Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[McMuggets]

I also think it is a good idea for people in this thread to look at this for perspective. Look at Tesla, King of the Hill.

March 2016 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales In US Hit All-Time Record High

 

[sub]

I don't know if there has ever been this good of an opportunity to buy on a dip after a "miss". Like I've said multiple times, the short theses is based on two "facts", Elon is a liar and Tesla is run by idiots.

I won't name names, but look back at the last 5-10 pages to the negative posts, they all Suggest that dishonesty is the reason tesla missed on guidance.

300k model 3 reservations, full year guidance reaffirmed, run rate of 750 model X....or they are lying about everything. After all, if they are lying about model X issues and ramp, how can you trust model 3 numbers?

Glad I didn't increase my position yet this week, but I plan to tomorrow. Unfortunately I have limited cash/margin available
In my account and I doubt I can get more money in there fast enough to take advantage of this gift.

 

[maoing]

The biggest takeaway from Q1 report is not the blah blah old excuses for X delay instead of how comes only 12K model S delivered compared to 17K model S delivered just in last quarter, while wait time keeps almost the same if not declining. TM/EM definitely knows how important of Q1 delivery report which is back2back with M3 reveal. If they can deliver 17K (S+X), then we'll see 265+ tomorrow and subsequent capital raise would be much easier. In order to meet or be closer to guidance, even a lot of flawed beta model X was delivered, so it's their very best interest to exhaust model S backlog as much as possible for Q1. Anyway Q1 has passed and I'm sure Q2 demand would be strong due to large ramp up of X...... 2nd part of 2016 will be interesting.

There is no sugar coating it. The delivery number is very bad. Much worse than I had imagined possible, especially with them not mentioning anything about such a possible miss in the conference call when they would have had clear visibility on this possibility. I am actually more or less ok with their delivery number on the model X. We already knew they had ramping problems this quarter and we already know things are better now. But what concerns me more is the Model S number. That's barely higher than Q2 2015 and much lower than last quarter. Not just that, average waiting times are at a historically low since at least 2015 so they have not a lot model S orders in the pipeline. I believe the 45% growth in orders they mention in the press release is due exclusively to model X reservation holders confirming their orders. The model S desperately needs a refresher which will mean spending additional R&D making extraordinary cash flow numbers just that little more difficult next quarter.

 

[maoing]

but model S number is declining from Q4 by about 1800.

I also think it is a good idea for people in this thread to look at this for perspective. Look at Tesla, King of the Hill.

March 2016 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales In US Hit All-Time Record High

 

[mejojo]

What we know is that Tesla has produced 750 cars for the last full week of March, and we don't know that this is a stable run rate. We don't know that they won't stop production in April/May because there is another problem lurking. Now, I don't expect that, but I didn't expect January/February either. But really, I expect most problems are resolved.

Reason I am being pedantic, is for the sake of another, less-experienced me, to not get overenthusiastic. It's a free country (most of them are, anyway) and options are not outlawed, and it's likely someone else will get too aggressive like I did once.

I've heard few well intentioned advices about dangers of options, but pointing those dangers, while not pointing dangers of impreciseness of human language, and trusting blindly is useful only so much. And, yeah, I feel reformed, as I have very few options left now, and they're deep ITM leaps, with almost no time value...

All that is not a rational response...it is paranoia. FYI, I'll guess somewhere between 98% and 100% of people who get involved in options experience what you have experienced. It's the price of playing the game.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Missing guidance because of delivery counting and an arbitrary quarter-end date is not a big deal overall. I'll bet we will hear in the Q1 release notes or conference call that 16,000+ vehicles were produced, but just didn't actually get into their owners' hands is all. Not a big deal and I have a lowball bid in for the same # of shares I sold today for $249 at market open tomorrow that hopefully hits.

Well, it does have som significance. The quarterly delivery numbers are a moving target, so producing at 750/week at the end of March only means they may be able to hit their delivery target in Q2. If the plan was to deliver 16k, they should have built something like 17.2k, so it's a miss regardless of where you draw the lines.

