Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Auzie]

fish jumping into the boat" was referring his perceived demand of S in China in H1 2014. Well, didn't turn out the way he thought it was...

I thought the metaphor refers to ev demand in general

Regardless of what exactly Elon had in mind when he used it, the metaphor is still well placed when speaking of demand. People are still signing up and waiting for cars sight unseen

I am a bit jealous of that cool avatar

 

[Fallenone]

I thought the metaphor refers to ev demand in general

Regardless of what exactly Elon had in mind when he used it, the metaphor is still well placed when speaking of demand. People are still signing up and waiting for cars sight unseen

I am a bit jealous of that cool avatar

Koala bear is always cool

 

[jhm]

Let me stop you there.

This is the product the entire world has been screaming out loud for since Woodstock 1969. Consumers have so had enough of hopless enslavement to environmental pollution, OPEC, Car Dealers Gas Pumps and Oil Changes to suggest otherwise is just completely and utterly nuts.

Ha, ha. I got you. The product alone is not that great. Where would that product be without the driver, the admirer, the buyer? Greatness is in the response we have to the car and the value we place on it. My cat is no more impressed with my Model S than he is with empty boxes he can sit in.

 

[Ukland Wombat]

I thought the metaphor refers to ev demand in general

Regardless of what exactly Elon had in mind when he used it, the metaphor is still well placed when speaking of demand. People are still signing up and waiting for cars sight unseen

I am a bit jealous of that cool avatar

Yeah, thanks Auzie for adding the words "sight unseen" (my bolding) to this discussion. So true, and that really says it all as far as demand is concerned.

And adding to the sentiments Julian has recently expressed, I can honestly say I have had in my own mind a desire to have a Tesla-type car long before it even existed, probably before Elon was born. Of course, I couldn't picture how it would be, but I had a very clear understanding of everything that was wrong with the status quo. Oil, oil wars, pollution, much more wasted heat than useful motion from an ICE, dealerships, insurance...and at every step the car owning costumer is hostage to racketeering on an industrial scale. It has offended me for the whole of my adult life.

Dare I say it...that there could be latent demand for an escape from this legallised form of racketeering in almost every hostage (I mean adult person) alive today?

The problem is...we haven't found a way to express it.

IMO, if Model 3 specs turn out to be anywhere in the range of our expectations, people will suddenly find a way to say that which those like me could never say before.

Sometimes you just need a noun or name to get a handle on the idea or object you want to communicate. Until you have it, there is nothing to say...no conversation.

I expect a pandemic of Tesla awareness after the Model 3 reveal. In Europe, the value proposition will be so great that awareness cannot be suppressed. Also, we don't have obstacles to Tesla's direct sales model AFAIK, like there are in so many US states.

And I say again to jhm...it won't be a hard sell, the desire to escape the racketeering is hard wired into every potential customer ...I mean why do some people already pay too much (over a comparable ICE) for an inadequate EV?

All Tesla needs to do is tickle the collective consciousness with an adequate EV. And it's about to happen.

 

[Auzie]

the desire to escape the racketeering is hard wired into every potential customer

All Tesla needs to do is tickle the collective consciousness with an adequate EV.

Couldn't agree more.

Wombat, I'd just expand your statement about escapism or the hard-wired desire to escape, that desire to escape goes beyond just the ice cars.

I can understand Elon's desire to fly out of this world, even if that means going to Mars. Mars is not a destination within the current reach. Until Mars is reachable, Australia holds the coveted title of the ultimate escape. I can vouch that it lives up to it.

 

[Pragmatist]

This launch is very different from that of any of the prior unveils or events. This is a fundamental shift in course of humanity. This is the moment when a rocket comes back from the sky and does a perfect landing - but in a Tesla sense.

In one of the annual shareholder meetings, someone asked what will cause EVs to be adopted by main stream. Musk's answer was "long distance travel and price - and that's it" and he did a hand movement drawing a hockey stick in air - projecting how market will take off once these two are accomplished. Long distance travel is one thing that Tesla already accomplished (note: which no one else did, yet). The only thing left was price. This unveil represents accomplishing the goal, or confidence in accomplishing that goal, with today's available battery tech, with "no miracles needed".

If Musk's vision is to be believed - this is THE holy grail. This is a very big deal.

