Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Ulmo]

I just put in my reservation at the local store. He said there must've been a line of 200 people there. It took me all of two minutes to do the registration. I checked my bank account and the money was already out of it. By my estimates, Tesla is pulling in $100,000,000 - $300,000,000 in m3 res money by tonight, and those funds should settle in to their accounts by early next week.

 

[Hogfighter]

It's possible that the SP fell when some bots picked up on the Sweden story, then quickly reversed course when a human read the article.

 

[Crowded Mind]

I reserved my Model 3 at the Highland Park, Illinois store. A product specialist said at least 200 people had been there. It looked more like 300 to me when I left around 10:30 am CDT, a half hour after the store opening. An employee monitoring the queue said a lot more were at the Grand Avenue store on the near northside of Chicago, Illinois. I then drove for 15 minutes to the store at the Old Orchard Mall in Skokie, Illinois. Before 11:30 am CDT a product specialist told me there had been about 160 so far. They'll be open until 9:00 pm CDT and expect more during evening hours.

The person in front of me in the Highland Park queue drove down from Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The one behind me drove from Madison, Wisconsin. Tesla stores are outlawed in Wisconsin. A Highland Park product specialist anticipated that the online reservations this evening would far exceed all of those made in stores.

I was at Old Orchard. I got there 30 minutes early and was 75th in line. The line about doubled by the time I made it in, so I can validate that ~160. I left around 10:45. An employee that I assumed was the store manager shared that Tesla was expecting 100k reservations in store today and another 200k online. From his phrasing, it sounded like this was a Tesla estimate, not his own. But who knows. I would be surprised if online reservations were not more than 2x in store. 100k in store is probably close to where it will finish around I think, maybe just below. I'm surprised the stock isn't moving more than this.

 

[SBenson]

Interesting for a direct comparison with Apple, here's the last line of the article:

"Tesla’s announcement comes the same day as Apple is releasing its iPhone SE, which doesn’t seem to be drawing such lines. There was a line in front of Apple’s store in Dusseldorf, Germany, but that was only because there’s a Tesla showroom next door."

We are witnessing a historic milestone. Tesla becomes the new apple, while apple itself fades away...

 

[aznt1217]

I wouldn't go that far SBenson, but this is a historic day because it's a day when we really declare war on the ICE. The question is who will win?

I'm surprised we didn't break through the $240 point. We'll see how tonight goes.

 

[hershey101]

I read some of the crazy comments here and wonder, do people really know how the stock market works? "thousands of people are lining up for putting refundable reservations so the stock should go to 300!" Uh no.... That's not how the market works... We aren't at $250 (whatever $230) because of X/S. It's always been about the 3 and BEYOND! If you think we should go to 240, 250, 300 whatever, just because, then please, stop investing... seriously...

 

[larmor]

It's possible that the SP fell when some bots picked up on the Sweden story, then quickly reversed course when a human read the article.

Then Tay, the microsoft AI bot, caught on fire...

 

[The Blue Owl]

The silence on CNBC about the Model 3 launch is deafening. They are repeatedly showing Tim Cook paying a surprise visit to an Apple Store for the iPhone SE launch, though.

Way to miss the point, CNBC.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Fairly massive bear attack just now. This volatility is making my head spin.

Market participants selling before the news rather than after it? Expectations are higher than a Falcon 9 going into space, based on the lines at the Tesla stores. There is a lot riding on the Model 3 tonight.

Based on Franz von Holzhauzen's interview with Wired Magazine in Germany, I expect Model 3 to be a solid design, but it's still a wild card until the sheet is pulled back and the metal is revealed.

 

[larmor]

Market works by pricing without taking into account company fundamentals, mission, revenues, and real people making real compelling widgets, for which people will pay scrape up change in their sofa to lock in, sight unseen.

Market is now decoupled....

I read some of the crazy comments here and wonder, do people really know how the stock market works? "thousands of people are lining up for putting refundable reservations so the stock should go to 300!" Uh no.... That's not how the market works... We aren't at $250 (whatever $230) because of X/S. It's always been about the 3 and BEYOND! If you think we should go to 240, 250, 300 whatever, just because, then please, stop investing... seriously...

 

[Crowded Mind]

I read some of the crazy comments here and wonder, do people really know how the stock market works? "thousands of people are lining up for putting refundable reservations so the stock should go to 300!" Uh no.... That's not how the market works... We aren't at $250 (whatever $230) because of X/S. It's always been about the 3 and BEYOND! If you think we should go to 240, 250, 300 whatever, just because, then please, stop investing... seriously...

Demand is currently being indicated to be higher than even most bullish projections. I don't understand how a person who has worked through the meaning of the numbers we are seeing today could not view this as a positive for the stock. It is a major de-risk and confirmation of the investment thesis. This is important. And in my opinion, not priced in.

