after election is over strategic in that sense?

 

[Xpert]

@Xpert Geez, so now I'm either a bitter man or a malicious short. What if I'm just a level-headed bull in a forum full of naive optimism and herd thinking?

I could be naive but That's my impression of your posts since the merger announcement. I'd rather that I am wrong and you are a level headed bull, but in your latest post, comparing tesla to cut throat margin of GM and the likes, etc, couldnt be further from the truth.

 

[dmckinstry]

@Xpert Geez, so now I'm either a bitter man or a malicious short. What if I'm just a level-headed bull in a forum full of naive optimism and herd thinking?

I resemble that remark. Actually Dave, I'm still a long term bull, but have given up trying to anticipate anything in the short term.

 

[racer26]

I think the competition will eventually catch up, pretty much in the way Samsung has been compared to Apple. But let's face it, there's a huge advantage of being "first mover" where you are years ahead... This means years of accelerating production and grabbing a huge market share.. people are tired with Beamers and Mercedes, they want to try something new.. so where will they go to buy a premium top of the line car?

As mentioned before, if big auto can drop $5 billion for a gigafactory and another $5 billion for an EV plant, then we can start talking about competition. Right now, I see Tesla almost finished with their GF, and not a single player in sight. Does that smell like serious competition to anyone? Does anybody feel a threat coming from big auto? Has any investors voiced their morbid concerns at shareholders meeting in the way Mercedes investors have shown concern about Tesla? The answer is no no and no... so why are we even having this arbitrary conversation? IMO, a waste of brain cells...

Of course at least some members of the competition will start playing catchup eventually, the question is who, when, and will it be too little, too late?

I suspect that at least one of them will rise up to be the Samsung to Tesla's Apple. The strange part about that is that Samsung did not allow Apple to get a years-long lead in the market. Yes, the first-gen iPhone came out in 2007, and the first Galaxy came out in 2009, but iPhone didn't really reach popularity until they released the 3G or 3GS in 2009.

I don't believe that any of these companies will survive and be the Samsung in this equation unless they dive in with both feet and outright abandon their ICEV product lines in favour of BEVs. That's going to be a hard pill to swallow for 100 year old companies with shareholders to appease.

 

[Xpert]

Is there sentiment that TSLA will move after the election is over? Is it likely that SCTY earnings scheduled the day after election is over strategic in that sense?

I got more cautious today as TSLA was much weaker than the Nasdaq pop. HRC will most likely win but judging from todays stock action I'm not expecting a huge pop either. On the other hand, I think An unlikely Trump win might cause a big drop. Not sure if SCTY earning will do anything.

 

[MitchJi]

@Xpert Geez, so now I'm either a bitter man or a malicious short. What if I'm just a level-headed bull in a forum full of naive optimism and herd thinking?

I resemble resent that remark. Actually Dave, I'm still a long term bull, but have given up trying to anticipate anything in the short term.

If you meant resent I agree. I reported the first post claiming that he was condescending. But IMO that description fits that response.

But please continue to post, none of us are perfect.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

Seems like this is a significant unknown. If Panasonic can relatively cheaply update old 18650 lines now that they have the 2170 standard worked out for the gigafactory, that means Tesla could see cell efficiency/cost improvements go into model s/x in 1H 2017?

I don't expect S/X to transition to 2170s in the near future, there's a small power density (read performance) advantage to keeping the smaller form factor, it could serve as a differentiator vs. the M3 going forward.

 

[Green Pete]

I got more cautious today as TSLA was much weaker than the Nasdaq pop. HRC will most likely win but judging from todays stock action I'm not expecting a huge pop either. On the other hand, I think An unlikely Trump win might cause a big drop. Not sure if SCTY earning will do anything.

Im no expert but I saw some suggestion that a large number of shares were sold short shortly after the market opened depressing the stock price, not sure that can be kept up for 3 days with a HRC win and a good earnings report on SCTY.

 

[sub]

@Xpert Geez, so now I'm either a bitter man or a malicious short. What if I'm just a level-headed bull in a forum full of naive optimism and herd thinking?