However, I do think the internal target for full year production was 90k, and the 80-90k range was just to be on safe side, having gotten burned on guidance before. With a 1.2k miss, and assuming production rates are now where they thought they would be at this point in time, the full year internal target might now be ~88.8k. That's not bad - they market is likely expecting 80k or less.

 

[mmd]

The above, of course, is irrelevant to the parts issues described in today's press release and calculation of the production rate. ...

Please accept my apologies! I agree, the second part was unrelated. I removed it quickly, but guess you were quicker than that to read it anyhow. At least, your estimate was a fair attempt with numbers, and I also thought the deliveries will be very close to 16000.

 

[Fallenone]

Updated my eps estimate. Now it stands at -0.26 c. Mostly at the mercy of how much OpEx increased QoQ. If no increase in OpEx QoQ, a positive non-gaap eps might even be possible.

 

[Papafox]

The biggest takeaway here is how come only 12K model S delivered compared to 17K model S delivered just in last quarter while wait time keeps almost the same if not declining. TM/EM definitely knows how important of Q1 delivery report which is back2back with M3 reveal. If they can deliver 17K (S+X), then we'll see 265+ tomorrow and subsequent capital raise would be much easier. Q1 has passed and I'm sure Q2 demand would be strong due to large ramp up of X...... 2nd part of 2016 will be interesting.

Maoing, in the 4th quarter of 2015 Tesla produced 14,037 Teslas (S + X, a new record) and delivered thousands more. Tesla could deliver thousands more Teslas in Q4 than they produced because they were pulling vehicles out of the pipeline. The pipeline wasn't fat enough to do that again in Q1. Even with all the issues with getting Model X parts in Q1, Tesla delivered more vehicles than were produced in the record 4th quarter. It's a simple matter of Model X parts issues reducing the total planned production of S + X, and having no fat pipeline to pull from to beef up delivery numbers, as was done in Q4.

 

[maoing]

Papafox, definitely it's another plausible explanation. I wouldn't argue for that. IIRC, 2015 Q1 delivery marginally beat 2014 Q4 delivery, stock soared from 190s. With 2016 Q1 miss, it doesn't bode well for 2016 full year guidance IMO. We'll see. But I'm still optimistic for the SP until next capital raise or as late as Q2 ER.

Maoing, in the 4th quarter of 2015 Tesla produced 14,037 Teslas (S + X, a new record) and delivered thousands more. Tesla could deliver thousands more Teslas in Q4 than they produced because they were pulling vehicles out of the pipeline. The pipeline wasn't fat enough to do that again in Q1. Even with all the issues with getting Model X parts in Q1, Tesla delivered more vehicles than were produced in the record 4th quarter. It's a simple matter of Model X parts issues reducing the total planned production of S + X, and having no fat pipeline to pull from to beef up delivery numbers, as was done in Q4.

 

[sundaymorning]

Gotta love Maoing and his conspiracy theories

 

[ssq]

Predictions for tomorrow?? Many folks here are expecting a dip and a reversal..I hope to load up some common stock based on pre market action. My expectation is tomorrow opening bell gives us 234.

 

[sundaymorning]

but model S number is declining from Q4 by about 1800.

Replaced by over 2,000 X. Did you expect X to appear out of thin air and deliver itself to customers?

 

[sundaymorning]

Predictions for tomorrow?? Many folks here are expecting a dip and a reversal..I hope to load up some common stock based on pre market action. My expectation is tomorrow opening bell gives us 234.

My prediction is that we go down to the 220s, to be tested and defended... Not sure when we get a reversal but ultimately we go back up when news or reviews come in. Prepare yourself for market manipulators as they will chim in like manipulators seen here (won't mention names); however, we should get some very on point analyst helping the bull case. Bears seem to think Elon is lying through his teeth, this is perfect, let them think that way and we'll light them up Q2.

