ludicrousspeed
Member
Regarding the next earnings, any thoughts on the missed deliveries numbers or general consensus coming out of the conference call? My back of the napkin was that they came up about 30m (net cash gain/loss) shy of guidance due to the deliveries, but with the model 3 pre-orders that added about 300m which makes that 30m seem pretty insignificant, but then again revenues which seem to be the focus sometimes will still be off by 5ish%. So assuming improving model x margins, growing battery sales, and maybe re-affirmed or upped guidance, it seems fairly optimistic to me. My sense with the model x is that maybe with the recall and getting through the order backlog there will be a fairly short-term slow down but the reviews and consensus will build and it will sell about as much or maybe a bit better than the model s.
I'm personally not too optimistic about the Q1 ER, which should be in about three weeks. Keep in mind that about half of that $300M of reservation deposits came in after the quarter ended. Also, the X margins will probably not be as high as Tesla wanted due to QC issues with the initial production ramp. I believe poor Q1 financial performance won't affect the stock terribly because everybody already knows about the delivery miss and because forward guidance will still be very optimistic.
On the hand hand, I think Tesla is going to knock this quarter out of the park when they report Q2 earnings in the beginning of Aug. I see many similarities between this quarter and Q1'13 and think that this is the next big event that will move the stock past its current trading range.