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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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Dr ValueSeeker

Speaks the unfettered truth
Feb 3, 2016
90
90
Omnipresent
Ho Ho Ho!
"For more info on Tesla Energy, check out press kit. $250/kWh for utility scale is the real kicker"

Hee Hee Hee! Your PhD in ValueSeeking should inform you that many many MANY things are cheaper by the dozen.
Utility Scale: $250/kWh (not $200)
Small Order: $470/kWh if you're buying 2 or 4 or so. Neighborhood scale. No contradiction here. What Utility would only buy a handful of Powerpacks?

Ha ha HA. Goo-goo goo-joob. /walrus

Kindly inform me where I can buy them for $250/kwh. At 54 power packs, the biggest system Tesla allows, the price is still $470/kwh.
Build your Powerpack Energy Storage Solution | Tesla Motors

54_powerpack_pricing.JPG
 

Familial Rhino

Endangerous Herbivore
Feb 27, 2014
1,555
5,146
Toronto, ON
Kindly inform me where I can buy them for $250/kwh. At 54 power packs, the biggest system Tesla allows, the price is still $470/kwh.
Build your Powerpack Energy Storage Solution | Tesla Motors

View attachment 174084
Let's assume you're right and utilities have to pay $470/kWh even when they buy in volume. That would mean that TE's profit margin is now much higher than previously assumed. So your gripe is that Elon Musk changed his pricing strategy, grabbing every last penny that was just sitting there on the table looking pretty. And that is so grossly unfair, right?

Yes. So unfair.
 

Johan

Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Feb 9, 2012
7,500
9,936
Drammen, Norway
Let's assume you're right and utilities have to pay $470/kWh. That would mean that TE's profit margin is now much higher than previously assumed. So your gripe is that Elon Musk changed his pricing strategy, grabbing every last penny that was just sitting there on the table. And that is so grossly unfair, right?

Yes. So unfair.

There's no point trying to talk someone fundamentally bearish out of their misery.

TE raises prices in order to make money: Elon is a liar.

Competitor makes unattractive EV: EVs are a failure, Tesla will fail.

Competitior makes attractive EV: Tesla killer will make Tesla fail.

Tesla raises cash in order to grow faster: Tesla needs cash to stay afloat for another year.
 

JRP3

Hyperactive Member
Aug 20, 2007
20,693
49,944
Central New York
He's not going to sell a $50K car for $35K.

We've known the path to a $35K Model 3 for years, all it would take was an efficient vehicle platform, expected cell density improvements, and cell/pack costs far below what the "industry" kept saying was possible, but completely in line with what we already knew was happening. No surprises here.
 

austinEV

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
May 16, 2013
3,231
7,384
Austin
There's no point trying to talk someone fundamentally bearish out of their misery.

TE raises prices in order to make money: Elon is a liar.

Competitor makes unattractive EV: EVs are a failure, Tesla will fail.

Competitior makes attractive EV: Tesla killer will make Tesla fail.

Tesla raises cash in order to grow faster: Tesla needs cash to stay afloat for another year.

Chocolate is delicious: Tesla will fail. Am I the only one who read that post as if it was beat poetry?
 

techmaven

Active Member
Feb 27, 2013
3,618
9,768
The AAPL miss is one of the biggest reasons I have been holding a big cash position. It already is causing a 1% drop of the NASDAQ 100 and will likely cause a downdraft on TSLA too. Would be happy to be wrong, but I wouldn't mind a lower entry point anyways.
 
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austinEV

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
May 16, 2013
3,231
7,384
Austin
The AAPL miss is one of the biggest reasons I have been holding a big cash position. It already is causing a 1% drop of the NASDAQ 100 and will likely cause a downdraft on TSLA too. Would be happy to be wrong, but I wouldn't mind a lower entry point anyways.

Yeah, the hits to GOOG, MSFT, AAPL don't bode well for a long position.
 

techmaven

Active Member
Feb 27, 2013
3,618
9,768
Kindly inform me where I can buy them for $250/kwh. At 54 power packs, the biggest system Tesla allows, the price is still $470/kwh.

I think you are probably better than this. The Kaua’i Island Utility Cooperative is installing 52 MWh of PowerPacks... that's 520 PowerPacks. So obviously, the 54 PowerPacks is merely the biggest system in the configurator. Further, that price is almost certainly a starting, MSRP price. So you are now stuck... with pack pricing likely under $200/kWh, every $1 higher on the selling price is a dollar that goes to gross margin. For every $1 lower, it's a more price competitive. Obviously, if Tesla felt they needed to price the MSRP at $400/kWh, they can. Or $300/kWh. They are choosing this price point because they decided this is what the market will bear. If it doesn't, they can just adjust the price. There's a lot of price points between $250/kWh and $470/kWh. Tesla was going to make a slim profit initially at $250/kWh until production ramps up. Well, production is ramping up and they are asking a much higher price since the market will apparently bear it. So it's all bad news for the TSLA bears here.
 

