Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[sundaymorning]

I am totally OK with $500 PT as well, and have a lot of respect for her. She definitely gets it, and doing it for a very long time. I just would like her to ask a couple of questions about the strategy of TE pricing during the ER call

It's great that you even caught the old pricing for PP and PW in her research note. When it comes to crunching numbers, you are one of the most reliable source on this forum. Much a fan of your work, I don't know how you do it..

 

[geneclean55]

Goldman Sachs note time. Historically GS have often tried to talk the stock down in order for their big clients getting in cheaper, when they feel it's getting away from them or need to get out of short positions. Bullish notes have been used in advance of capital raises, which have typically been brokered by GS and Morgan Stanley for the most part (those have been Tesla's main underwriters every time, I believe for the IPO too?). Also, let's not forget that GS is more or less Elon's personal bankers, they provide him personally with liquidity so that he can exercise options (without having to sell straight away), buy secondary offerings himself, buy large chunks of SCTY when it drops, give personal guarantees on resale value for lease cars etc.

Bottom line: if we interpret this note as semi-bullish, but in line with GS history of cautiousness, I think this could signal the capital raise is happening soon. Before ER???

Are there rules on not releasing material information this close to an earnings report? For example, Musk isn't allowed to tweet material information at the moment, I believe.

 

[Johan]

Are there rules on not releasing material information this close to an earnings report? For example, Musk isn't allowed to tweet material information at the moment, I believe.

No actual rules but guidelines most companies adhere to in order to avoid being scrutinized by the SEC.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Appearently, some Gigafactory tour took place today:

Hi! Thought you might like to read my friend's blog post about Tesla.

danger ranger

 

[MitchJi]

Are there efficiencies associated with currently assembling them at the gigafactory instead of Fremont? I am thinking in terms of q1/q2 earnings report.

Yes, they were building the packs manually in Fremont. Set up an automated assembly line at the GF.

 

[JRP3]

P100D admitted by Tesla now?
Tesla - | Facebook

I wouldn't read too much into that. Looks as if someone just parked their car under the "100" emoji signifying it as something exceptional.

 

[jesselivenomore]

UBS Sees Telsa's (TSLA) Model 3 As Unprofitable

Colin Langan who recently reiterated his sell rating apparently hosted a call with former GM engineer Jon Bereisa, who sees the Model 3's factory variable cost at $1510 above base price, which implies a breakeven price of $50k.

More interestingly, Tesla head of investor relations actually called in to dispute some of these claims with some possible new info. Most notably: "Jeff stated that the Model S's all-in pack cost today is already <$190/kWh and that the Model 3 will have a battery size below Jon's estimate of 60kWh."

Seeing that Colin is a frequenter of CNBC, I would not be surprised if this gets more press than the GS note(which got none as expected).

 

[Johan]

Most notably: "Jeff stated that the Model S's all-in pack cost today is already <$190/kWh and that the Model 3 will have a battery size below Jon's estimate of 60kWh."

Straight from the horse's mouth! This is very significant information. Especially the already sub $190/kWh bit.

My added thought: Tesla's head of investor relations actively reaching out to correct misconceptions, in the process divulging possibly valuable information such as internal battery cost (they have been very hesitant to give numbers on this in the past) can only be interpreted in one way: They are actively defending the stock price. A capital raise is coming sooner rather than later.

 

[jesselivenomore]

I would really like to listen to that call btw if someone can find a link.

 

[vgrinshpun]

UBS Sees Telsa's (TSLA) Model 3 As Unprofitable

Colin Langan who recently reiterated his sell rating apparently hosted a call with former GM engineer Jon Bereisa, who sees the Model 3's factory variable cost at $1510 above base price, which implies a breakeven price of $50k.

More interestingly, Tesla head of investor relations actually called in to dispute some of these claims with some possible new info. Most notably: "Jeff stated that the Model S's all-in pack cost today is already <$190/kWh and that the Model 3 will have a battery size below Jon's estimate of 60kWh."

Seeing that Colin is a frequenter of CNBC, I would not be surprised if this gets more press than the GS note(which got none as expected).

Wow! this call-in by Jeff Evanson pretty much invalidated the whole "expert analysis" of the GM guy. I am just in disbelieve how he can be skeptical on the pricing that was point blank given by Tesla's head of IR? Based on what? Experience at GM? This is just preposterous.

The $190/kWh current all in cost of the pack, after 30% GF reduction will work out to $133/kWh and base 55kWh pack cost of $7,315...

 

[Seesaw]

It may get to a point where GM may want to start buying batteries off Tesla... They are just not going to get the scale with 30,000 Bolts a year.

 

[Johan]

I would really like to listen to that call btw if someone can find a link.

The company run by this Jon Bereisa guy (ex GM guy) doesn't have an internet presence at all. Very weird. So what kind of "call" was this? Jeff Evanson must have listened in because the article states he called in during Q&A.

 

[jesselivenomore]

The company run by this Jon Bereisa guy (ex GM guy) doesn't have an internet presence at all. Very weird. So what kind of "call" was this? Jeff Evanson must have listened in because the article states he called in during Q&A.

The article states that it was a call hosted by Colin Langan, so perhaps some kind of UBS investor's call.

 

[austinEV]

Whaaat??? Tesla spokesman saying <$190kWh? That is the single most important datapoint to have come out of TM in a very long time. I have to think he wasn't allowed to say that.

 

[tanner]

Any thoughts as to where we're headed now after amature hour?

 

[Johan]

Information arbitrage situation guys. I'm going to try to trade this one with a short term outlook.

 

[tanner]

Information arbitrage situation guys. I'm going to try to trade this one with a short term outlook.

Please elaborate?

 

[Johan]

Please elaborate?

Think. Tesla's head of investor relations just said their battery cost is $190/kWh. As of today, in Model S and X. And this is "all-in pack cost".

 

[vgrinshpun]

UBS Sees Telsa's (TSLA) Model 3 As Unprofitable

Colin Langan who recently reiterated his sell rating apparently hosted a call with former GM engineer Jon Bereisa, who sees the Model 3's factory variable cost at $1510 above base price, which implies a breakeven price of $50k.

More interestingly, Tesla head of investor relations actually called in to dispute some of these claims with some possible new info. Most notably: "Jeff stated that the Model S's all-in pack cost today is already <$190/kWh and that the Model 3 will have a battery size below Jon's estimate of 60kWh."

Seeing that Colin is a frequenter of CNBC, I would not be surprised if this gets more press than the GS note(which got none as expected).

Wow again! The audacity of the GM guy is just breathtaking. Take a look at this short sentence - it is just stuffed with fallacies!

"Compared to the Bolt, the Model 3 adds incremental variable cost from its aluminum content, lack of scale, extra sensors, a faster propulsion system, and higher pack costs."

• "aluminum content" -wrong, it is public info (based on the reveal rides videos) that body is steel/aluminum composite
• "lack of scale" - this is just a straight face lie. Bolt max production based on info from GM is 30K/year, while Model 3 as an absolute minimum an order of magnitude more
• "higher pack costs" - false as shown by Tesla's IR chief. This in itself is a proof that Bolt battery will be more expensive.

The whole conversation is just point blank confirms that GM is not capable to produce basic sub-compact hatchback at a price that is competitive to the faster, better equipped premium sedan that Model 3 is. This is desperation. I bet that GM will not be able to sell enough of the Bolts to earn ZEV credits that they need to sell their oil burners unless they discount it drastically.

 

[tanner]

Think. Tesla's head of investor relations just said their battery cost is $190/kWh. As of today, in Model S and X. And this is "all-in pack cost".

So sounds like good news