European trading is currently between $236-$237

 

[CyberDutchie]

Larmor, what battery did you specify? If 70kwh, then I would be concerned. If 90kwh, we're just seeing the prioritization scheme being used. Remember that there are no Model X vehicles at most Tesla stores to demo. Once the reviews come out and once the X goes into stores the wait will increase. Many X reservation holders have never seen the vehicle in person but have heard stories of problematic Xs coming off the assembly line. It'll take many months of people with Mulder's experience to calm the concerns of some reservations holders. You should consider this a great time to buy an X.

People don't realize what an exceptional and unique car the X is. In the one week that I've driven it, I realize just how much of a head turner this is. So many people look at it in awe, smiling, rolling down windows to ask a question, wanting to take pictures. Like the early days of Model S all over again. And I happen to love the attention. Dare I say chick magnet?

 

[Papafox]

Papafox, definitely it's another plausible explanation. I wouldn't argue for that. IIRC, 2015 Q1 delivery marginally beat 2014 Q4 delivery, stock soared from 190s. With 2016 Q1 miss, it doesn't bode well for 2016 full year guidance IMO. We'll see. But I'm still optimistic for the SP until next capital raise or as late as Q2 ER.

Personally, I think Q2 ERl6 is on track to be an epic moment in this investor's life and the catalyst for a massive short squeeze, if it hasn't already occurred earlier in the summer. What's the main difference between the end of 4Q15 and 1Q16? Answer: At the end of 2015, Model X production was barely moving with both parts issues and production line modifications needed. Now look at the end of 1Q16, with 750 Model X vehicles a week rolling off the assembly line. We no longer need 1200-1400 Model S cars produced per week. Once Model X production reaches parity with S production, 1000 Model S cars a week will be fine. Production numbers in Q1 almost surely exceeded deliveries because in a normal quarter the pipeline must get bigger, not smaller (more vehicles in transit, more Tesla stores in need of demo cars, etc.). So, even with the Model X parts headaches of Q1, Tesla produced another record number of vehicles. Now that the production lines have been tweaked and the parts issues are resolved, it's time to let the lines roll and deliver some extremely impressive numbers. Add income from Tesla energy this year, and we're going to see revenues that can make even the most grumpy CPA smile.

 

[mrdoubleb]

amen to that

Personally, I think Q2 ERl6 is on track to be an epic moment in this investor's life and the catalyst for a massive short squeeze, if it hasn't already occurred earlier in the summer. What's the main difference between the end of 4Q15 and 1Q16? Answer: Model X production was barely moving with both parts issues and production line modifications needed. Now look at the end of 1Q16, with 750 Model X vehicles a week rolling off the assembly line. We no longer need 1200-1400 Model S cars produced per week. Once Model X production reaches parity with S production, 1000 Model S cars a week will be fine. Production numbers in Q1 almost surely exceeded deliveries because in a normal quarter the pipeline must get bigger, not smaller (more vehicles in transit, more Tesla stores in need of demo cars, etc.). So, even with the Model X parts headaches of Q1, Tesla produced another record number of vehicles. Now that the production lines have been tweaked and the parts issues are resolved, it's time to let the lines roll and deliver some extremely impressive numbers. Add income from Tesla energy this year, and we're going to see revenues that can make even the most grumpy CPA smile.

 

[mmd]

283 Inventory Model S listed for sale. 125 cars with 50 miles.
http://www.ev-cpo.com/

 

[All Your Bases]

Did anyone notice this little phrase in the PR: "Model X in version 1" ?

Could there be an announcement of a "V. 2", coming anytime soon ? Maybe a more conventional design on doors and seats ?

 

[Crowded Mind]

Did anyone notice this little phrase in the PR: "Model X in version 1" ?

Could there be an announcement of a "V. 2", coming anytime soon ? Maybe a more conventional design on doors and seats ?

I don't think so. I viewed it as acknowledgment that they should have held some things back and integrated them over the course of time in later versions.