I think I know who will be the omega poster to this thread and what information the post will contain. Here's a teaser word: "chop."
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racer26
Active Member
I could believe the earlier poster's suggestion that 1000 cars is what it took to make the quarter profitable.
Alternately, I could believe that Tesla really does just want to try it out on 1000 cars before they drop it on the whole fleet, and the timing of it happening today is more to say that we did get AP2.0 out before the end of the year, and has nothing to do with manipulating the financials, because we've sold so many cars and TE products it literally doesn't matter.
They didn't have 5500 'on a truck' unless you mean that as a figure of speech. Plenty were on boats, sitting in train depots, on the Tilburg line, etc...
mmd
Active Member
Also Spiegel
My own guess is under 20k. IF it is 18k-20k, will the SP go down? For Q1 and Q2 misses, nothing much happened to SP.IEV number is an estimate though. We have to wait for the official number. A few thousand cars can make a big difference.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
If they can only recognize revenue when the SW feature is actually released, then would the FSD portion of revenue be dependent on government allowing FSD deployment? So extrapolating out to M3, we could potentially have 400K cars *$3K = $1.2B waiting on the government? That seems like a huge uncertainty...
Also Spiegel
IEV number is an estimate though. We have to wait for the official number. A few thousand cars can make a big difference.
I'm holding Spiegel for his earlier prediction:
And how many will be on the truck/ship/train as of 12:01 tonight? There will always be some in transit and the higher they produce and transport the more there will be in transit.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
That's not what I was asking. I was only asking how others arrived at the conclusion that Tesla only delivered 7K cars in Oct/Nov, when we know they had 5500 en-route at the end of Q3.
Others have speculated that Tesla has delivered 11.4K cars in Dec based on IEV's estimate of 7K MS delivery world-wide in Dec. I have no idea if IEV's Dec estimate may include cars that are still in transit or not, and it is completely irrelevant to what I was asking.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I can see how this 67K delivery could have happened. Tesla delivered 55K in Q1-Q3 (IIRC), with 5.5K en-route at the end of Q3, so total 60K. Then in Sep Space-X rocket blew up, and Elon put everyone (what do you mean everyone? EVERYONE!) on the Space-X sabotage-hunt, and Tesla didn't deliver anything In Oct/Nov. Then in Dec they realized "holy *sugar* we promised this target thingy", and delivered 7K MS as IEV estimated, so total of 67K cars. They gave up on the MX since Consumer Report said it's crap.
That's not how companies work. He might have two jobs but most tesla and spaced employees don't. Musk is the frontman but I do hope he has people that can run things without him day to day. Not like he's personally coding EAP or building cars.
Happy 2017 from Europe guys! Let's celebrate SP @ 300+ same time & place next year!
Sounds good. Holding 1000 shares at $180 till they reach $2000 each. Thinking 10 years tops
dc_h
Active Member
Deliveries are really hard to figure this quarter. Bonaire and some bears are tracking ~18,000 and optimists are around 27,000. Looking at model S tracking it seems that October orders didn't begin deliveries in the USA until mid November, leaving a long lag from Q3 to initial Q4 deliveries. Where and when were the 5000 in transit cars go? Did they go to inventory and no new deliveries go out after October without AP 2?
I'm not really understanding the numbers at this point. Seems like vin assignments and production tracks to 26,500 or more, but deliveries are tracking around 20,000 without huge china and USA December.
Thinking Friday weekly puts would have been good insurance and sell them Tuesday before GF reveal part deux. I think guidance for 2017 is going to be interesting. Q1 is likely to be ~30,000 if Q4 misses at all.
I'm not really understanding the numbers at this point. Seems like vin assignments and production tracks to 26,500 or more, but deliveries are tracking around 20,000 without huge china and USA December.
Thinking Friday weekly puts would have been good insurance and sell them Tuesday before GF reveal part deux. I think guidance for 2017 is going to be interesting. Q1 is likely to be ~30,000 if Q4 misses at all.
Krugerrand
Meow
That was a joke. But it has been said before that the companies help each other. Certainly SpaceX employees weren't delivering cars, nor Tesla employees fueling rockets.....hmmm....maybe....that would explain....nah. Yeah, it was a joke.
I will sell all shares at $999 and sleep well not collecting the dividend!
Krugerrand
Meow
Happy New Year to all. Hope you all have a happy and healthy 2017....way more important than the SP of TSLA!
Edit: I will be happier with a higher TSLA SP
Edit: I will be happier with a higher TSLA SP
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