Agreed, I watch my '17 and '18 call prices daily and IV seems to be dropping. Have used the opportunity (including today) to buy up more and bring down my cost basis. If we continue to get the run-up before the 31st like I think we will, I think I'll be in pretty good shape.
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Agreed, I watch my '17 and '18 call prices daily and IV seems to be dropping. Have used the opportunity (including today) to buy up more and bring down my cost basis. If we continue to get the run-up before the 31st like I think we will, I think I'll be in pretty good shape.
I suspect the new short thesis will soon be that TSLA is tracking wheat.
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The big question on my mind right now is if the broader markets continue to be positive, how high can TSLA go prior to the March 31 Model 3 reveal? I'm thinking the next big resistance point of around 230 may be the top.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Actually, I think this picture has been there now a few MONTHS now. Am I wrong?
pz1975
Active Member
I have reservation #58 for Canada (production). Just got invited today to configure my Model X! No delivery date yet - it says it will be based on configuration options. Very good sign that they will be starting deliveries in Canada soon.
Looking at the wayback machine it was changed between September 27th, 2015 and October 1st, 2015. So basically he changed it near the X unveiling if not on that very day.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Same here. I have EU production reservation #5 and was invited to configure last week. Definitely less gap between US and both EU and Canada now with the X.
Pity about the US dollar vs. Euro/NOK/CDN - it's an expensive car now for us. But my TSLA holdings have been doing extra well thanks to the forex so I guess all-in-all it's not to bad. Problem is I refuse to sell TSLA stock now...
Also, I personally will wait until April to configure, I want to see if/when the 100 kWh battery becomes available.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
pz1975
Active Member
Agree - much more expensive now! I am going to wait too but I don't know how long I can be patient...
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Not sure if you intend on waiting in hope of changing forex rates or if you mean possibly waiting for a bigger battery (like me).
I thought some more about this: maybe they'll seriously consider revealing (announcing) "el cien" (100 pack) earlier than originally planned due to wk057's info leak. That could actually lead to pretty serious Osbourning though... Or at least postponing of high-ASP high-margin sales.
Thumper
Active Member
Johnson Research says on Microsoft Money app that $210 will be a major hurdle. They suggest a retreat to $140. I'm long long TSLA as regulars know. What do you all think of their analysis?
There would need to be a reason for such a deep retreat. With recession worries lessening, the broader markets aren't likely to plunge and lead to such lower trading for TSLA in the near future, and the news about Tesla, particularly about the Model X ramp-up, is positive. Although we members of this forum are well-aware of the positive development with Model X ramp this past week, the majority of small TSLA investors are not. I'm thinking we get another upward kick as news stories about Model X ramp-up progress make their way into the mainstream. I just don't see much reason for going down as such a positive event, Model 3 reveal, looms on the horizon and as the momentum for TSLA is upward, not downward.
MAcro headwinds can certainly recur at any time but absent those I see evidence of X ramp, model 3 reveal and reservations as being positive catalysts moving into March 31st. Now, if we get another 5-10% run up I can't rule out 'sell the news' effect, especially if there is any issue with Q1 delivery numbers. (I doubt)
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Is this a TECHNICAL analysis driven or VALUE driven prediction? Your writing suggest it could be based on (purely) technicals? If so you believe or not - that's the nature of TA.
mejojo
Active Member
I wonder if they think it will be a "more major" hurdle than the 2 times in '14 and 3 times in '15?
Thank you for the translation. This section interested me:
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Harald Krüger: This is a prototype as you can see from the glass, not a production vehicle. If you look at it exactly, it´s a prototype and not a production vehicle.
Interviewer: But as far as the concept is concerned?
Harald Krüger: No comment.
Interviewer: No comment - oh well. It is the product of the competition, after all.
Jochen Rudat: Appreciation looks differently.
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I don't understand what Rudat meant by that phrase.
But I think Kruger's comment about it being a prototype was very rude, and inaccurate. And then he refused to say anything when asked for a comment. It never hurts to be nice.
Don´t think they´ll announce it earlier. Is think everyone would have expected a 100 some time - and even now we don´t know for when the update is/was meant. O.k., so now it´s sooner rather than later kind of. Maybe in series with Model 3 reveal, Q1 ER? If it was meant for that soon, wouldn´t make sense to me to make it even sooner. I think such a rumour just adds to the hype anyway, even if it is pretty obvious it´s true.
I wonder why they did already upload those pics to all cars, as my understanding is they have small updates all the time. And after they announce it, they´d still have to build the cars - or not?
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