Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Irishjugg]

Add the rest of the context, why take risk of loading a car up with gadgets.
Adding gadgets does not improve an EV . An Electric suv along the lines of model s would
Have been sufficiently impressive and sooner to market and cheaper to produce .
Hubris does not pay. A young company cannot afford expensive mistakes, and model
X Has been an expensive venture.

Expensive venture? sure (though much less expensive than the cost to market for new cars at big 3 autos).
Mistake? That absolutely remains to be seen. If it makes money it's not that big of a mistake just based on delay.

 

[Irishjugg]

Likewise, surprised at the markets infinite wisdom. I am still disturbed
By the model X ramp and the trauma of the 100 point collapse earlier this year.

The 100 point drop was herd mentality nonsense almost entirely attributable to the market freaking out about falling oil prices. I had thought that was obvious then, but by now it and be crystal clear.
Maybe 20-30 of those Tesla points were model x related, the rest was market stupidity (thanks btw for the money, market)

 

[doggusfluffy]

Government subsidies may be gone before most buyers can get a Tesla Model 3

"At this pace, they're going to burn through the available credits," said Alan Ohnsman, spokesman for TrueCar.com, an automotive pricing and information website.

Jeremy Acevedo, pricing and industry analyst for Edmunds.com, said if there is no subsidy extension, "there's no chance that everybody on this list is going to be able to attain the federal rebate."

 

[Electrifying]

Long history in short
VW is the first company which provided to build factories in China back in the 1970s while GM just turned down the request by the chinese goverment to start local production. And VW sold 3.7M of its 10M vehicles in china in 2015. But it still suffers from the 50:50 JV policy.
Volkswagen „autogramm“ - Die Zeitung für die Mitarbeiterinnen und Mitarbeiter der Marke Volkswagen

VW received many unfair preferential treatments over the years while doing unethical things. They had huge quality issues (broken axles and plates while driving etc) that would certainly requires huge recalls in any other country. Instead VW walked away with no punishment. They had the gall to ask customers to come into the shop to apply some screws to strengthen those defective axles/plates ! I am not surprised at all at this due to the prevalent corrupt business climate in China. And we know the questionable ethics at VW don't we (also google Siemens bribery for another example).

The young China (people born after 1985)'s mindset is getting closer to Western thinking everyday thanks to Hollywood. But the people in power today (born before 1980) probably still value guanxi(relationship) and underhanded dealings. Luckily, it's the young generation who revere Tesla the most. Tesla does not have to compromise its ethics to do well in China.

 

[All Your Bases]

Breaking news: Hubris is now fired. His responsibilities should have been taken over by Nemesis, - but he failed to come to work yesterday.

 

[Johan]

Breaking news: Hubris is now fired. His responsibilities should have been taken over by Nemesis, - but he failed to come to work yesterday.

I heard he had a severe case of Narcissism.

 

[bookfast]

Welcome. It would be fun to hear about anyone that actually backed the sock-guaranteed trade with a $50 - $100 OTM calls and made off with 10,000% or better.

Note. I am expecting another opportunity this year to emphatically call a gross time and price bound (what I would term) short term price movement of this kind of magnitude. That was just the first one. Ideal entry for the next one isn't yet - at this range I would guess July 10th through Sept 29 - not ready to sock guarantee it or price target it yet!

First time poster here. I got in with some 230 Jan17 calls with stock @ 150, and they are now up 360%. Hadn't been following this board so closely at the time so didn't know about the sock guarantee

At this point IMO there is still too much upside to sell yet, but I would appreciate any opinions on when to get out of ITM LEAPs.

Julian it sounds like you would suggest exiting before the summer.

 

[BornToFly]

To add some validity to the 750 Model X/week production rate at the end of March. My car, VIN 47XX is in production per my DS.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I am assuming this is a joke right? Nvidia has been naming their chips after famous scientists/inventors for quite some time. This Architecture goes all the way back to slightly before the Geforce 8 series (2005/2006) before Tesla Motors had even shown off their first product.

Yea, it was actually not - I am claiming ignorance here, as computer hardware is not my area, and I did not do mandatory Googling before posting because P100 looked so Model S-like...