 

[Fallenone]

Reserved mine around 9:30 am after the store opened 30 min. I arrived at 7:15, was ~60 in the line. When the store opened there were about 150 people. I'm in Santa Barbara and the population density is quite low compare to the big cities. Therefore the line exceeded my expectation by a long shot.

 

[Julian Cox]

Fairly massive bear attack just now. This volatility is making my head spin.

Happens every time like clockwork including the last hour or so of trading before the 2013 ER calls that triggered a short squeeze.

Been chatting with Johan about this a week ago.

 

[aznt1217]

I read some of the crazy comments here and wonder, do people really know how the stock market works? "thousands of people are lining up for putting refundable reservations so the stock should go to 300!" Uh no.... That's not how the market works... We aren't at $250 (whatever $230) because of X/S. It's always been about the 3 and BEYOND! If you think we should go to 240, 250, 300 whatever, just because, then please, stop investing... seriously...

Totally feel you on the valuation argument, but you're looking at record high short interest based off the argument that Tesla has demand issues now and in the forseeable future which... today should have proven those arguments silly. Then you have Tesla energy which still is being neglected in the valuation due to the understated nature of the business. I was calling people crazy when we were at $50 and they were clamoring for $150. The company is significantly different at this point and is basically fulfilling what it was meant to do.

The valuation is only as good as its inputs.

 

[austinEV]

Schwab just solicited me to lend them TSLA shares. Just 3%, nice try buddy.

 

[BobSk]

I wouldn't go that far SBenson, but this is a historic day because it's a day when we really declare war on the ICE. The question is who will win?

I'm surprised we didn't break through the $240 point. We'll see how tonight goes.

Just my view, breaking $240 is not necessarily a good thing for long-term investors. The stock will reach several thousand in 10 years. Low price is beneficial for investors who keep adding.

 

[Lessmog]

I read some of the crazy comments here and wonder, do people really know how the stock market works? "thousands of people are lining up for putting refundable reservations so the stock should go to 300!" Uh no.... That's not how the market works... We aren't at $250 (whatever $230) because of X/S. It's always been about the 3 and BEYOND! If you think we should go to 240, 250, 300 whatever, just because, then please, stop investing... seriously...

I get a feeling of dejavu all over again. Agreed, that's not how the market works, by fulfilling people's wish on the strength of a new news. But the market also doesn't work by correctly counting the important details, as that might mean actual intellectual work from the specialists who prefer to fall back on formulas. And that is where this forum fills an important need by collating information and discussion in order for individual investors to make better decisions overall. It gives us an edge, simply put. How we choose to interpret and use that information is up to each of us, and what we decide to risk on that basis.

And today, a BIG part of that information advantage comes from the in-person reservation numbers we can estimate.

JMHO, $.02, mind the gap, etc

 

[hershey101]

Demand is currently being indicated to be higher than even most bullish projections. I don't understand how a person who has worked through the meaning of the numbers we are seeing today could not view this as a positive for the stock. It is a major de-risk and confirmation of the investment thesis. This is important. And in my opinion, not priced in.

Demand was never the problem, and has never been the problem. If you think demand is the problem, you shouldn't touch TSLA at $250, at $200 or even at $150. The problem for buyers (people considering whether to invest at $180 or $250) has been about execution and fulfillment of promises. IF Tesla can deliver, then it's cheap at $250, if they can't it's not necessarily cheap... If you are short, and your thesis for being short at $250 is demand, you should have covered at $180 and $150 a few months ago, not gotten greedy. If you continued to be short, you wouldn't blindly cover now expecting a short squeeze, you would slowly unload your position over time. The point is, I don't see a short squeeze being triggered, and I don't see any reason for long term investors to gobble up shares at $250 when they can wait for a nice dip further down the road, and a clearer picture. Hence, I don't see any sort of upward pressure to shoot us up and keep us there for the near term until Tesla can show that they can deliver on their promises (ON TIME this time).

 

[Fallenone]

Totally feel you on the valuation argument, but you're looking at record high short interest based off the argument that Tesla has demand issues now and in the forseeable future which... today should have proven those arguments silly. Then you have Tesla energy which still is being neglected in the valuation due to the understated nature of the business. I was calling people crazy when we were at $50 and they were clamoring for $150. The company is significantly different at this point and is basically fulfilling what it was meant to do.

The valuation is only as good as its inputs.

Demand issues from the short side is for S/X, I personally haven't heard any bear stories about model 3 demand, competition stories, yes. The loudest voice from the bear's side for 3 is production time and cost. Both IMO are legit concerns for the bulls to think about, do some maths, then arrive with a conclusion before disregarding them.

 

[Citizen-T]

We need to keep in mind how slow the market is to pick up on Tesla news.

Demand issue may be put to rest for us, but we are at the very front-end of the information bell curve when it comes to Tesla. Model 3 news hasn't even made it to MarketWatch's front page last I looked. I bet that most people trading TSLA don't even realize that today is the day reservations started much less how well it seems to be going.