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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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As someone who has both made and lost a lot of money in options, I'm currently very conservative as the market has returned to something akin to fair value. snip

I'm not smart enough to use the term fair value until now thanks to your post. Since this stock hit $205 for the first time a few years ago I've avoided future purchase. That changed with the Model 3 phenomenon after we bought 2 places in the line after 2 1/2 hours. With what little we could I bought 12 shares at the opening with a $250 limit last Monday. Closed by less than a dollar including charges. Our wealth manager had a hissey as they used to say in the black community. "You've already got 30 percent or more invested in that one stock." He's right, of course, but I have a low income so little damage can possibly be done.

Glad to hear its at least akin to fair value now. Thanks, that means a lot coming from experienced investors like you.
 
You might be interested in a Charlie Rose Interview with John Kerry. It is totally off topic so I will shortly post a more extended review on the long-term and macro threads.

John Kerry; Tina Brown

ICE manufacturers have ignored the possibilities of technology and at their peril the implications of machine learning— even micro funding and advanced assessment of demand as the M3 “reveals.” Technology has changed the game in international relations as well. Kerry eloquently points out why relations were by and large conducted among states in the last century; social media has changed the game this century. Now we have but a few examples of the earlier model thus requiring a far more subtle yet comprehensive and multilateral approach in our diplomacy.
 
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It's the weekend, and maybe this can be of help to some of our new posters, so here is my testimony.

In 2013, I had outsized returns with stock only. I went all-in in the 30s, and rode it all the way up to 190. Then TSLA entered a painful decline, triggered when a couple of car batteries experienced exothermic reactions after encountering road debris. I eventually succumbed to abject fear, and managed to sell everything at the exact bottom around 120, realizing a 40% loss.

I made it all back in spades in the next spring, on the back of the run to 265 with an extremely aggressive option play. I promptly concluded I was a genius, and proceeded on what I thought was a certain path to another 10x by trading only options. That plan, which was beautiful and perfect, led to something closer to 3x, but in the other direction. I bled even more over the next year, still trying to recapture the magic of option fireworks, like a crack addict chasing the high of their first hit (and with equally beneficial results).

Then it dawned on me that when experienced traders say "don't play with options if you don't know what you're doing", they say it for a reason. That reason was staring me right in the face from the bottom line of my brokerage account.

For the next 6 months or so, I slowly learned how to be more conservative, less emotional, and most importantly to stop indulging in the kind of day-dreaming that protagonists of all lottery ads in history like to engage in. Visualizing 3x, 5x, 10x gains when buying calls blinds you to the downside, and is the addiction mechanism underlying destructive gambling behaviour. It distorts thinking beyond the capability of amateurs (like me) to detect it. The question is, when those calls expire out of the money, what do you learn from it? How do you learn? And how much will you have to lose to start to really learn? The kind of self-examination you need to do to improve your performance is insanely hard to do, doubly so when you do it alone, with nobody helping you as a non-involved, objective evaluator. There is a reason why Bobby Axelrod (a high-powered hedge manager in the TV series Billions, for those who don't know) employs the services of a top-notch psychologist for himself and his trading team.

Options are powerful weapons. In the hands of the inexperienced trader, they are all-but-certain to turn into weapons of mass destruction of capital. For the reasons illustrated above, the worst thing that can happen to such a trader is to make a lot of money with the first few option trades.

One can detect the heartbreak in some of the posts in this thread when TSLA loses 3% in one day (which is very common with TSLA). "It's at 255 now. Scratch that, it's 250. Will it go back up today? By next week? Should I sell now? Or should I buy more? What do you guys think?"

If you're asking those question in that manner, you are in way over your head. I've said it before, but it's worth repeating: if trading stocks is like ballroom dancing, option trading is like mixed martial arts. If you are a beginner, you should stay out of the octagon. If you get in anyway, expect to bleed and be knocked out on a regular basis. Pain can be a tremendous teacher if you can take it, but 9 times out of 10 you're just going to get killed.

I Don't know about others, but as an example from my own life of how much the painful newbie options lesson costed me when I started. I remember it well. $35 000 USD in year 1.

This is what you should expect to lose going in. If you are not willing to pay this fee, do not use options.
 
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Yeah but AAPL wasn't always this boring. I remember when people thought I was nuts to be long Apple. That was before the iPod, the iPhone, the iPad, ... I expect more from Elon and TM in the future. I look forward to TSLA being boring in 10 or 15 years.

I wouldn't call Apple boring. Investors are simply waiting for Apple to clarify what the heck Apple is doing with its cash pile. Not to mention raising the bar for living and working standards for the employees of its suppliers.

Apple doesn't get anywhere near enough credit for the work it is putting into making its operations, and by definition the operations of its suppliers as clean (green) as possible.

Also, the idea that Apple isn't innovating (as some analysts appear to supposedly believe) and isn't investing billions of dollars in multiple ways is beyond absurd.

Apple has the potential to be one of the largest sources of capital for the shift to sustainable energy.

Apple could invest $50-$100 billion into Tesla factories, make a ton of profit from the investment, and make it possible for EV's to replace gasoline vehicles entirely by 2025.

If most countries introduced a "cash for clunkers" type program that only supported Electric Vehicles, in addition to EV incentives MANY people would immediately switch to Electric Vehicles. This scenario would also cause the price of gas to skyrocket, resulting in every person driving an EV by ~2025. :cool:
 
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Made a lot on LEAPs, when special events occur (f*res, latest absurdity to 150). Pretty much lost every single time I dove into the shallow pool of short term options.

For the most part, I would have made off like a bandit writing covered calls each week. But I just can't get myself to do it!
 