 

[tanner]

Hmmmm... So the price is down slightly in pre, is this a good time to buy ahead of new Model 3 res # announcement today?

 

[tanner]

Also, I didn't think what happened yesterday was a short squeeze, but was it? via forbes
Tesla's Rally Feels Like A Short Squeeze

 

[30seconds]

A particularly awful idea, but hey at least tesla is being offered a factory site in France

http://jalopnik.com/france-is-offering-tesla-an-old-nuclear-power-plant-for-1769262652

 

[Drax7]

The upward trend continues until we a sell off on bullish news,
Then profit taking comes into play. That's the typical price action pattern

I repeat bullish news

 

[Johan]

Andrew Left of Citron up next on Bloomberg. According to the anchor "still short on Tesla". LOL.

Live TV - Bloomberg

 

[Krugerrand]

Electric Windows, simple mechanical handles work just fine.
Given the obesity epidemic, these help.

Right. So, you can't name a Model X 'gimmick'.

 

[tanner]

Andrew Left of Citron up next on Bloomberg. According to the anchor "still short on Tesla". LOL.

Live TV - Bloomberg

Get that guy out of here lol

 

[SBenson]

Also, I didn't think what happened yesterday was a short squeeze, but was it? via forbes
Tesla's Rally Feels Like A Short Squeeze

No it wasn't. Every time stock price goes up, everybody calls it a squeeze. It really doesn't work like that.

Normally, on a day to day basis, shorts are very good traders. They short more when price goes up, they cover some when price goes down. This would be the same as good short-term traders on the long side. You sell some as price recovers and buy more when it dips. They just do it in the opposite order.

A real squeeze happens very rarely and under extreme situations. Very similar to how some longs capitulate at the very bottom in a severe downturn. Think of people dumping out their 401K's in Mar 09. Something like that but on the other side. Kind of like in early 2013 in TSLA. The price zoomed up so much that shorts were forced to cover. Either because of margin calls or simply because they couldn't handle the pain anymore. This is very rare.

Coming to specifics, looking at daily short-interest data published by MarkIt, since the reveal event on Mar 31st, there have been three trading days up to yesterday. Each of the days, short-interest went UP (as prices went up) but nothing crazy, it went up a tad bit each day. So this is the "normal" short action - the day to day stuff from above paragraph.

 

[Julian Cox]

First time poster here. I got in with some 230 Jan17 calls with stock @ 150, and they are now up 360%. Hadn't been following this board so closely at the time so didn't know about the sock guarantee

At this point IMO there is still too much upside to sell yet, but I would appreciate any opinions on when to get out of ITM LEAPs.

Julian it sounds like you would suggest exiting before the summer.

I expect the current run will creep up to a new ATH and overshoot it maybe to the early $300s, $330 tops before everyone agrees its overbought on hype. Could easily be a textbook sell in May and go away. So yes.

Then the main short-squeeze run of the year will follow IMO - from July with epic progress on fundamentals as the underpinning. That's the one I'm interested in.

 

[tanner]

No it wasn't. Every time stock price goes up, everybody calls it a squeeze. It really doesn't work like that.

Normally, on a day to day basis, shorts are very good traders. They short more when price goes up, they cover some when price goes down. This would be the same as good short-term traders on the long side. You sell some as price recovers and buy more when it dips. They just do it in the opposite order.

A real squeeze happens very rarely and under extreme situations. Very similar to how some longs capitulate at the very bottom in a severe downturn, think of people dumping out their 401K's in Mar 09. Something like that but on the other side.

Coming to specifics, looking at daily short-interest data published by MarkIt, since the reveal event on Mar 31st, there have been three trading days up to yesterday. Each of the days, short-interest went UP (as prices went up) but nothing crazy, it went up a tad bit each day. So this is the "normal" short action - the day to day stuff from above paragraph.

Okay, thanks... Kind of what I thought, but I don't know - thought Forbes was more credible

 

[Drax7]

Right. So, you can't name a Model X 'gimmick'.

Panoramic windshield for stellar guidance will come in handy in the southern sky when on safari.