Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[MitchJi]

Yeah, I don't have a solid grasp of exactly what features are most problematic, but anything that can get in the way of Tesla doubling production every 12 months needs to be very carefully considered.

Specifically regarding a P version, I wonder if the distinction between performance and nonperformance is really worth making. Does every model Tesla make need to treat performane as an option? Or can some models be higher performance than others? For example, the new Roadster, would in make sense to have a nonperformance version Roadster? Or is it simply that all Roadster are by definition high performance? Just thinking out loud.

I think we can be sure that they will at least offer either insane mode or ludicrous mode. The switch and fuse required for ludicrous probably cost under $200 extra and are part of the million mile drive line. I think the HW will be on every Tesla sold.

I think the question we need to ask is why wouldn't they offer an $5-$10k option that costs them almost nothing additional to provide (only requires SW)?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

There will be a truly huge number of reservations. I'm predicting 200,000 in the first 24 hours. Remember, Tesla is taking reservations from the global market. 1 Million reservations before the first delivery is highly likely. They will use this money to expand production capacity and may hit 500,000/year before 2020.

TSLA will be over 250 by the end of April.

Wow, 200K in 24 hours. Because it's global?
It must be nice to live where you do, because for majority of the world, $35K is one expensive car. Outside of NA and West Europe, and somewhat China, most cars are cheap compacts and subcompacts.

Having said that, $35K is still much larger segment than $70K+, so I hope you're substantially right.
I believe even 25K-50K reservations in few days will move market significantly. De-risking demand for Model 3 is going to be huge lever. Proof it's hit in making even more so.

 

[FredTMC]

Wow, 200K in 24 hours. Because it's global?
It must be nice to live where you do, because for majority of the world, $35K is one expensive car. Outside of NA and West Europe, and somewhat China, most cars are cheap compacts and subcompacts.

Having said that, $35K is still much larger segment than $70K+, so I hope you're substantially right.
I believe even 25K-50K reservations in few days will move market significantly. De-risking demand for Model 3 is going to be huge lever. Proof it's hit in making even more so.

Not sure how quickly it'll get to hundreds of thousands of reservations but it will.

MX got to > 25k reservations. Model 3 will sell 10x over MS/MX. Just like BMW 3-Series is 10x over 7-series

 

[larmor]

Wow, 200K in 24 hours. Because it's global?
It must be nice to live where you do, because for majority of the world, $35K is one expensive car. Outside of NA and West Europe, and somewhat China, most cars are cheap compacts and subcompacts.

Having said that, $35K is still much larger segment than $70K+, so I hope you're substantially right.
I believe even 25K-50K reservations in few days will move market significantly. De-risking demand for Model 3 is going to be huge lever. Proof it's hit in making even more so.

May be analyze the market of consumers purchasing large ticket items or tech items that they can't buy outright, eg, how many people have an iphone, but wouldn't buy it out right. This might be a gauge for M3 demand, since TM has created a pseudo apple product following...

 

[electracity]

Wow, 200K in 24 hours. Because it's global?
.

Divide 200K by the number of stores.

- - - Updated - - -

Not sure how quickly it'll get to hundreds of thousands of reservations but it will.

MX got to > 25k reservations. Model 3 will sell 10x over MS/MX. Just like BMW 3-Series is 10x over 7-series

I think this is right, but it will take some time. In addition to the general public. Many owners and stockholders will take a reservation even if they are not sure what they will do with it. So will employees in Musk's companies.

 

[tinm]

We're all assuming the Model 3 isn't ugly or a weirdmobile, despite Elon's promises. I mean, if the curtain rises and a rotating platform emerges with an i3 clone slowly going 'round on a turntable, with Elon in his satin jacket speading his arms doing his best Preston Tucker imitation, no amount of thumping dance music or metallic shine or multi-color laser light combinations may be sufficient to stop the gasps and jaw-drops and the sound of $1000 checks all being put back in pockets, wallets, and purses....

But nah, that won't happen. I hope.

 

[ClownMouth]

You'd have to think that if Google or anyone else was thinking of taking a 10% stake in Tesla the time to do it would be before the Model 3 unveil. For the last year or so I thought a potential partner would emerge, trying to take a minority stake or getting access to the Supercharger network. Maybe everyone really is still skeptical, waiting to see what Model 3 reservations look like.

