I'm saying we don't know if the hardware aspect has already been cleared up and this software completes the package.
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I'm saying we don't know if the hardware aspect has already been cleared up and this software completes the package.
Under the 2009 option grant he can buy about another 6.2 million shares at $6.63/share; those options expire in early December. Depending on the share price when he exercises, tax withholding would be significant, about $465 million at a share price of $150.
larmor
Active Member
Actually even if FCF comes by Q2 that would be great. They are changing the paradigm for automobiles, and energy. THink the model 3 will be popular here? Doesn't matter, many countries levy huge import duties on automobiles by the engine size, so a corolla can cost as much as $35k. My experience is based on India/Pak regulations for cars, etc. Population needs and pollution are both rising, but no one has a vested financial interest in improving the air around us.
Hypothetically, a large company could buy a block of 20 to 40k units of model 3, in combo with solar and powerall, and offer the whole package to india/pak subcontinent. No need to convert your car to LNG, no need to wait in the petrol station.
TMC forum followers, chime in if you can see this opportunity in other countries? Or am i just gagging on the smog...
That is an interesting way of looking at it. For example if they had some reservations about strength of the hinges under certain worst case scenario conditions, they could've adjusted operation of doors via software (say slow down the opening/closing) to avoid over-stressing the original hinges. Once the new hinges started to flow in enough of a quantity to switch to the new hinges in newly produced cars and to replace existing hinges on cars that were produced earlier, an OTA can be deployed to revert to normal operation of the doors.
Gerardf
Active Member
Good point
But even then, he can easily borrow that sum against the 6M new shares he just acquired. (Today valued a 150 x 6.2M is more than 900 M.)
I am playing it safe.. I have a put for 80 dollars (sell) for people that may not know. I got paid to write the put. I will be more than happy to buy TSLA if it drops this low. I am not holding any TESLA at the moment , earnings tomorrow could push the stock down further. I think the small bounce was a dead cat bounce. TESLA will be facing some real financial hurdle in the coming weeks.
The dollars amount needed to achieve their goal of 500K car a year by 2020 will be titanic. No pun intended. The amount of investment in batteries and equipment to produce these cars won't be an easy task.
That is my TWO cents.
The dollars amount needed to achieve their goal of 500K car a year by 2020 will be titanic. No pun intended. The amount of investment in batteries and equipment to produce these cars won't be an easy task.
That is my TWO cents.
dreamingof3
Member
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
yes, getting to Positive FCF will quiet down concerns about Tesla's prior cash burnrate.
I think tesla will change the narrative from last year.
2015 was "we will spend tons of CapEx as an investment for future growth (MX tooling and GF)
This year's narrative is: we have positive FCF. We are no longer burning cash. Our Cash onhand will grow In 2016.
As others have said, last year was we are "investing" in the business. This year is we are making profits and increasing cash on hand
Gerardf
Active Member
Don't want to spoil the party, but I am not so sure we are out of the woods.
What is worrying me is the almost continuous trend down, at virtually the same rate all the time.
Could this be a single big player slowly continuously selling (trend only interrupted by shorts covering or longs coming in, and the jump of this morning.
As we know, it was not shorts.
Is there someone with a fancy trading display that can track such information ?
I do think however tomorrow evening the ER should turn things around.
What is worrying me is the almost continuous trend down, at virtually the same rate all the time.
Could this be a single big player slowly continuously selling (trend only interrupted by shorts covering or longs coming in, and the jump of this morning.
As we know, it was not shorts.
Is there someone with a fancy trading display that can track such information ?
I do think however tomorrow evening the ER should turn things around.
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phigment
Member
That number will only include new data from mid to end of Jan. TSLA didn't really start it's descent until Feb 2.
I have never, and will never 'short' TSLA. However, I have purchased 'puts'. I expect some of the smart 'shorts' are right now/today covering enough of their positions to book at least a small profit and ride the rest through the ER/CC that based on their thesis will see TSLA go down.
Personally, with the volatility in the market, in general, and TSLA specifically, I would set up another strangle if the IVs were not so high. A big move is coming in the short term (after ER), IMO, I just have zero idea in what direction that will be.
As confident as the longs are that the ER/CC will be good is exactly how confident that the ER/CC will be bad according to the shorts. Both groups are made up by diverse groups of people/institutions. All of us longs were writing poetry on this site/cheering during the steep climbs/ATHs. All the shorts are pretty happy/gloating now.
I want to hear arguments from both sides to help me make wise decisions. I prefer no poetry when we are accelerating and no gloating from others when things turn down.
Bulls will have their day again and the bears will suffer losses.
This is a momo stock that is not for the faint of heart.
Is there a resource where we can see this short-interest data in real-time, instead of waiting two weeks to see two week old data that isn't that relevant anymore?
Well the fee rate at IB is back up to 10% today. But that doesn't tell you too much.
dreamingof3
Member
It took many years before fuel injected engines became reliable enough to ship in mass market cars. But when they did, it was used as a major marketing advantage... they all had "Fuel Injected", "injezzione", or "xxxi" on the back. BMW still do! Most people don't realize that the "i" means something other than "not d". Now, of course, you'd be hard pressed to even find a carbureted new car, and you wouldn't want to buy it. My point being that the Falcon Wing Doors are in that category: took a while to get right, will take even longer for them to be widely adopted, but in the meantime the Model X will be the outstanding best seller for the high end child-seat demographic.
phigment
Member
242 -> 204 happend in the first half of Jan.. those short interest numbers are already available. Second half of Jan consists of drop from 202 -> 196 (188 if you include the valley low).
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