Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Johan]

I'm surprised by the strong support here around yesterday's close. Volume isn't shabby either. I really thought the shorts would have a field day today. I'm wondering who bought this tiny dip - institutional investors? It will be interesting to see the next update on institutional ownership. And even more interesting to see the report on short interest (interest as of close March 31st, to be posted after market closes on Monday 11th of April next week).

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I have to think their cash flow is going to be a big focus and with 1200 cars missed there will be a lot of noise. I guess it depends on how much confidence they can drum up for Q3/Q4 FCF positivity, which is an issue in an of itself. They'll likely increase capex with new ramp plans by Elon so I'm starting to think they won't be FCF positive at all. Maybe some more seasoned folks here can provide better insight than me though.

If this didn't put TSLA down, nothing else will. This miss had chance to trigger massive profit taking, scare of Q1 results, all sorts of FUD etc. It didn't.

This is market being teenage girl in love, saying to TSLA, young, good looking stud: "we forgive you your Q1 miss, now, please, tell us more about the future".

Onward and upward.

 

[AlMc]

Well, even Cramer is telling people not to 'short' TSLA at this time

Cramer: Tesla shorts, watch out

 

[Fallenone]

Were you just assuming very conservative results and is that why you excluded Tesla Energy Sales in your estimate?

So maybe with this included, it could get us to + EPS territory.

Yes I was trying to be conservative. Would like to be surprised to the upside instead of the other way around. But if they have several hundreds of million one-time cost like 2015 Q4, nothing will help. I don't think they will though.

 

[techmaven]

Well.. I still say that the Model X may have been excessively complex, but some of that complexity arises from trying to design and build a great 200+ mile range SUV/CUV battery electric vehicle that seats 7. The FWD, as troublesome as the birthing process has been will be a competitive advantage going forward. Are there things to tweak about the vehicle still? Yes, I think there are. And it sucks to be one of the early supporters that took all the risk to know their vehicle is in the Fremont factory black hole as they struggle to get them right.

Going forward... the Model X debut in China, to me, is the real game afoot. While we thank California and the left coast in general for their appetite for Tesla's, that fact is well established and already baked into the stock price. At the moment, I think a lot of investors have discounted Tesla in China and Model X has the chops to change all of that. Even with the economic issues wrt China in the past year or so, that market still hungers for foreign brand techno gadgets and there's nothing more that can juice up that market than the prospect of arriving in the latest and greatest techno-lust electric vehicle with billionaire doors.

 

[madodel]

Who says Elon doesn't have a team of people who contribute to his Twitter? I know I would if I were in his position and I worked 80+ hours a week as the head of two different companies.

I think Elon does his own posting, but that isn't what I was talking about at all. He is making promises for things on Twitter, and once those are made, Tesla has to deliver now. Even if it just isn't realistic, or there are supplier problems, or uncooperative robots, people have come to expect the unrealistic from Tesla. They have to underpromise and over deliver, not the other way around.

 

[FredTMC]

Well, even Cramer is telling people not to 'short' TSLA at this time

Cramer: Tesla shorts, watch out

Oh hell. If Cramer likes it now, we're screwed. Stock is going to zero

 

[Thumper]

We could use a sumptuous chauffeured second row for the Chinese market.

 

[tanner]

I think Elon does his own posting, but that isn't what I was talking about at all. He is making promises for things on Twitter, and once those are made, Tesla has to deliver now. Even if it just isn't realistic, or there are supplier problems, or uncooperative robots, people have come to expect the unrealistic from Tesla. They have to underpromise and over deliver, not the other way around.

Ah. Sorry, I was reading too quickly. Thought you meant he should get off Twitter and focus more. Hahaha

 

[austinEV]

I think Elon does his own posting, but that isn't what I was talking about at all. He is making promises for things on Twitter, and once those are made, Tesla has to deliver now. Even if it just isn't realistic, or there are supplier problems, or uncooperative robots, people have come to expect the unrealistic from Tesla. They have to underpromise and over deliver, not the other way around.

There is no way his twitter is delegated. Who would/could *committ* to features or ordering policies the way that twitter author is. It would be more work for Elon to approve a media persons' responses than do it himself.

 

[Zaxxon]

I'm surprised by the strong support here around yesterday's close. Volume isn't shabby either. I really thought the shorts would have a field day today. I'm wondering who bought this tiny dip - institutional investors?

I'm with you. I had expeced a slight miss on deliveries and had a small lot sold at $248 which I bought back in after-hours at $242, then initially doubted myself as it dropped to $236. Didn't want to push my luck picking up pennies in front of the train, as they say, hence the quick buy back on the initial drop. But I figured we'd putter around today in the $230s, not be flirting with a green day 2.5 hours in...

 

[Ulmo]

Ok, I decided "On The Close" fills are a slight risk in case there's a run-up near the end of market. I cancelled an On The Close order at OptionsHouse, but it required manual call-in to cancel because their system had a bug that made it think a Market order can't be cancelled (the bug being that it didn't realize that it was being delayed to the close).

 

[Johan]

I'm with you. I had expeced a slight miss on deliveries and had a small lot sold at $248 which I bought back in after-hours at $242, then initially doubted myself as it dropped to $236. Didn't want to push my luck picking up pennies in front of the train, as they say, hence the quick buy back on the initial drop. But I figured we'd putter around today in the $230s, not be flirting with a green day 2.5 hours in...

We all misjudge the short term from time to time. Patience is a virtue. One grand in hand is better than two calls in the red. A short and his money are soon parted. A watched stock never squeezes. Don't count your puts 'til they expire. It's no use use crying over a spilt dip. One short's loss is another longs gain. NEVER MIX YOUR LIQUOR!

 

[AlMc]

We all misjudge the short term from time to time. Patience is a virtue. One grand in hand is better than two calls in the red. A short and his money are soon parted. A watched stock never squeezes. Don't count your puts 'til they expire. It's no use use crying over a spilt dip. One short's loss is another longs gain. NEVER MIX YOUR LIQUOR!

So what are you mixing over there in Norway?

 

[dmckinstry]

Well, even Cramer is telling people not to 'short' TSLA at this time

Cramer: Tesla shorts, watch out

Isn't that when we're supposed to get scared? ;wink

 

[Blip]

Seems like yesterday's close is today's ceiling. Is there a technical term for this? Triangle-breakout?

 

[Johan]

So what are you mixing over there in Norway?

Well, for one we never mix business and pleasure because old habits die hard and there's a time and place for everything.

Enough wisdom for one day now. Back to the stock. I notice it seems it's always greener on the other side of the opening price.

 

[Fallenone]

Seems like yesterday's close is today's ceiling. Is there a technical term for this? Triangle-breakout?

It's called filling the gap. Where the stock will go depends on if we go up or down after filling the gap. 3/24 opened lower but filled the gap and went up, since then we had ~30 dollars on the upside. Today's verdict is still not out yet.

 

[FredTMC]

Seems like yesterday's close is today's ceiling. Is there a technical term for this? Triangle-breakout?

Yeah. Tight consolidation for over TWO hours at $247. This is nuts!
Big forces at work. I'm expecting a big breakout or breakdown before EOD

 

[Ulmo]

Is this $247 ceiling seeking price behavior what happens when someone places a huge limit sell order at $247?