Yes, the Model 3 might be Tesla's holy grail, but the question is more about execution.

Can Tesla really pull off the car by the end of 2017? Maybe they will sneak by a few founder edition cars on Dec 31, 2017. Then, it could take them 3-4 months to hash out issues before they start making non-founder deliveries. And then scaling/ramping might be difficult (ie., when has Tesla ever had a smooth ramp?). So, maybe they deliver 5 founder cars on Dec 31, 2017. 3,000 cars in 1st half 2018. 20,000 cars in 2nd half 2018. Then, in 2019 maybe they ramp production but it's not that easy as they need a lot of investment to ramp. So maybe in 2019 they produce/deliver 100,000 Model 3s. In 2020, maybe 175k Model 3s.

So the car might be great, but the real question is if Tesla can really ramp production and hash out problems before production. They don't have a great track record with this. And with high Wall Street expectations, I wonder if Tesla will be able to meet those expectations. Also, Tesla is responsible with giving those expectations as well (ie., 500k cars by 2020). If Tesla doesn't meet or beat the expectations they've given to Wall Street, then don't expect the stock to perform well.

 

[BriansTesla]

Yeah, thanks Auzie for adding the words "sight unseen" (my bolding) to this discussion. So true, and that really says it all as far as demand is concerned.

And adding to the sentiments Julian has recently expressed, I can honestly say I have had in my own mind a desire to have a Tesla-type car long before it even existed, probably before Elon was born. Of course, I couldn't picture how it would be, but I had a very clear understanding of everything that was wrong with the status quo. Oil, oil wars, pollution, much more wasted heat than useful motion from an ICE, dealerships, insurance...and at every step the car owning costumer is hostage to racketeering on an industrial scale. It has offended me for the whole of my adult life.

Dare I say it...that there could be latent demand for an escape from this legallised form of racketeering in almost every hostage (I mean adult person) alive today?

The problem is...we haven't found a way to express it.

IMO, if Model 3 specs turn out to be anywhere in the range of our expectations, people will suddenly find a way to say that which those like me could never say before.

Sometimes you just need a noun or name to get a handle on the idea or object you want to communicate. Until you have it, there is nothing to say...no conversation.

I expect a pandemic of Tesla awareness after the Model 3 reveal. In Europe, the value proposition will be so great that awareness cannot be suppressed. Also, we don't have obstacles to Tesla's direct sales model AFAIK, like there are in so many US states.

And I say again to jhm...it won't be a hard sell, the desire to escape the racketeering is hard wired into every potential customer ...I mean why do some people already pay too much (over a comparable ICE) for an inadequate EV?

All Tesla needs to do is tickle the collective consciousness with an adequate EV. And it's about to happen.

Very well said. You have perfectly named my own unexpressed feelings.

 

[hoang51]

Yes, the Model 3 might be Tesla's holy grail, but the question is more about execution.

Can Tesla really pull off the car by the end of 2017? Maybe they will sneak by a few founder edition cars on Dec 31, 2017. Then, it could take them 3-4 months to hash out issues before they start making non-founder deliveries. And then scaling/ramping might be difficult (ie., when has Tesla ever had a smooth ramp?). So, maybe they deliver 5 founder cars on Dec 31, 2017. 3,000 cars in 1st half 2018. 20,000 cars in 2nd half 2018. Then, in 2019 maybe they ramp production but it's not that easy as they need a lot of investment to ramp. So maybe in 2019 they produce/deliver 100,000 Model 3s. In 2020, maybe 175k Model 3s.

So the car might be great, but the real question is if Tesla can really ramp production and hash out problems before production. They don't have a great track record with this. And with high Wall Street expectations, I wonder if Tesla will be able to meet those expectations. Also, Tesla is responsible with giving those expectations as well (ie., 500k cars by 2020). If Tesla doesn't meet or beat the expectations they've given to Wall Street, then don't expect the stock to perform well.

Theoretically, Tesla Motors should not experience a delay like Model X because the Model 3 as stated won't be over engineered to have so many complex additions. If the Model 3 is similar to Model S build, then the body manufacturing shouldn't be overly complex. I think they can manage in 2018. Only thing that would hinder is the gigafactory having issues supplying the batteries for the Model 3.

