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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Papafox

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Supporting Member
Jan 12, 2013
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For this last hour of trading on a Friday, expect the market makers to try bringing TSLA down to easiest available multiple of 2.5. I suspect they'll try to hold 150 and will try for 147.50 if volume is low enough. On the other hand, some buyers may be trying to pick up shares and some of the smarter shorts trying to cover prior to three-day weekend. A positive tweet by Elon over the weekend could skew things in a more bullish direction, in the short term. The tug-of-war is on.
 

uselesslogin

Active Member
Supporting Member
Jun 13, 2013
1,832
3,804
Omaha, NE
Well... many people who are against Tesla doesn't think there would be an level except 6 feet under, so there's that. lol

Literally with this drop, 2 years of gains were wiped out for long term shareholders like myself. The only time we switch to short term orientation is if we see the opportunity for accumulation (ex tax payments). I did this in November 2013. I wish I could've done it this time around.
What kills me though is this table of closing prices starting with the IPO day and then the final day of each year:

06/29/2010 $23.89
12/31/2010 $26.63
12/30/2011 $28.56
12/31/2012 $33.87
12/31/2013 $150.43
12/31/2014 $222.41
12/31/2015 $240.01

I think many of us feel that this trend will continue for 2016 although obviously who knows. But at least for the first 6 years it looks like the easiest stock in the world to own. Every year it is simply worth more. Yet we all know it is nowhere near as tame as this table implies.
 
Buddyroe,

I know you were watching the supercharger build out closely. I think Tesla is setting up for a good first quarter followed up by huge reservation numbers for Model 3 first week of April. It looks like Tesla dumped anything that didn't have long term value into expense in Q4 (if you call something obsolete you expense it rather than continue to depreciate it over time). So they take a one time hit on earnings, but set the stage for better numbers in 2016.

Jason is also timing expenditures to match revenue, so we probably won't see more Supercharger build out until Model X is shipping in volume. Cash flow is king, and I'm sure Tesla doesn't want their cash balance to go down or ABL line to go up until after Q1 results are announced. In fact they probably want cash balance to go up and ABL to go down to reinforce the idea that they won't need to tap additional capital this year. They want good numbers for Q1 and I think they will get them.

You wanted them to show you the steak, well the supercharger slow down means they understand this and will show the steak this quarter.

I guess you can't do anything about the bad decisions made in the past, all you can do is try to rectify it going forward. I just wish it wasn't at the expense of the supercharger network. But, reading your post made me think that this new strategy is the result of the New CFO coming in and saying, "we've got to fix this." I think he realizes that the cash burn simply couldn't be maintained. I do like this new direction. It will slow down the rapid growth that we all want to see, but at the same time, may prevent catastrophic consequences of the cash-burn needed to fund that growth. Maybe having a more conservative voice at the top will be able to balance Elon's wild abandon in the pursuit of his dreams.

Like anything else, we'll have to "wait and see." There might be some pain along the way, but hopefully, it will turn out how we all want it to.
 

jhm

Well-Known Member
May 23, 2014
10,047
38,897
Atlanta, GA
Very interesting idea. It would mean the CPO margins in some cases could get really good. For this to work you of course only enable it to go in one direction, so the used car buyer can only enable features and add a badge, and not the other way around.

Actually I think it can go both ways. We are talking about the same physical costs. So it you sell initially with a premium option turned on for say $10k. Then when you trade in, this gets depreciated down to say $4k. So Tesla nets $6k for having turned on that feature for the first owner. It doesn't really matter is that feature is turned off for the second owner, or turned on for $2k or for $8k. The pricing of that option in the CPO is determined the the price that generates the maximum revenue, i.e., it optimized the option price times the probability of uptake at that price.

So all kinds of soft features can work like this, autopilot, Supercharger access, and more. What about features that depend on expensive physical equipment? Let's take battery pack size. Certainly used battery packs can be switched in the CPO. So this does allow for some degree of reconfigurability. But for new cars there may be a big advantage to configuring in market.

For example, Tesla ships bodies, motors and batteries separately to Tilburg for assembly in the EU. It could be advantageous to simply configure cars in Tilburg, rather custom building each one in Fremont. Thus, European customers can special order their dream car and within weeks it could be assembled and full configured at Tilburg. There is no need for these customers to wait for their car to be shipped to Europe because Tilburg has all the components in inventory from which to custom configure the car. European wait times would come down substantially, which would boost demand and customer satisfaction. It may even reduce inventory costs. This model of in market final assembly and configuration could be replicated to different regional and national markets. It also opens up more options for distributed manufacturing. For example, a European Gigafactory could easily supply regional battery packs.

But how much of this could get pushed out to the local stores. Suppose you do final assembly in Tilburg, but there are a buck of features that can be configured at you local store, say Copenhagen. So predictive analytics can be used to build out preconfigured stock. When the customer places an order, a suitable preconfigured car is shipped immediately to the Copenhagen store. The customer takes delivery of their custom configured car within weeks of placing their order.

Tesla could stand to do a lot of innovation in rapidly delivering customized products. How else can they scale to millions of cars per year?
 

ggies07

Active Member
Nov 8, 2012
4,113
9,759
DFW
You made my point, it's a badging issue. Build one physical version of the Model 3 for streamlined manufacturing. Then use software to turn on and off basic features, and make the customer pay for badging. CPO and existing cars can easily be reconfigured and rebadged to extract the most cash from the customer's ego. Brilliant.
I really like this idea. It would make the people like myself going for the base model to get it faster while Tesla still gets their higher optioned cars first.
 

Papafox

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Jan 12, 2013
5,348
72,432
Looks like they may run it to $152.50. Maybe. That or $150. Two min warning...