Johan

Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Feb 9, 2012
7,500
9,936
Drammen, Norway
Chocolate is delicious: Tesla will fail. Am I the only one who read that post as if it was beat poetry?

You know poetry has its own quarantine thread. I would never try to sneak in poetry here. It would be wrong.
Yeah, the hits to GOOG, MSFT, AAPL don't bode well for a long position.

Apple misses on earnings: Tesla will fail :)

Am I completely off to think in the contrarian way: some investment dollars that now flow out if AAPL will be looking for growth. Hello TSLA.
 

SBenson

Active Member
May 22, 2014
1,871
4,755
Benson
@jesselivenomore @Johan @FredTMC

At the end of the day we are all talking about the same ingredients:
- Capital raise
- Short squeeze
- Stock run up big time

The only difference is the timeline and the sequence.

I firmly believe the stock run up + short squeeze will happen ahead of any capital raise.

Like someone said a long time ago, the first rule of capital raise is you don't talk about capital raise. Elon said there was no need to raise capital literally three days before they raised capital last time.

Talking about big expenditure plans and saying they will raise capital will totally put them in a vulnerable position. Now they *need* money. Shorts will drool all over it. They are in a much better bargaining position.

Infact one of the big motives of shorts' shorting is to keep the stock price compressed such that the financing costs for the firm are higher and that creates a self-fulfilling cycle of badness. There is no way that Musk will give any chance of bargaining power to the shorts.

The game is very clear here. Show a blowout quarter or two. Disprove one of the fundamental tenets of shorts that Tesla loses money (or can never make money) on every car it sells. Create a big run up. Get the shorts to the table as counter-parties. Get the deal done.
 

Johan

Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Feb 9, 2012
7,500
9,936
Drammen, Norway
@jesselivenomore @Johan @FredTMC

At the end of the day we are all talking about the same ingredients:
- Capital raise
- Short squeeze
- Stock run up big time

The only difference is the timeline and the sequence.

I firmly believe the stock run up + short squeeze will happen ahead of any capital raise.

Like someone said a long time ago, the first rule of capital raise is you don't talk about capital raise. Elon said there was no need to raise capital literally three days before they raised capital last time.

Talking about big expenditure plans and saying they will raise capital will totally put them in a vulnerable position. Now they *need* money. Shorts will drool all over it. They are in a much better bargaining position.

Infact one of the big motives of shorts' shorting is to keep the stock price compressed such that the financing costs for the firm are higher and that creates a self-fulfilling cycle of badness. There is no way that Musk will give any chance of bargaining power to the shorts.

The game is very clear here. Show a blowout quarter or two. Disprove one of the fundamental tenets of shorts that Tesla loses money (or can never make money) on every car it sells. Create a big run up. Get the shorts to the table as counter-parties. Get the deal done.

What you're saying makes sense.

So in short what will happen is they will announce all these ambitious plans for growth a bit in to the future and they will aim for 1-2 FCF positive quarters. When asked if they will need to raise capital they'll say no, and point to being FCF positive and in effect self funded. Then a squeeze ensues. Then they raise a boatload of cash anyway.
 
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30seconds

Active Member
Feb 28, 2013
2,232
5,659
SF
@jesselivenomore @Johan @FredTMC

At the end of the day we are all talking about the same ingredients:
- Capital raise
- Short squeeze
- Stock run up big time

The only difference is the timeline and the sequence.

I firmly believe the stock run up + short squeeze will happen ahead of any capital raise.

Like someone said a long time ago, the first rule of capital raise is you don't talk about capital raise. Elon said there was no need to raise capital literally three days before they raised capital last time.

Talking about big expenditure plans and saying they will raise capital will totally put them in a vulnerable position. Now they *need* money. Shorts will drool all over it. They are in a much better bargaining position.

Infact one of the big motives of shorts' shorting is to keep the stock price compressed such that the financing costs for the firm are higher and that creates a self-fulfilling cycle of badness. There is no way that Musk will give any chance of bargaining power to the shorts.

The game is very clear here. Show a blowout quarter or two. Disprove one of the fundamental tenets of shorts that Tesla loses money (or can never make money) on every car it sells. Create a big run up. Get the shorts to the table as counter-parties. Get the deal done.

Except for the need to show a blowout quarter or two I agree with your point about talking vs. timing of capital raise. Two blowout quarters would be the 3Q financials sometime in November. Way too long to wait to speed production ramp/ significantly expand production. One reasonably good quarter would suffice (Q2 report in August), especially since the Model 3 deposits have given them some room.
 
Jul 21, 2015
238
202
Ft. Lauderdale, FL
Yes. Confirmed folks. CONFIRMED.

MS "all-in" pack cost is less than $190/kWh

Thank you. This is why I feel way more informed reading the forums than the mainstream articles. This wasn't posted anywhere and is given no attention, but it really puts a dent in the bear thesis that Tesla can't profit off of lower priced vehicles like the M3.
 
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