There's the condescension I was referring to, but how dare anyone else respond to you with anything other than complete adoration right? It's a two way street.

Dave,
I agreed or disagreed with many of your long informative comments. No one is infallible, it is ultimately upon each of us to make our decisions. Listening to contrary opinions has actually helped me from making terrible mistakes. Having said that, I find the change in your tone unpalatable. It is not the content, but the tone.

For example, few days ago, you talked about you being level headed vs. some/most here religious. I find that condescending. Again you are repeating that you are level headed and the rest here have herd thinking.

While I value your feedback here highly, I do not find it any superior to mine or others. All our opinions made here are in good faith and is to help the community to make informed decisions on their own. Please do not insult our intelligence. Thank you.

Exactly the post I was referring to earlier.

 

[Subhuman]

My bet for the long term is that TSLA won't stop with acquiring SCTY, they'll likely own many more companies, adding extra legs to their mission. So the question is, who's next after scty?

Hyperloop One!

 

[Green Pete]

Hyperloop One!

Sun Edison has a nice price tag at this point. Hell, the market cap of Vivant, SunEdison, Sunpower and Sunrun is only a combined 2 billion. If the gigafactory can really produce 10 GW and the solar roof demand is really going to be so off the hook those companies could well tank and their installer base would be valuable in getting that 10GW installed.

 

[Roger t]

Of course at least some members of the competition will start playing catchup eventually, the question is who, when, and will it be too little, too late?

I suspect that at least one of them will rise up to be the Samsung to Tesla's Apple. The strange part about that is that Samsung did not allow Apple to get a years-long lead in the market. Yes, the first-gen iPhone came out in 2007, and the first Galaxy came out in 2009, but iPhone didn't really reach popularity until they released the 3G or 3GS in 2009.

I don't believe that any of these companies will survive and be the Samsung in this equation unless they dive in with both feet and outright abandon their ICEV product lines in favour of BEVs. That's going to be a hard pill to swallow for 100 year old companies with shareholders to appease.

The most optimistic analogy of Tesla is Apple without Android. It is a long shot, but that would justify Ron Bacon's 30x - 50x valuation.

 

[pGo]

Nothing any of us post here will affect the SP of TSLA either up or down.

Before assuming a long time forum member's position on being bear or bull short term or long term has changed I usually PM, text or email them for their thoughts.

There are many valuable posters (I am not one of them) that have turned to sharing their thoughts privately because of the reception their views receive here.

Maybe they should have 'thicker skin'? But the fact remains that several have left or post very infrequently because of the reception they get here .

That leaves us all less informed.

Just one person's opinion.

The reason for level headed thoughts on this forum is most bulls here have been way off predicting stock movement for the past two years. Accept that please. A lot of them have departed already losing tons and a lot don't consider already rich valuation to be the factor stock hasn't moved much.

There is too much noise as well where every slight move up gets rewarded with Tesla's genius and every move down is considered a short seller's move.

My take has been that I come here to learn valuable discussion rather than pump and pump story and unimaginable numbers. I wish more @DaveT, @techmaven and all number driven folks discuss more.. numbers which can benefit us all.

 

[vgrinshpun]

There was a 4.7MW solar farm with a 3MWh PowerPack based BES installed by Solar City in August on Norwich, CT dairy farm. The story was not picked up by national media until it made it's way into the New York Times article this Sunday.

The article mentions another 13MW/56MWh solar farm/BES project on the Hawaiian island of Kauai. The article has a very interesting statement:

Bob Rudd, vice president of development, energy storage and microgrids at SolarCity, declined to give specifics, but said he was in talks for a number of large installations, any one of which could double what the company had installed.

I am still marveling at the above quote from SolrCity VP of development, energy storage and microgrids, especiy since both Tesla and SolarCity have been so tight lipped about any TE developments. This does not strike me as a off-the-calf remark, especially because of the implied large scale. I am wondering if we can possibly hear some specifics on the Wednesday's SolarCity ER call.