No apparent market maker action in last hour, but perhaps they were trying and we couldn't see effect. More likely, the heavier volume today discouraged putting much effort into affecting TSLA price prior to close. Any strong trends in the first half hour of after hours trading might give a glimpse of behind-the-scenes effort for the final hour, but I suspect not much took place.
 
Well,

I was sceptic, and I am sceptic to this point.
Elon sounded completely erratic this time except as pointed out some engineering and GF questions.
But completely lacking the powerful competitive sub tone usually present.
Adam Jonas a complete letdown.Almost as if he avoided the critical questions.
Maybe enough shorts for now and they can start the pump again.

and this statement worried me really:
No but the frank exchange below indicates to me that Elon feels they will be ramping shortly.

<Q - Mike Ramsey>: Do you feel like the company is on the right track, and that you're past
some of your hiccups?
<A - Elon Reeve Musk>: Yeah. I feel very good about things right now. I mean, it was – the last several months have
been quite excruciating, I'd say. I mean, many late nights and weekends. But I think we're through the worst of it at this
point.​

The last MONTHS must have been the sheer horror.
As I said either this has been going on since 2012 (!) or completely slept over/procastrinated until the Hoerbiger supplier deal fell completely apart mid 2015.
Then it has been going on now for min. 2 years.
Both variants are catastrophic, and the carful ductus of EM still show that they´re still not completely out of the water.
"…through the the worst.." I´m mean that sounds like they´ve been at the edge.His body language in France was self explanatory too.

Something must have gone catastrophically wrong.One day they´ll open up about it.
 
Last edited:

FredTMC

Model S VIN #4925
Dec 26, 2012
3,491
3,792
Orange County CA
No apparent market maker action in last hour, but perhaps they were trying and we couldn't see effect. More likely, the heavier volume today discouraged putting much effort into affecting TSLA price prior to close. Any strong trends in the first half hour of after hours trading might give a glimpse of behind-the-scenes effort for the final hour, but I suspect not much took place.

Yep. It's also only weeklies today, not monthly. That's next week
 

AudubonB

One can NOT induce accuracy with precision!
Moderator
Mar 24, 2013
9,105
39,888
So, in order to distract you from a weekend of glumliness, here you all are again:

[quote FredTMC]It'll be amazing looking. 100%[/quote]
That's right!
It'll trump all other contenders, no beating around the bush about it. All other cars on dealers' lots....you can go cruzin' up and down the Benz-Bimmer-Lambo dealerships - or, why not - what they put out at Tonka - sich a car ye'll ne'er agin see
Even electrical competitors can rub ions together to their beating batteries' content - won't hold a candle.




(99 TeslaPoints to the first who....well, either you know why or you'll have to wait and find out.....)


And now, slightly augmented, here we are:

It'll trump all other contenders, no beating around the bush about it. All other cars on dealers' lots....you can go cruzin' up and down the Benz-Bimmer-Lambo dealerships - or, why not - what they put out at Tonka - sich a car ye'll ne'er agin see
Even electrical competitors can rub ions together to their beating batteries' content - won't hold a candle.

There you are, folks. Enjoy your weekend.
 

The Blue Owl

Endangerous Herbivore
Feb 27, 2014
1,555
5,146
Toronto, ON
So, in order to distract you from a weekend of glumliness, here you all are again:

<quote FredTMC>It'll be amazing looking. 100%</QUOTE>



And now, slightly augmented, here we are:

It'll trump all other contenders, no beating around the bush about it. All other cars on dealers' lots....you can go cruzin' up and down the Benz-Bimmer-Lambo dealerships - or, why not - what they put out at Tonka - sich a car ye'll ne'er agin see
Even electrical competitors can rub ions together to their beating batteries' content - won't hold a candle.

There you are, folks. Enjoy your weekend.
Aww, come on. I didn't get all of it, but I did get Trump and Bush! I deserve at least a few points :)

Nicely done, by the way.
 
AudubonB;1368956 It'll [B said:
trump[/B] all other contenders, no beating around the bush about it. All other cars on dealers' lots....you can go cruzin' up and down the Benz-Bimmer-Lambo dealerships - or, why not - what they put out at Tonka - sich a car ye'll ne'er agin see
Even electrical competitors can rub ions together to their beating batteries' content - won't hold a candle.

There you are, folks. Enjoy your weekend.

Ooooh, I think one or two are names of candidates at some local election in US.
But I'm as interested in USA locals as is an average American interested in Rwanda.
 
c3si284L_reasonably_small.jpg
Kyndell Nunley– ‏@KyndellNews3LV

yH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAANAAwAAAILjI py 0Po5y0ngIAOw==



Hundreds bussed in by SolarCity for rally.Will PUC grandfather in existing customers under old solar rules? @News3LV







I hope Elon is at this rally? Why isn't he Tweeting about this?




10:29 AM - 12 Feb 2016 from Nevada, USA
5 RETWEETS5 LIKES
 

The Blue Owl

Endangerous Herbivore
Feb 27, 2014
1,555
5,146
Toronto, ON
Ooooh, I think one or two are names of candidates at some local election in US.
But I'm as interested in USA locals as is an average American interested in Rwanda.

OTOH, elections in Rwanda won't ever impact the market as much as the U.S. elections will, so it pays to follow. They can also be a great source of entertainment, if you're into that kind of thing (although, it might get less entertaining if they end up electing certain people).
 

Shorts are toast. When Countrywide Mortgage was headed towards bankruptcy, Anthony Mozillo (CEO) was selling off his shares at the maximum rate he could without having to file an SEC disclosure and alert the media.

If the people closest to the top are buying as much as possible, how can shorts seriously believe the company is going under soon?
 
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