 

[Ukland Wombat]

Couldn't agree more.

Wombat, I'd just expand your statement about escapism or the hard-wired desire to escape, that desire to escape goes beyond just the ice cars.

I can understand Elon's desire to fly out of this world, even if that means going to Mars. Mars is not a destination within the current reach. Until Mars is reachable, Australia holds the coveted title of the ultimate escape. I can vouch that it lives up to it.

So can I. I escaped to Australia!... lived in WA most of my adult life... became naturalised and now I'm back in the UK owing more to family circumstances than to my own preferences. Hence Ukland, as in "uck = not good". And Wombat as in why am I not in bed at this time? Also, I tend to be content burrowing into dark little spaces.

Sadly, the Brits seem bogged in their past. I am also a Brit so I can be rude. The country just muddles along. Energy policy here is an absolute disaster.

 

[geneclean55]

So can I. I escaped to Australia!... lived in WA most of my adult life... became naturalised and now I'm back in the UK owing more to family circumstances than to my own preferences. Hence Ukland, as in "uck = not good". And Wombat as in why am I not in bed at this time? Also, I tend to be content burrowing into dark little spaces.

Sadly, the Brits seem bogged in their past. I am also a Brit so I can be rude. The country just muddles along. Energy policy here is an absolute disaster.

As a fellow Brit, this seems a little harsh. The offshore wind farm developments seem impressive at the very least.

 

[Ukland Wombat]

As a fellow Brit, this seems a little harsh. The offshore wind farm developments seem impressive at the very least.

The fact that they have to be offshore is not impressive. How many quaint dutch windmills would we see today in Holland if the seventeenth century millers were told to put their new-fangled apparatus in the North Sea?...or to take the absurdity one step further ...what if the medieval English themselves were only allowed to build their wonderful church spires at sea? because they were seen as a blot on the landscape...far too tall of course...you can see them for miles...we can't have that.

 

[geneclean55]

The fact that they have to be offshore is not impressive. How many quaint dutch windmills would we see today in Holland if the seventeenth century millers were told to put their new-fangled apparatus in the North Sea?...or to take the absurdity one step further ...what if the medieval English themselves were only allowed to build their wonderful church spires at sea? because they were seen as a blot on the landscape...far too tall of course...you can see them for miles...we can't have that.

During December 2015 , 17% of UK electricity generation was provided by wind. That seems pretty impressive to me.

 

[Ukland Wombat]

As a fellow Brit, this seems a little harsh. The offshore wind farm developments seem impressive at the very least.

And needless to say offshore is so so so much more expensive to build and then to service. And once built it forces the utility to beef up the transmission infrastructure more than if the generation was distributed on land. Pylons are allowed in the precious landscape but not so many turbines for some reason I can't fully understand. The Danes are not so precious about wind turbines in their landscape.

I feel a bit naughty continuing this off-topic discussion...perhaps I'll keep it for later in the SolarCity thread where it is only very slightly less off-topic!

 

[Xpert]

Theoretically, Tesla Motors should not experience a delay like Model X because the Model 3 as stated won't be over engineered to have so many complex additions. If the Model 3 is similar to Model S build, then the body manufacturing shouldn't be overly complex. I think they can manage in 2018. Only thing that would hinder is the gigafactory having issues supplying the batteries for the Model 3.

Gigafactory is ahead of schedule and Elon has said it wont be the limiting factor for model 3. With model 3 designed for mass production unlike model X, i actually think they will be on time if not early!

 

[geneclean55]

And needless to say offshore is so so so much more expensive to build and then to service. And once built it forces the utility to beef up the transmission infrastructure more than if the generation was distributed on land. Pylons are allowed in the precious landscape but not so many turbines for some reason I can't fully understand. The Danes are not so precious about wind turbines in their landscape.

I feel a bit naughty continuing this off-topic discussion...perhaps I'll keep it for later in the SolarCity thread where it is only very slightly less off-topic!

I am not an expert on the matter, but I have read that stronger wind speeds are typically more available offshore. There is also a suggestion of hooking up wind farms between neighboring North Sea countries to share electricity generation. Not sure if that will come about or not.

