Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[MartinAustin]

While the first f**e around September 2013 was undoubtedly a scary moment as we had no idea what was going on or what the future would hold, we've now been through so many of these scares that we know by now to hold off on pronouncing judgement on the situation, from the comfort of our home armchairs, and armed only with a few internet reports, until actual people have been able to investigate on-scene (and particularly, Tesla staff).

What seems clear is that this would be the first f**e of its type, and with 100,000 cars on the road and Supercharging having been around for nearly 3.5 years, we know that this type of thing does not normally happen. I have not just become scared that my car might catch f**e the next time I take it to the Supercharger!

That all said, I am in no doubt that this is perfect material (by itself) for the market to see a temporary fall in TSLA. If you have cash or can raise cash... buy TSLA As someone said above, perhaps the 2015 total delivery figures will be the bigger news and this will submerge? Who can say.

 

[Stretch2727]

Could very well be a sad panda in deed.
Could be a crazy short spending some money for a headline as well.
Only time will tell.
Very curious about how this pans out.

(BTW happy new year to everyone.)

Poor timing if it is a crazy short.

Hopefully by Monday there will have been some preliminary investigation.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Poor timing if it is a crazy short.

Hopefully by Monday there will have been some preliminary investigation.

Time to remember there are 152,000 car fires a year IN USA. Tesla not immune to car fires. Amazing record so far

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Poor timing if it is a crazy short.

Hopefully by Monday there will have been some preliminary investigation.

Could be great timing as well as this could get some media coverage and could spread over the weekend or pop up in the media monday morning.

Compared to the money some people put in TSLA the price tag of a used Model S could be a minor issue.

I am not assuming this is the case, I am patiently waiting for the facts and while waiting for the facts everything is still possible.

More relevant for investing in TSLA short term:
Is anybody thinking about a small short term put position to protect a bullish position in shares and mid to long term calls?
Currently I am thinking about some puts for next week that I would get rid of in case we see a drop early next week or in case SP is staying flat and not reacting much on this event.
Any advise greatly appreciated!

 

[Lump]

Norwegian Car-B-Q: Tesla Model S Bursts Into Flames, Burns To A Crisp While Charging | Zero Hedge

Link to 2 new pictures...
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...geroot/2015/12/Tesla bursts into flames 2.jpg
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...eroot/2015/12/Tesla bursts into flames 3.jpeg

 

[FredTMC]

On Zerohedge.com now.

View attachment 106124

Norwegian Car-B-Q: Tesla Model S Bursts Into Flames, Burns To A Crisp While Charging | Zero Hedge

Link to 2 new pictures...
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...geroot/2015/12/Tesla bursts into flames 2.jpg
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...eroot/2015/12/Tesla bursts into flames 3.jpeg

Thats certainly a negative inflammatory piece of garbage article. I'm sorry I clicked on it

 

[ev-enthusiast]

View attachment 106124

Norwegian Car-B-Q: Tesla Model S Bursts Into Flames, Burns To A Crisp While Charging | Zero Hedge

Link to 2 new pictures...
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...geroot/2015/12/Tesla bursts into flames 2.jpg
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...eroot/2015/12/Tesla bursts into flames 3.jpeg

Lump, thank's for the links.

While English is not my mother tongue I clearly get that articles like these are neither written in a neutral nor an objective way.
Articles like these are not journalism in my opinion, they are pure propaganda and are written with an higher aim in mind.
Very sad to read articles like this. Always looking for good journalism and balanced articles. And btw I think we do not need bullish articles that lack neutrality and objectivity in a comparable way.

 

[SBenson]

Curious, what are the stats on ICE cars burning down when filling up gas?

 

[hockeythug]

Lump, thank's for the links.

While English is not my mother tongue I clearly get that articles like these are neither written in a neutral nor an objective way.
Articles like these are not journalism in my opinion, they are pure propaganda and are written with an higher aim in mind.
Very sad to read articles like this. Always looking for good journalism and balanced articles. And btw I think we do not need bullish articles that lack neutrality and objectivity in a comparable way.

Zero Hedge is basically a site where all the shorts hang out. Lots of economy is doomed articles, etc. As you could expect, they are very bearish on Tesla.

 

[mmccord]

Curious, what are the stats on ICE cars burning down when filling up gas?

I can't speak to that question specifically, but according to Vehicle fire trends and patterns

There are, on average, 90 vehicle fires per billion miles driven. We know there are over 1 billion miles on the model S fleet because Tesla made that announcement in 2015. I haven't heard of more than ten fires at this point, so it seems the model S is ten times less likely to catch fire than an ICE vehicle.

 

[MikeC]

Anyone remember the "Toronto garage fire" a couple years back? It wasn't exactly the same as this, but there were similar concerns here and nothing ever came of it.

 

[Lessmog]

Curious, what are the stats on ICE cars burning down when filling up gas?

IDK, but off the top of my head, on the average more than one car burns every five minutes, in the US alone.

What I'd like to know is, is Tesla on top of this situation? For example, how does it affect all the vacationers planning to supercharge in that area? Does the NAV indicate that this supercharger is out of service?