In related news, according to ScottMadden, an Energy Consulting Firm, California Duck Curve growing faster than expected. According to the finding utility-scale solar is contributing more to lower minimum daily loads than distributed generation, highlighting a need for combining new solar projects with the BES as a means of alleviating the growing Duck Curve. This, along with the introduction of much improved and cheaper PowerPack 2, as well as imminent significant ramp in TE production at the GF, could provide a much needed incentive for Utilities getting on-board with large grid-tied BES.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Looking at the feedback for these posts:
DaveT's (Helpful x 3, Informative x 3, Like x 3, Funny x 1)
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1818449/

WarpedOne's (Love x 15, Like x 12, Dislike x 5, Informative x 1)
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/1818515/

It might appear that this board is full of zealots defending the church of musk, but WarpedOne's points were irrefutable. Back in 2015 SA was full of naysayers saying that the other manufacturers were operating in stealth mode and won't release a tesla-fighter until it was good and ready for sale. The only thing that came close was the bolt and they just entered production last week. Everyone else simply started announcing their plans to release something in 2019, defeating every claim about hidden tesla-fighting-ev project.

So we at least have the cars announced now. Where's the Tesla Energy competitors? Sonnenbatterie was the big one, and their latest product (announced in June) hadn't even been delivered yet, before TE osbourned it: Sonnen introduces new residential battery at up to 40% cost reduction.

To WarpedOne's point, "Show us the money" before factoring in upcoming competition. Yes, the ICE auto market is fiercely competitive, but the BEV market has barely started. The utility market is entrenched with incumbents, but the distributed generating market is nascent. We're watching the collapse of the feature-phone and film-camera market replay here. Let's see if Tesla becomes apple or canon (they lead in the consumer digital camera market only to be supplanted by smartphones)?

I'm hedging that they'll actually become like Apple (pre-dot-com), before Jobs learned to be less eccentric, full of promise but occasionally tripped over themselves in their execution. It took years for the competition to catch up, but only with Apple's help.

 

[dmckinstry]

If you meant resent I agree. I reported the first post claiming that he was condescending. But IMO that description fits that response.

But please continue to post, none of us are perfect.

I meant what I said. I didn't resent it. Of course saying resemble is meant as a joke.

 

[sundaymorning]

Of course at least some members of the competition will start playing catchup eventually, the question is who, when, and will it be too little, too late?

I suspect that at least one of them will rise up to be the Samsung to Tesla's Apple. The strange part about that is that Samsung did not allow Apple to get a years-long lead in the market. Yes, the first-gen iPhone came out in 2007, and the first Galaxy came out in 2009, but iPhone didn't really reach popularity until they released the 3G or 3GS in 2009.

I don't believe that any of these companies will survive and be the Samsung in this equation unless they dive in with both feet and outright abandon their ICEV product lines in favour of BEVs. That's going to be a hard pill to swallow for 100 year old companies with shareholders to appease.

I agree. If big auto decides to jump into the EV game it'll be with a very small and insignificant investment. Much in the way that BMW is trying the I3, Nissan Leaf, Chevy Volt. Their aim isn't to make the worlds best car, that card has already been dealt by Tesla (twice, in S&X), instead, they're trying to sneak through the back door with less than stellar EVs that only a fraction of the populous are willing to purchase due to lack of consumer choice. No matter how ugly or poor your design of a vehicle may be, there will always be buyers if the price is right. Buyers tend to have a budget and are willing to settle; but will consumers settle for the Bolt when the same dough can get you the 3? Hence, the advent of Model 3 is when the race, IMO will start to slowly heat up. It's going to be big auto's "oh *sugar*" moment as they watch their sales decline in a major way.

For any competing company to be a game changer, a market leader they'll have to design a producut fast, before the competition (Tesla) evolves into a powerhouse. Does anyone here remember "The Zune" by Microsoft? it was suppose to compete with Apple's MP3, the problem was that once Microsoft came out with a product to compete with Apple's MP3, Apple already was working on something else. Playing catch up is like picking up the crumbs, it's enough to get you by, but it doesn't essentially change the fact that your competitor is killing it.