Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
gallery-1459487253-t4.jpg

Welp, I have to eat my words about no toteboard. I half think they "called an audible" and did it due to the impressive numbers.
 
  • Like
Reactions: FANGO
If ever there was going to be a Tsunami of Hurt 2.0---it should begin today. Tesla will need to follow this with reporting great Q1 delivery numbers then Q1 earnings. If they can nail the trifecta, we'll once again get to see the streets run red with the losses of the shorts.

Here's hoping.
That about sums it up why i have this big stupid grin on my face since Elon announced the 115k number.
 
Stifel James Albertine's "awestruck" comments via StreetInsider.com:

We are simply awestruck by the demand surfacing for the Model 3. While we have disagreed with traditional OEMs (comments circa 2008/09) and various investors (comments circa 2012-16) both of whom have questioned whether "demand exists" for electric vehicles, we had no idea the reservation orders would be this strong for the Model 3. We are actually disappointed, having been at various Tesla store locations yesterday, that we chose to wait for online ordering later in the evening.

However, as we attempt to shake off enthusiasm and hunker down to do some fundamental analysis, our focus shifts to production. We originally launched coverage of TSLA with a Hold rating as we saw considerable obstacles, both financial and physical, with respect to battery and vehicle production. While the Model 3 will harness learnings from the Model S and X production lines, it will ultimately require an entirely new, high volume, manufacturing line. We do not know at this point whether the vehicle will incorporate greater use of steel vs. aluminum, nor do we have a sense of expected battery pack costs at the time of production, which provides a foundation for our Model 3 gross margin expectations over time (see our comments below for further details).

Our $325 target price is predicated on a model assuming 200k units produced annually in 2020, which is substantially lower than TSLA's guidance for 500k units annually. The initial Model 3 reservations reduce our concerns with respect to achieving management's guidance at some point in the next 5-7 years, but given the complexity associated with vehicle manufacturing and the fact that TSLA has little incentive (besides investor appetite for delivery growth and GAAP profitability) to accelerate production at the expense of quality, protecting against the risk of a major recall. However, we think reservations defend our belief that demand exists and the Model 3 is "miles ahead" of the "competition" on various fronts, reiterate Buy.
 
What, exactly, would you do this morning if you were working on an EV over at BMW, or Volkwagen, or Audi? Personally, after throwing up in the toilet, I'd rip up everything we'd been working on and start from scratch.

Ain't no way other car makers can produce Model 3's level of performance and functionality anywhere near this price level.
 
What, exactly, would you do this morning if you were working on an EV over at BMW, or Volkwagen, or Audi? Personally, after throwing up in the toilet, I'd rip up everything we'd been working on and start from scratch.

This is in fact exactly what Audi did with the R8-etron after the Model S was presented.

There's always a risk of over-bullishness on a forum like this but I really do think and believe that there are going to be some board meetings in the next few weeks in the offices of big auto makers world wide where the atmosphere is one of beginning panic. We will see the result of this play out during 2016, with restructuring, announcements of new "Tesla Killers" and I wouldn't rule out "budding off" of new EV brand/divisions.
 
The Bid-Ask spread is crazy right now. $1?! The share price jumped $3 during this. If I had gotten in with the clairvoyance of God, I would have gained $2, or only 0.8%.

Clearly the better bet in hindsight was to go all in when it was lower yesterday and stay in. The close-to-current increase was 7.8%, and yesterday-low-to-current was 10%.

Being a novice, I'm going to copy my strategy of waiting for the market-open bear attack. Too bad I didn't have confidence to go all-in when the market was low at the close. But I had too much paranoia for the announcement spotlight.

By now, much of the confidence overcoming fear about the direction of the company must be priced-in. But there's also a fair bit of hype. What's the counterbalance? I totally figured this wrong. I'm about done with this experiment of trying stocks. I have confidence in the company but not in my understanding of the valuation given by the stock trading participants.
 
Last edited:
Pre-market volume is heavy - 325K shares traded so far, and TSLA is knocking at $250 level. There are spikes of volume on selling, presumably shorting attempts to keep the SP down which go as well as pissing against the wind exercise...

Snap1.png
 
  • Like
Reactions: darthy001
What, exactly, would you do this morning if you were working on an EV over at BMW, or Volkwagen, or Audi? Personally, after throwing up in the toilet, I'd rip up everything we'd been working on and start from scratch.

Ain't no way other car makers can produce Model 3's level of performance and functionality anywhere near this price level.
After Apple released iPhone, Nokia board had a meeting. Their conclusion was "don't worry, people will drop the iPhone to the ground and easily shatter the screen." I guess their brains indeed couldn't function at some moment. Now I think some car companies' management will think "not a big worry, 150k reservation is just 0.2% in the 80 million market." They will be missing three things:
#1. This is just the reveal part 1, the part 2 will bring it to a whole new level, that will make today's reservation holders supper happy and everyone else will join then.
#2. Sure iPhone only took 0.1% at the beginning. A superior product can continue to take more and more market share and take all the profit.
#3. The gasoline price will not stay this low for long.
 
  • Helpful
Reactions: SW2Fiddler
To all that have short term calls/lotto tickets/stock/leaps: This should be a good day.....and if we close over $250 today, there will be some margin calls Monday when EM will hopefully announce a beat on the 16K Q1 deliveries.

I feel like I've hit all the white balls now I just need to hit the Power Ball (short covering would do that).

As I said when I bought my tickets - it was a small amount and if it hit would just be fun and generate a little extra spending money. It more than accounted for the deposit I just put down on Model 3!
 
  • Love
Reactions: StephenM
There was a documentary about ship captains in disasters. Their brains usually shut down. They often abandoned ship before women and children and basically can't compute once events take over. Expect some bailing out by CEOs in 2019 when Tesla hits 500,000 annual sales.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.