That should be pretty easy to push out to all the fleet OTA, and it could be crucial information for many travellers!

 

[SBenson]

Interesting google search to put things in perspective.

Google Search "gas station car fire" and go to Images section

https://www.google.com/search?q=gas...ved=0ahUKEwiOp_WxpInKAhUHYiYKHVM8CHYQ_AUICSgE

- - - Updated - - -

Or try "Petrol station car fire"

or simply "gas car fire"

- - - Updated - - -

Somehow media tries to make it look like cars and fire are an extraordinary thing that only seems to happen to Tesla.

If TSLA crashes monday morning, I am buying some more!

- - - Updated - - -

Even if this is entirely SuperCharger's fault or Model S fault or whatever else where Tesla deserves the entire blame, this is not end of the world. Tesla will get to the bottom of this and will fix it, sooner or later. It's just a matter of time. Even if your holding period is mere 1 year, this incident will wash away. So any crash in TSLA is a great buying opportunity is my view.

 

[FredTMC]

Anyone remember the "Toronto garage fire" a couple years back? It wasn't exactly the same as this, but there were similar concerns here and nothing ever came of it.

yep. I remember. I think that this event was determined to be faulty wiring in the building that lead to building fire

 

[FluxCap]

Tesla commented to Jalopnik:

 

[jesselivenomore]

Anyone remember the "Toronto garage fire" a couple years back? It wasn't exactly the same as this, but there were similar concerns here and nothing ever came of it.

Correct, the stock had no reaction to the news. Curiously enough, that fire was first reported on 2/14/14, also 2 trading days before a major company announcement, earnings report in that case. An earnings report that subsequently propelled the stock from 193 to 265 in 5 days.

 

[wk057]

Yeah, sorry shorts... a fire started in an intact Tesla battery wouldn't burn like that, IMO.

The battery has several fire safety features. The most notable ones being an aerogel type fire blanket on top of the pack (check out my thermal video of this material from one of the packs I tore down where I put a ~3000C torch a few inches from my wife's hands with nothing but this material in between her hands and the torch), along with channels that direct pressure and such towards one end of the pack or the other (basically either wheel well, or otherwise not into the cabin), and individual chambers for each module within the pack. Long story short, I don't see how a battery fire would have even been able to progress to the cabin from an undamaged pack. It would take hours, by my estimate.

Also, I don't think there is much a supercharger could do that would cause a fire.

Let's say something shorted somewhere. There are about a half-dozen fuses between the power output of the supercharger and the batteries, so that's out. A short would be arrested by one or more fuses well before anything bad happened. Even if all of these fuses were replaced with thick wire or bus bars, the cell level fuses inside the pack would pop during a direct short.

So, let's say the supercharger over-voltaged the input for some reason. The car would just open the fast-charge contactors to protect the pack.

Battery cooling system compromised? Car just won't charge as fast.

I mean, there is pretty much nothing that could happen during a supercharge that would cause a fire.

I'll put $100 on the cause being either owner negligence (drop a cigarette on the floor or something equally stupid) or arson.

 

[FluxCap]

Correct, the stock had no reaction to the news. Curiously enough, that fire was first reported on 2/14/14, also 2 trading days before a major company announcement, earnings report in that case. An earnings report that subsequently propelled the stock from 193 to 265 in 5 days.

I agree. I normally would not suspect this, but we have not ruled out arson / deliberate torching of a car to cover a short position.

Could be a trunk/frunk with some New Year's firecrackers, ashes from a cigarette, improper equipment, or some other factor as well. We shall just have to wait and see.

 

[AlMc]

Yeah, sorry shorts... a fire started in an intact Tesla battery wouldn't burn like that, IMO.

The battery has several fire safety features. The most notable ones being an aerogel type fire blanket on top of the pack (check out my thermal video of this material from one of the packs I tore down where I put a ~3000F torch a few inches from my wife's hands with nothing but this material in between her hands and the torch), along with channels that direct pressure and such towards one end of the pack or the other (basically either wheel well, or otherwise not into the cabin), and individual chambers for each module within the pack. Long story short, I don't see how a battery fire would have even been able to progress to the cabin from an undamaged pack. It would take hours, by my estimate.

Also, I don't think there is much a supercharger could do that would cause a fire.

Let's say something shorted somewhere. There are about a half-dozen fuses between the power output of the supercharger and the batteries, so that's out. A short would be arrested by one or more fuses well before anything bad happened. Even if all of these fuses were replaced with thick wire or bus bars, the cell level fuses inside the pack would pop during a direct short.

So, let's say the supercharger over-voltaged the input for some reason. The car would just open the fast-charge contactors to protect the pack.

Battery cooling system compromised? Car just won't charge as fast.

I mean, there is pretty much nothing that could happen during a supercharge that would cause a fire.

I'll put $100 on the cause being either owner negligence (drop a cigarette on the floor or something equally stupid) or arson.

Good technical information/assessment, as usual, 'wk' Thanks Al

 

[FredTMC]

Would be great if there's security camera footage of the area