 

[Xpert]

Here are some reasons one should not sell before the reveal:
1. Expecting a HUGE line at every store on 31st.
2. All recent positive analyst comments
3. By the Model X reveal last year, tsla reached $270ish. This is model 3, the hype is even larger.
4. Market is trending up. Fed is on our side with 2 hikes vs. 4 this year
5. Tsla is on a V shape recovery, huge uptrend. It just knocked out 200 days MA
6. Gigafactory activities, powerpacks/walls
7. Expecting announcement for a china partner by june, could be any time.
8. X ramping up has been obvious, no reason for delay or not meeting 16000 deliveries.
9. I am lining up on 3/31 for my $25000 tesla (after tax refund).
10. 34 million shares short must be freaking out right now.
I am holding all options until 3/31 unless we reach $270 before then

 

[Krugerrand]

Yes, the Model 3 might be Tesla's holy grail, but the question is more about execution.

Can Tesla really pull off the car by the end of 2017?

<snip>

If Tesla doesn't meet or beat the expectations they've given to Wall Street, then don't expect the stock to perform well.

Given your 'handle' I can understand your stated position. The reality of it is that the finer points of Dec 2017 vs Mar 2018, or 175k vs 265k in 2019, or TSLA $300 by a certain date or $412.56 by a certain date doesn't matter. What needs to be realized is that it's going to happen. It is happening. The snowball has been pushed over the side of the mountain and it's begun its roll toward the valley below.

For short term investing feel free to analyze the Unicorn formations, macro events, GAAP and NON-GAAP numbers, your own personal 8-ball and do your worst, but long term the deal is done. Done like dinner.

So no, the question is not more about execution. The question is are you on the train or will you be run over by it? Because the train is a comin'. It might not get here on schedule, but it's coming nonetheless; don't take too long in the little boy's/girl's room.

 

[hiroshiy]

Quick trading question. I'm long TSLA. I want to sell at 233 or above.

I want to put a stop-limit order in at 233/233. If the price is below 233, will it still fire when it reaches 233, or only if it drops to 233? I suspect the former, so I don't want to put the order in just yet.

Basically, if it goes over 233, I want to hold. If it goes over 233 and then drops before I sell highr, I want to sell as it drops back to 233.

thanks.

Hi, Hank, when you have a limit sell order of 233.00 exactly, if there are enough buyers with market or with limit 233.00 or above, your order will be settled. TSLA is a popular stock with generally high trading volume, so I think your order will be fulfilled when the price reaches 233.00. If you want to hold IF it's going higher than 233, then you will need to watch closely.

 

[Julian Cox]

Yes, the Model 3 might be Tesla's holy grail, but the question is more about execution.

Can Tesla really pull off the car by the end of 2017? Maybe they will sneak by a few founder edition cars on Dec 31, 2017. Then, it could take them 3-4 months to hash out issues before they start making non-founder deliveries. And then scaling/ramping might be difficult (ie., when has Tesla ever had a smooth ramp?). So, maybe they deliver 5 founder cars on Dec 31, 2017. 3,000 cars in 1st half 2018. 20,000 cars in 2nd half 2018. Then, in 2019 maybe they ramp production but it's not that easy as they need a lot of investment to ramp. So maybe in 2019 they produce/deliver 100,000 Model 3s. In 2020, maybe 175k Model 3s.

So the car might be great, but the real question is if Tesla can really ramp production and hash out problems before production. They don't have a great track record with this. And with high Wall Street expectations, I wonder if Tesla will be able to meet those expectations. Also, Tesla is responsible with giving those expectations as well (ie., 500k cars by 2020). If Tesla doesn't meet or beat the expectations they've given to Wall Street, then don't expect the stock to perform well.

I was about to say that your comment was a whole lot of maybe and therefor completely useless, but in one way it isn't. This is one of the best ever summaries of the canvas upon which the story of Tesla is painted. Every time a piece of this nagging under-researched skepticism is blown away by something Tesla delivers, that is when the price goes skywards and the shorts get hurt.

 

[hobbes]

Sorry I posted about the after hours price earlier. Half and hour after close, Microsoft Money was showing the after hours price down exactly the rise for the day. I should just go back to lurking.

No problem. Yahoo finance often has errors in its graphs, so if I find something strange I cross check with other sites before get excited.