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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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TO THE EXTENT that this unfortunate event had to occur at all, I should like to say that for TSLA investors the least-worst timing I can think of is at the beginning of a three-day market holiday - as happened. This does provide a goodly amount of time for smoke to clear and dust to settle, so to speak.

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Eius primus cuius nominus. It SHOULD be named whatever the OP wants it to be named.

Unless a Mod jumps in and....

Oh. Lookee what I just did! :biggrin:

Happy New Year everyone.

Thank you 'Mr Mild Mannered Mod'
 
Thanks. I was not aware of this problem. TM has been good at replacing parts/upgrading at annual service visits. Do you know if they replaced these non thermal sensing JBs?

When they introduced the 2nd gen HVJB (along with the 2nd gen chargers), I think they added a temp sensor. All cars prior to this didn't have one. A loose connection in the 2nd gen box could build up heat that may be detected and the car shut down. So this makes it "safer", but up till now there hasn't been a single SpC f**e, so there is no reason to think that there is a problem with the 1st gen boxes that would merit a recall. If my guess is indeed found to be correct, a fix could be made in software to compare the voltage of the SpC to the voltage of the battery to look for high resistance anywhere in the chain. For all we know they might already do this.

Look at it this way, a D car may have safer handling, but that doesn't mean Tesla should recall all the non-D cars for safety, right?
 
When they introduced the 2nd gen HVJB (along with the 2nd gen chargers), I think they added a temp sensor. All cars prior to this didn't have one. A loose connection in the 2nd gen box could build up heat that may be detected and the car shut down. So this makes it "safer", but up till now there hasn't been a single SpC f**e, so there is no reason to think that there is a problem with the 1st gen boxes that would merit a recall. If my guess is indeed found to be correct, a fix could be made in software to compare the voltage of the SpC to the voltage of the battery to look for high resistance anywhere in the chain. For all we know they might already do this.

Look at it this way, a D car may have safer handling, but that doesn't mean Tesla should recall all the non-D cars for safety, right?
Thanks for the info. I was not suggesting the need for a recall but with each yearly service I have had some 'parts upgraded/replaced'. I just thought that TM would have probably corrected any issue with the HVJB at one of these routine service calls. No recall being needed...just an 'upgrade'
 
So Musk has been speaking much more emphatically about achieving level 4 autonomous driving within 2 years. Given the closeness in timing with Model 3, do people think Musk could hold up Model 3 until autonomous driving is ready?
 
So Musk has been speaking much more emphatically about achieving level 4 autonomous driving within 2 years. Given the closeness in timing with Model 3, do people think Musk could hold up Model 3 until autonomous driving is ready?

Tesla can throw in enough hardware and push the product out the door but release full autonomous driving much more slowly using ota software updates. So I don't see a need to hold up model 3. Even if the hardware is not ready, I don't see the need to hold up model 3 release. Maybe I am missing the connection you are are making. Are you expecting a complete overhaul of the business model with model3? Maybe no car sales, only ride sales?
 
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"Tesla on fire while supercharging". In norway. Like one hour ago. Fuel for the bears?

Y'know, looking closely at this image, the front nose of the car and hood still have frost on them. Flames are clearly coming out of the cab, but I do not see evidence that the battery pack is burning from below. If the fire were from below, it would come out around the sides of the cab and likely melt the ice on the nose. So it does not appear that the fire was cause by some sort of strike from below. I suspect that the origin of the fire is in the cab.

BTW, I once witnessed a distraught woman light her car on fire from the inside of the cab. She had been yelling at her boyfriend and trying to get his attention. I was shocked to see flame emerge, as the woman continued to sit in her car. Eventually, she had enough sense to bail out of the car just before the whole thing exploded into flames. We did call 911 when we first saw flames. True story.

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Tesla can throw in enough hardware and push the product out the door but release full autonomous driving much more slowly using ota software updates. So I don't see a need to hold up model 3. Even if the hardware is not ready, I don't see the need to hold up model 3 release. Maybe I am missing the connection you are are making. Are you expecting a complete overhaul of the business model with model3? Maybe no car sales, only ride sales?

I see no deep connection here just a coincidence of timing. But Musk does have a tendency to want to do something quite special with each new model. So the Model 3 would break huge new ground if it was the first fully autonomous car brought to market. So we expect the design to be on the ordinary side. We expect the car to be affordable. We expect the same autopilot and other tech to be available. But what no one is expecting is full autonomy, or even the nuances that would bring to other design elements. The Model 3 could be the first car built from the ground up for autonomy. I think this would be worthy of Musk's ambition, and as such it could hold up delivery for a while.

