Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Ulmo]

I'm having trouble seeing the Times and Sales trends because it's scrolling so fast.

The chart is easier. It still hasn't broken its 5AM-6:30AM Pacific Time hi and lo (except the downward candle flame at open).

 

[theschnell]

Who is selling here? Obviously some shorts, but who else? Given the volume, I would have expected a bigger rise in SP...

Edit: Sell the news?

 

[tanner]

I'm having trouble seeing the Times and Sales trends because it's scrolling so fast.

The chart is easier. It still hasn't broken its 5AM-6:30AM Pacific Time hi and lo (except the downward candle flame at open).

Yeah. So far it's not looking good.

 

[aznt1217]

Demand is still an issue.





April Fools.

 

[tanner]

Who is selling here? Obviously some shorts, but who else? Given the volume, I would have expected a bigger rise in SP...

Edit: Sell the news?

Right?

 

[tanner]

Demand is still an issue.





April Fools.

Get outta here

 

[Citizen-T]

Amateur hour.

 

[tanner]

Amateur hour.

rude

 

[theschnell]

Wow, just signed in to my brokerage account. I had set limit orders on most of my lotto ticket options. Many at 50% gain, one at 100% gain, and one at 300% gain. They all sold almost immediately at open. Dang. Guess I left money on the table. Oh well. Most of them were April 1 expiry that I bought yesterday. Guess I should be happy to get out of them. I was really just trying to get my money back as the price action has been good but less than I hoped. Luckily the rest can ride, because I am more than break even now.

 

[BobSk]

Who is selling here? Obviously some shorts, but who else? Given the volume, I would have expected a bigger rise in SP...

Edit: Sell the news?

There are lots of near term option buyers who don't convert to long shares. When they close these option positions with a profit, that's essentially selling tons of shares. (The counter party - market makers buy back these call options at a loss, but they simultaneously sell their long positions to remove risk, overall they win too). Market makers initially bought those long shares in order to sell covered calls...... This is one of the reasons why stocks rally BEFORE events and drop on/after the events.

 

[Julian Cox]

Tesla short interest hits record high

Any strategies for someone sitting on cash this A.M.?

OK if I had seen your message a bit sooner I could have been a bit more helpful about the dip in the first five to 45 minutes of trading. The one Johan and I were debating a week ago, but it's still there so.....

I said this dip probably wouldn't get better as an entry than the de-risking dip immediately prior to the event on the 30th to 31st March and so far I have done OK with calling this stuff.

Anyway, suggest picking anything that looks kind of like a bottom somewhere between here and $230 and buy it hard at a fair guess. At worst IMO you need to hang on a week for a flood of analysts to go loopy with upgrades and falling on their pre-anouncemet swords in the hope of snagging a fundraiser. You also have to take a chancer on the Q1 deliveries being at least acceptable to minor beat between now and a couple of days time - but that I think that is reasonably solid (92% confidence level) on the basis that on this occasion rather than ruining the vibe Elon would have signed a personal guarantee of payment for the in-transit balance of the quarter himself if there was any chance of a miss - which there probably wasn't anyway.

 

[Citizen-T]

rude

Sorry, I don't understand. People were asking about the price action, I was reminding the group that big players don't trade in the first hour of the day. If Fidelity was going to buy up a billion shares they wouldn't be doing it right now. This phenomenon is commonly known as the "Amateur Hour".

Perhaps I should have used more words, but we've covered this topic dozens of times in this thread.

 

[BobSk]

Amateur hour.

I agree with you. The first hour should be called Amateur hour. However, if you are experienced and familiar with technical indicators, the first hour is the most profitable day-trading period.

 

[aznt1217]

Sorry, I don't understand. People were asking about the price action, I was reminding the group that big players don't trade in the first hour of the day. If Fidelity was going to buy up a billion shares they wouldn't be doing it right now. This phenomenon is commonly known as the "Amateur Hour".

Perhaps I should have used more words, but we've covered this topic dozens of times in this thread.

Correct me if I'm wrong here. I'm noticing with TSLA key inflection/acceleration points are 11 PM and 2 PM EST. For some reason.

 

[Ulmo]

Sorry, I don't understand. People were asking about the price action, I was reminding the group that big players don't trade in the first hour of the day. If Fidelity was going to buy up a billion shares they wouldn't be doing it right now. This phenomenon is commonly known as the "Amateur Hour".

Perhaps I should have used more words, but we've covered this topic dozens of times in this thread.

The first time someone posted that, I was one of the targets, and I appreciated the information (even though it obviously had a negative emotional component -- who cares?!). Thank you, whether you were rude or not.

 

[Xpert]

I am buying more shares here at $240 while waiting for delivery numbers. I think it will hold $240 unless macros get in the way. Last night was a huge de-risk with 150k reservations and counting. Imo This will give them more room to negotiate for the china factory very soon.

 

[Citizen-T]

I agree with you. The first hour should be called Amateur hour. However, if you are experienced and familiar with technical indicators, the first hour is the most profitable day-trading period.

Yeah, I think maybe "Amateur" isn't the greatest word anymore as many pros do day trade, but too much history now, it isn't going to get renamed. I guess what it really means is small fish versus big fish. The big players trade later in the day.

 

[CatB]

Okay, nice jump after-market, but looks like price bobbled down to 241. Since I want to pick up a few more shares before the tsunami of hurt 2.0, may I request your guesses on lowest price and time of lowest price up to ER? I understand macro events are unpredictable, but I'm hoping y'all don't mind pulling out your crystal balls for a little fun hypothesizing.

And, following jhm's approach (which I've been doing for the last 2 years), reverse question - if I want to donate appreciated shares in the next 2-3 weeks to some charities, any guesses on when price will be highest? Now? Just before ER? just after ER?

And back to off-topic: Still stoked about the reveal - Master Plan Milestone for sure; can't wait to configure my Model 3 and anticipate its arrival (just like for my S 3 years ago); and totally incensed at VADA's behavior in Richmond yesterday.

 

[Citizen-T]

The first time someone posted that, I was one of the targets, and I appreciated the information (even though it obviously had a negative emotional component -- who cares?!). Thank you, whether you were rude or not.

I must have missed that. I don't spend much time here anymore, sorry if this has taken on a negative connotation in my absence. Personally, I wouldn't take any offense to being called an ameteur since that is true---I don't make a living trading stocks. I'm definitely an amateur.

Again, I wasn't targeting anyone individually, just pointing out that we won't know what the investment community really thinks until we get past this first hour. The real market movers just don't trade during this time.

 

[Johan]

OK if I had seen your message a bit sooner I could have been a bit more helpful about the dip in the first five to 45 minutes of trading. The one Johan and I were debating a week ago, but it's still there so.....

Yeah, I sold all short term calls I had riding from yesterday at market on open, including weeklies, ITM April calls and OTM June calls. One has to stick to one's guns.

I guess the price could settle here around $240 until Q1 ER. Alternatively we'll see strength as the day goes by with a close nearer $250. We could see jumps if Tesla/Elon were to post high reservation figure(s) throughout the day.