Folks looking for a good squeeze should watch SolarCity this coming week. The share price has been climbing even as shares have become costly to borrow. Put/call parity is broken as April 22 ATM calls have IV at 0.75 and put IV at 1.20. So buyers are pushing up the price as desperate shorts are failing to suppress the price.

Get popcorn.

 
I dipped my toes into the ocean that is options trading recently with TSLA. It worked out ok but i don't have any contracts as of now.
For a stock with a lot of momentum like TSLA, i wonder if it is better to just trade the common stock on momentum movements. Buy on the dips etc.
If the stock takes an unexpected turn south...just wait it out.
The only downside is requiring more capital in order to make it profitable/worthwhile.
 
I Don't know about others, but as an example from my own life of how much the painful newbie options lesson costed me when I started. I remember it well. $35 000 USD in year 1.
For me that was the small cap stock trading lesson. :rolleyes: The fact is there are a hell of a lot of ways to lose a hell of a lot of money in the investment markets.
 
Most trades are now made on computer. If you are telling your computer which trades to make, you are competing with someone who has his computer tell him what trades to make and his computer has 20 years of experience. This is not a level playing field.
 
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Anyone have an opinion on whether the Model 3 will have sufficient autopilot hardware for fully autonomous driving?

Back on topic - I'm hoping for a short term surge in share price as my new job may force me to liquidate my position (no single stocks allowed) :(

I guess ETF's with TSLA exposure the best you can do?

ETFs with Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Exposure | ETF Database

Solar stocks are a bit beat up right now, I suspect due to misunderstandings of possible SUNE contagion, but that helps de-risk a TSLA short term slide? Conversely, if we still don't get out of this strange oil/solar correlation, then TSLA gains would be diluted.
 
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Most trades are now made on computer. If you are telling your computer which trades to make, you are competing with someone who has his computer tell him what trades to make and his computer has 20 years of experience. This is not a level playing field.

It's not a level playing field for a multitude of reasons, but I submit that many people on Wall Street materially misunderstand Tesla and TSLA. There in lies the opportunities.
 
I wouldn't call Apple boring. Investors are simply waiting for Apple to clarify what the heck Apple is doing with its cash pile. Not to mention raising the bar for living and working standards for the employees of its suppliers.

Apple doesn't get anywhere near enough credit for the work it is putting into making its operations, and by definition the operations of its suppliers as clean (green) as possible.

Also, the idea that Apple isn't innovating (as some analysts appear to supposedly believe) and isn't investing billions of dollars in multiple ways is beyond absurd.

Apple has the potential to be one of the largest sources of capital for the shift to sustainable energy.

Apple could invest $50-$100 billion into Tesla factories, make a ton of profit from the investment, and make it possible for EV's to replace gasoline vehicles entirely by 2025.

If most countries introduced a "cash for clunkers" type program that only supported Electric Vehicles, in addition to EV incentives MANY people would immediately switch to Electric Vehicles. This scenario would also cause the price of gas to skyrocket, resulting in every person driving an EV by ~2025. :cool:
Boring in a technical sense (and in this respect, Apple was just an example that is often used as a comparison point).
I agree there is a ton of potential there as an investment, but any movement in AAPL is generally much slower than TSLA, so it is a less tempting name as a short term trade.
Tesla is now where Apple was n years ago, hence the approach on the 2 today can (I dare saying *should*) be different.
All this said, I would describe myself as a strong long which has found in the options the way not to transform in a weak long... if that's make any sense :)
 
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It's not a level playing field for a multitude of reasons, but I submit that many people on Wall Street materially misunderstand Tesla and TSLA. There in lies the opportunities.
Correct... if you're in it for the long term. Wall Street's misunderstanding of Tesla only matters when they mispredict the news; every time actual news comes out and Wall Street got it wrong, the price adjusts.
 
I don't remember if they have formally announced it but I think that is the aim, I wonder if it may even come standard as a safety feature. The 3 release date coincides pretty much with estimates of when they would have the full autopilot ready. Maybe that will be part 2 of big reveal.

autopilot: sure. But true driverless is harder than 2 years R&D in my opinion. For example, the streets in Georgetown (in Washington DC) are too narrow for the parked cars and two lanes. As a result, there is this odd dance that occurs when you face another car from the opposite direction. You drive part way and jump in front of a driveway so that you can get out of the way of the center of the road and let the other car pass.

My point is that there are a massive number of weird corner cases, so there will have to be a lot of learning before true driverless autonomy. It is more of a spectrum where autopilot will work in a larger number of scenarios.
 
Apparently there's worry and panic in some corners.
Daimler Shareholders Worried by Tesla Model 3 News - Gas 2

Interesting article on the pressure from stockholders on Daimler I found on the Model 3 forum. Has many of the arguments we have discussed here about the difficultly for ICE manufactures to transition.

I have a MB B-Class. Good luck to them. The dealer thinks I am a crazy nut for leasing their car. Tried to talk me into a ICE many times before I leased the car. The MB app does not work for monitoring charging (confirmed by other owners) and there is no way to control the charging (timed). It's a decent car with range well above what is advertised, it is just very poorly supported. I just can't see how they will will make the transition.
 
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I wouldn't call Apple boring. Investors are simply waiting for Apple to clarify what the heck Apple is doing with its cash pile. Not to mention raising the bar for living and working standards for the employees of its suppliers.

AAPL is boring in regard to the way the stock isn't manipulated as much anymore like TSLA is. It used to be attacked by people just like TSLA is today. Not sure if they were paid shills like the ones who attack TSLA with lies now. TSLA has to contend with the oil companies and the rest of the auto industry who play even dirtier than Microsoft. AAPL had mostly shorts looking to steal a few bucks by floating rumors about Steve Jobs dying or Apple not having "one more thing" any more.
 
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