Of course, they can certainly release the car before all the software and legal standing is in place. But what would be cool is a first car optimized from the ground up for autonomy.
 
This was my first thought, too. It is highly suspicious timing on several different levels, and foul play shouldn't ruled out.

To fan the flames even more, besides those shorting (which are a small and insignificant number), there are HUGE industries and countries which are closely monitoring the tesla 'experiment.' Is this a way to kill the electric car? It would be if one of the worlds smartest entrepreneurs cannot figure it out, then it would be easy to fall back to the tried and time tested paradigm. There is alot more riding on tesla motors than just its SP, the paradigm is changing, and some people don't want it to.

Meanwhile, i'm gng to take my cell phone to the nearest station to recharge it, since i'm too lazy to plug it in at nite.
 
I would like to encourage everyone to keep calm and not speculate all over so much: If I was in a situation where a Tesla owned by me would burst into flames I would really hate to see TMC - i.e. "my" community - to start all these completely baseless armchair analysis and insinuating bad intent.

Remember, even if foul play was involved, it may not need to be against TSLA at all: people do bad things to property of ex-partners, parents-in-law, neighbours, insurance companies etc. all the time. And then the timing is good for "us": Mr. market has 3 days to put this into perspective. And lastly, given the number of cars on the road, any serious attempt to kill TSLA would require a whole series of f**rs - so that certainly wouldn't happen with just one...

As was said further up: let's wait what the report on the incident says, let's wait for the dust to settle and then we can still comment the heck out of it.
 
To fan the flames even more, besides those shorting (which are a small and insignificant number),

Agreeing with Sebastian overall, I think the likelihood of foulplay is small, although it is still odd how these things keep happening before big earnings events. With that said, at 27.86M shares short, there is currently a value of $6.7 BILLION dollars betting against TSLA(not including options). While yes, relatively small compared to trillion dollar industries, that is still a staggering amount of money someone(s) stands to lose every dollar TSLA appreciates.
 
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I find it unlikely that a TSLA short bought a car and set it on fire. I would be surprised if there were any significant TSLA shorts in Norway.

My expectations for most TSLA shorts are that they would be domiciled in the US.


That said, I would not be surprised if the fire were unintentionally caused by the new owner.


I doubt that this event will have any impact on TSLA. Tesla cars have done too many miles with no similar problems, putting this accident into a context of unexpected rare occurrence.

The release of eagerly awaited yearly/quarterly delivery numbers will trump any publicity generated by this accident.
 
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You're making up stories now and you've been around the forum long enough to know that's typically not appreciated, especially not on the investment threads.

I fear you are looking through rose tinted glasses. This forum loves wild speculation. For example, just a few pages later several posters have no issue speculating on how this is a short who bought a Tesla to burn it down to cover their position. I mean, yeah it's 'possible' but so are the 'stories' you are referring to.
 
The norway incident will have no impact on the stock price, not even short term

- markets are closed for 2 more days
- we might have more information on what has happened
- it is a very rare incident (first one at a SC?)

This will serve as proof that Tesla as a company is maturing. Things like this can happen, but don't put the company at risk.

I sure am glad that nobody was hurt.
 
Y'know, looking closely at this image, the front nose of the car and hood still have frost on them.

I believe that is fire suppressant foam.


The Model 3 could be the first car built from the ground up for autonomy. I think this would be worthy of Musk's ambition, and as such it could hold up delivery for a while.

Unlikely since Musk has stated they are going to be less ambitious with the 3 initially so as not to delay it. I think even Elon realizes the missed deadlines are becoming problematic for the company.
 
I believe that is fire suppressant foam.




Unlikely since Musk has stated they are going to be less ambitious with the 3 initially so as not to delay it. I think even Elon realizes the missed deadlines are becoming problematic for the company.
Well, I think the reason has little to do with not wanting to miss self imposed deadlines and everything to do with needing the car to be ready when the gigafactory is ready. Idle gigafactory would be terrible for the business. There was no such forcing function on Model X.
 
Ok, thanks.


It it was plugged into one of those Skid-pallet based temporary Superchargers. Two pumps and the main cabinet in between

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The norway incident will have no impact on the stock price, not even short term

- markets are closed for 2 more days
- we might have more information on what has happened
- it is a very rare incident (first one at a SC?)

This will serve as proof that Tesla as a company is maturing. Things like this can happen, but don't put the company at risk.

I sure am glad that nobody was hurt.

Yeah, I'm beginning to think its impact will be very small and certainty eclipsed by Q4 delivery numbers.
 
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