Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[JBRR]

P100D finally coming ?

edit : Jonathan beat me by a few seconds !

Thoughts on the double _ _ ? Hint of something beyond ludicrous as well?

 

[ludicrousspeed]

Thoughts on the double _ _ ? Hint of something beyond ludicrous as well?

It's an Apple emoji and that's just how it's designed - nothing underlying there. I think 100kwh models announced within the next month.

 

[dc_h]

It's an Apple emoji and that's just how it's designed - nothing underlying there. I think 100kwh models announced within the next month.

Within the next day? Not in design studio yet.

 

[Crowded Mind]

That emoji,

, is used to represent perfection. Doesn't necessarily mean that a 100 kWh battery is imminent, but it would certainly be odd for Tesla not to realize that people would assume that given the P100D code. If the intention was to hint at that, I agree that it is odd to not have a face lifted model in the photo.

 

[tinm]

More Tesla shareholders must be doing as I have done, and have placed GTC (good-till-cancelled) orders to sell at 50% above the current price. That should make those shares unavailable for borrowing by short sellers.

Yep I put 90% of my TSLA shares into GTC with a Limit of $900. Eat that, shorts.

 

[jhm]

That emoji,

, is used to represent perfection. Doesn't necessarily mean that a 100 kWh battery is imminent, but it would certainly be odd for Tesla not to realize that people would assume that given the P100D code. If the intention was to hint at that, I agree that it is odd to not have a face lifted model in the photo.

Hey, it's like a Powerpack on wheels. What could be better than that!

 

[Curt Renz]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't more people selling short be better for the eventual squeeze? Or is this just a keep the price higher by removing short ammo type play?

The latter. People selling short depresses the share price. If you want a lower entry for buying TSLA before a short squeeze and feel confident about your timing, then you may not mind more short sellers. But if you are already fully invested, then there is no need or desire for a roller coaster ride.

What really fuels a short squeeze is a vast majority of shareholders unwilling to sell at anything near the current price. Then short sellers would have to bid the price higher and higher in order to buy the shares necessary to cover their short positions.

 

[Xpert]

I'm seeing a lot of news chatter about Lithium being a good investment due to increased battery making for EV's, but I recall posts here saying that Lithium is easy to produce, with a lot of competition, sources, etc., so it is not really a great market for unbounded profitability, since it is so competitive.

Part of the discussion here is that the business sources for Lithium is the tip of the iceberg of physical sources; there's plenty of Mother Earth supply of it, and plenty of ways to get at it, and so the way I see it, the market availability just represents whatever has been skimmed off the top at the moment using many various means, and that will continue to get more and more efficient, not less efficient, at least for a while, unlike oil, which has been exploring ways to get at more difficult locations for a while now to arbitrage war and other threats. In fact, that's one of the core advantages of EV's to begin with, as I have claimed many times.

So, in essence, my opinion is that lithium availability is not a plus for lithium suppliers stock-wise (except of course for successful execution by successful lithium providers), but is a plus for successful EV companies due to its good availability.

Not an unbound opportunity here, but lithium demand is undoubtdly growing fast. Spot price has gone up quite a bit due to demand, Tesla GF will probably consume all Lithium currently produced when model 3 is out.

The misconception here is that since Lithium is everywhere, anyone can mine it and saturate the market with it. This is not true, due to percentage of the stuff Containing Lithium. Efficiency is key. Think in terms of oil when it was at $30, the Saudis still make $$$ vs. US frackers who were losing $$$ and would go bankrupt due to cost of production if oil stays below $30.

Right now it seems to be all about which Lithium companies owning how much of the efficient mines. This is due to future expected demand, especially from the Upcoming EV race. That said, i'd rather wait a bit for the Tesla model 3 effects to die down a bit more before jumping in.

 

[jhm]

 

[generalenthu]

Some interesting speculation on Reddit that all facelifted model S cars out there are 70 kwh and all 90 kwh cars are going to be software upgradeable to 100. If so, that extra revenue in q2 could be a nice boost to showing a positive cash flow.

 

[Fallenone]

Some interesting speculation on Reddit that all facelifted model S cars out there are 70 kwh and all 90 kwh cars are going to be software upgradeable to 100. If so, that extra revenue in q2 could be a nice boost to showing a positive cash flow.

Interesting... So new S90 buyers pay several $k and get the 100kWh like auto pilot?

 

[vgrinshpun]

Here is a link for the latest Andrea James note (April 1, 2016) on TSLA with PT of $500

-----------------EDIT---------------

After noticing that Tesla Energy product pricing mentioned in the note ($350/kWh for PowerWall and $250/kWh for PowerPack) could use an update, I decided to try Tweeter to communicate with AJ, pointing out that current pricing is $470/kWh, linking to my post about TE gross profit being potentially equal to the TA gross profit, and suggesting to explore this further on the ER call.

 

[generalenthu]

Interesting... So new S90 buyers pay several $k and get the 100kWh like auto pilot?

Pretty much. I would guess about 4k for the upgrade, if you use the powerpack pricing as a benchmark.

 

[Fallenone]

Pretty much. I would guess about 4k for the upgrade, if you use the powerpack pricing as a benchmark.

$400/kWh seems too low to me. The 20kWh from 70 to 90 is priced at nearly $700/kWh

 

[sundaymorning]

Here is a link for the latest Andrea James note (April 1, 2016) on TSLA with PT of $500

-----------------EDIT---------------

After noticing that Tesla Energy product pricing mentioned in the note ($350/kWh for PowerWall and $250/kWh for PowerPack) could use an update, I decided to try Tweeter to communicate with AJ, pointing out that current pricing is $470/kWh, linking to my post about TE gross profit being potentially equal to the TA gross profit, and suggesting to explore this further on the ER call.

Very nice read, AJ gets it. Im ok with a $500 PT though.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Very nice read, AJ gets it. Im ok with a $500 PT though.

I am totally OK with $500 PT as well, and have a lot of respect for her. She definitely gets it, and doing it for a very long time. I just would like her to ask a couple of questions about the strategy of TE pricing during the ER call

 

[Cattledog]

Good catch, they are simply assembling there now according to reports, and same reports say cell production in late 2016. So I'd suggest cell production overseas at Gigafactory 2 in late 2018. I'm going to go back and update my post, thanks. (But I can't cause the clock ran out on me .)

 

[xhawk101]

made their plans crystal clear. What, specifically, do you envision the company doing as a "show

Bbb;;ff g BBC: NC (gg

people

 

[geneclean55]

Good catch, they are simply assembling there now according to reports, and same reports say cell production in late 2016. So I'd suggest cell production overseas at Gigafactory 2 in late 2018. I'm going to go nack and update my post, thanks.

Are there efficiencies associated with currently assembling them at the gigafactory instead of Fremont? I am thinking in terms of q1/q2 earnings report.

 

[Cattledog]

Are there efficiencies associated with currently assembling them at the gigafactory instead of Fremont? I am thinking in terms of q1/q2 earnings report.

Ultimately yes. Do they exist today? Unsure. I believe they are in the process of converting Fremont to all production sans battery, but right now it might be just Tesla Energy at Gigafactory. If they'd have their party there and announce things it would make life easier!