 

[Nomad]

Divide 200K by the number of stores.

...

How many stores and galleries are there?

 

[jesselivenomore]

If you were short TSLA, you had ample time to get out and make tons. More will jump on, but the big players have learned their lesson from 2013 and won't get too deep.

Short term traders who shorted through 180 may be covering, but the 27M shares short the past 2 years are absolutely not covering when they have patiently waited for so long and their trade is now finally starting to work. There is no way they are covering after TSLA just missed earnings by almost $1.00 and all the good news is promises in the future. That is like hoping longs sell when TSLA first broke above 50 in 2013 after waiting for 2 years. No, when you have such conviction for so long, and the market is finally vindicating your views, that is not the time you bail - it's when you hunker down. That goes both ways, for longs and shorts.

The only way for TSLA to get those shorts to cover, and to get their share price up, is to start delivering on those rosy projections. Which is fair, and the way it should be.

 

[FredTMC]

We're all assuming the Model 3 isn't ugly or a weirdmobile, despite Elon's promises. I mean, if the curtain rises and a rotating platform emerges with an i3 clone slowly going 'round on a turntable, with Elon in his satin jacket speading his arms doing his best Preston Tucker imitation, no amount of thumping dance music or metallic shine or multi-color laser light combinations may be sufficient to stop the gasps and jaw-drops and the sound of $1000 checks all being put back in pockets, wallets, and purses....

But nah, that won't happen. I hope.

It'll be amazing looking. 100%.

At the very worst it'll look like a smaller version of Model S. I've see those photoshop renderings people post of a smaller MS. Looks great.

I doubt Elon and Franz will do anything too "futuristic" (weird) because they want Model 3 to have tremendous appeal

when you see Model 3, you immediate impression needs to be "wow, that's got great lines"

 

[aznt1217]

It'll be amazing looking. 100%.

At the very worst it'll look like a smaller version of Model S. I've see those photoshop renderings people post of a smaller MS. Looks great.

I doubt Elon and Franz will do anything too "futuristic" (weird) because they want Model 3 to have tremendous appeal

when you see Model 3, you immediate impression needs to be "wow, that's got great lines"

I think Model 3 ASP is going to end up being somehting like $50K. Only because most people who buy a 3 series or something in that class usually end up there when loaded with options. It's been stated publicly that the Model 3 will have less "bells and whistles then Model S."

To me this translates to a car that is

20% Smaller
Less Power to weight ratio (think the existing D front motor driving the rear/front/awd)
A 0-60 time of about 6 seconds
A screen that is half the size of the Model S
Autopilot hardware (that is optional -- using only the existing suite, while Model S will have a more sophisticated system)
Alcantara rooftop optional
Navigation that relies on your phone instead of something built in (hence Elon's phone mirroring comment)

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Clearly speculation on my end but here is a thought. Maybe improvements by end of 2017 will allow a base 75kwh batt and the base on the S battery to be 80 or 85 by then.

Base $35K with 50KWh will likely have around 215miles (I did some guestimate calculations)
$40K buys you 60KWh and around 260 miles
$50K buys you 70KWh with AWD and maybe $60K for Performance, or perhaps there is only one 70KWh and it's both P with AWD at around $55K price to better compete with BMW 335i. This is first model to be built exclusively for few months.

One year later, there is a BMW M3 competitor with whatever current Model S P90D drivetrain is (prob. next generation motors), and it's $75K or $80K; prob smaller battery than top dog in S bc of weight; hello model, small quantity, you have to wait 6-12 months to get it, its' very exclusive, will beat any BMW M3 into pulp from stoplight

Musk wants to push sustainable transportation, but he has business to run. Leaving money on the table isn't how you get there, so no chance $35K model will be volume seller. That will be middle brother (just slightly more appealing at reasonable price), as with everyone else in the industry. BTW, (regular) people are programmed to not to want to buy cheapest (or most expensive) variant. This audience in this forum isn't typical though, which is reason you may feel differently.

All battery numbers may shift a bit up, by amount that Model S improves its batteries, by that time, for the same price

 

[FredTMC]

I think Model 3 ASP is going to end up being somehting like $50K. Only because most people who buy a 3 series or something in that class usually end up there when loaded with options. It's been stated publicly that the Model 3 will have less "bells and whistles then Model S."

