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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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What size do you think this factory in Europe will be? How many GWh and how many cars? Also in what timeframe could this factory be built? They might be faster then with GF1. I expect them to build this factory in Germany, lots of talent, good logistics and most importantly it will be a huge statement and a pie in the face for the German OEMs.
 
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What size do you think this factory in Europe will be? How many GWh and how many cars? Also in what timeframe could this factory be built? They might be faster then with GF1. I expect them to build this factory in Germany, lots of talent, good logistics and most importantly it will be a huge statement and a pie in the face for the German OEMs.

I think it depends how much of the car needs to be built in the EU to be a EU car.
 
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I think it depends how much of the car needs to be built in the EU to be a EU car.
That likely wouldn't factor into it.

The whole point of the second factory would be to take Tesla beyond ~1 million cars per year. This requires a massive new factory.

I think a slightly conservative figure would be a factory capable of making 500k cars per year in the EU. So, maybe half the size of Freemont, plus a third the size of the Gigafactory 1 (for 50 GWh).

An identical factory could be built in Asia.
 
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That likely wouldn't factor into it.

The whole point of the second factory would be to take Tesla beyond ~1 million cars per year. This requires a massive new factory.

I think a slightly conservative figure would be a factory capable of making 500k cars per year in the EU. So, maybe half the size of Freemont, plus a third the size of the Gigafactory 1 (for 50 GWh).

An identical factory could be built in Asia.
and cost?... $5b?... $10b?
 
I don't think so, when you automated the sh***** out of your fabrics anyway why not monetize on it? Especially in the life sciences space with more and more complex stuff to manufacture like CAR-T cells, TCR cells, IPs cells and so on.

On their website Tesla wrote: "“As the machine that builds the machine, our factories are so important that we believe they will ultimately deserve an order of magnitude more attention in engineering than what they produce. At very high production volumes, the factory becomes more of a product than the product itself. “" An order of magnitude is a 10x increase.
Therefore i wouldn't assume that it is an easy or quick task to automate the sh*t out of the fabrics.
In my opinion the first task is to assign more and more people to the teams that work on some elements of Tesla’s automated manufacturing systems. This may ultimately lead to the discontinuation of working with other automotive clients, because Tesla needs the HR for themselves and therefore does not continue contracts or automative clients do not continue contracts because the best people no longer work with their projects and they have become a second priority. According to Teslas general strategy to control large portions of of the supply chain or at least have enough capability in-house to manufacture components if suppliers fall short i guess the next step is to bring even more elements in house or at least lying the foundations necessary to be less dependent on suppliers. Finally even when Tesla manages to build alien dreadnought 1.0 they will
1) still innovate a lot to stay ahead of the game
2) build further factories
3) have to maintain all those factories
So i guess in the short and midterm as many people as possible will be needed.
what you describe may be a possibility in the far distant future. (to work large scale and high priority with those clients)
until then i guess it might live on as a side project. i think much depends on Klaus Grohmann in this regard.
 
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The way Tesla builds its cars, I don't think 'made in' is going to be a problem.

It is for the local price of the model 3. Tesla will likely ramp manufacturing in Europe as opposed to taking many years to build out a complete plant including batteries. So of course they are looking at the minimum for a car to be considered EU manufactured.
 
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Probably something like that, yes. Over 3-6 years.
so between this... the Freemont buildup... scaling out charging stations... finishing the GF... etc.,... they'll have spent about a year's worth of revenue at anticipated TA 2019 outputs... with an additional $10b to $15b in spend on growth over the next 4 years... they'll either take on significant debt or dramatically dilute the stock... or both... and when they've expanded TA to 1m cars/year in 2021... they'll have revs half of BMW today... and a market cap of what?... do you think they'll be delivering 1m cars without a dealership network?... scaling out their service centers to meet 1m/yr demand?

diluted stock at half the rev of BMW means... there's very little upside for this stock unless TE takes off... which according to headlines today there's talks of 60MWh of business... which is nothing.

this is what is meant when people say: "the future success of Tesla is already priced into TSLA's valuation"
 
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