To me this translates to a car that is

20% Smaller
Less Power to weight ratio (think the existing D front motor driving the rear/front/awd)
A 0-60 time of about 6 seconds
A screen that is half the size of the Model S
Autopilot hardware (that is optional -- using only the existing suite, while Model S will have a more sophisticated system)
Alcantara rooftop optional
Navigation that relies on your phone instead of something built in (hence Elon's phone mirroring comment)

Yep. ASP around $50K in the long run yes. Like in 2019 or 2020

for 2018, Model 3 will completely sold-out and the only versions they'll produce are the high-end versions (nicely equipped)

 

[aznt1217]

Interesting trading action thus far. The stock really can't decide what to do. Probably just need more Model X's on the road.

I wonder what it's going to take to get Tesla's trajectory back

 

[FredTMC]

TSLA just following OIL direction today. But definitely lagging. Not surprising with 3-day weekend

 

[AudubonB]

It'll be amazing looking. 100%.

That's right!
It'll trump all other contenders, no beating around the bush about it. All other cars on dealers' lots....you can go cruzin' up and down the Benz-Bimmer-Lambo dealerships - or, why not - what they put out at Tonka - sich a car ye'll ne'er agin see
Even electrical competitors can rub ions together to their beating batteries' content - won't hold a candle.




(99 TeslaPoints to the first who....well, either you know why or you'll have to wait and find out.....)

 

[The Blue Owl]

That's right!
It'll trump all other contenders, no beating around the bush about it. All other cars on dealers' lots....you can go cruzin' up and down the Benz-Bimmer-Lambo dealerships - or, why not - what they put out at Tonka - sich a car ye'll ne'er agin see
Even electrical competitors can rub ions together to their beating batteries' content - won't hold a candle.




(99 TeslaPoints to the first who....well, either you know why or you'll have to wait and find out.....)

Yeah, but how will it do with the evangelicals?

It'll probably do great, because the other EVs are so low energy!

 

[techmaven]

We're following nasdaq + oil. However, if the macro negative sentiment still holds and combined with a low max pain, it "should" drop today. So if we end up going up, that's actually very positive.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

For me the big thing was the cash flow and that they don't need to do equity raise. They might do it anyway but not at these SP levels. It was interesting anyway when the results was released and it all seemed to me to be way better than I hoped for. And then you start to read the general news and some other message boards etc. and people thought it was bad and the bear case is still intact for them. Never been so sure about being right and they wrong, it feels like a big information gap and it is almost surreal.

+1000

What we have now is basically the Model 3 ramp not being dependent on equity raise and not being dependent on GF. This almost removes all risk to the 500k vehicles in 2020. The only thing they need to do to get there is put some lines in Fremont, something which they managed to do 4 years ago as a much smaller and less experienced company. And also have demand for 500k.
.

Big relief is they don't need money for 2016. They will take it, if things improve, but they don't need it.
However, to prep for end of '17 Model 3 launch, they will need capital investments and likely need to tap money somewhere. Even if public markets are in disarray, if they execute decent in 2016, they have ok options in 2017: VCs that are pulling from private unicorns, strategic partnerships with similarly minded people (GOOGL etc...), loans from banks (proven there is demand).

They hit 80K this year and demand doesn't fall of the cliff, they'll get money they need next year at ok terms. If you're shareholder, nothing to see here, you can continue hibernating. Option holders, pls. continue being on guard

 

[tlo]

To me this translates to a car that is

20% Smaller
Less Power to weight ratio (think the existing D front motor driving the rear/front/awd)
A 0-60 time of about 6 seconds
A screen that is half the size of the Model S
Autopilot hardware (that is optional -- using only the existing suite, while Model S will have a more sophisticated system)
Alcantara rooftop optional
Navigation that relies on your phone instead of something built in (hence Elon's phone mirroring comment)

Agree, except for the bolded.

I bet the screen will be same size as the Model S/X. A new screen size requires engineering cost. It will also take away one of the distinguishing features of a Tesla. If Amazon can sell a tablet for $40, Tesla can put the 17" screen in a $35K car.

Also doesn't make much sense to exclude navigation.