Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[drinkerofkoolaid]

There are not currently any analysts who expect Tesla will sell 500,000 vehicles in 2018. Many are still not expecting Tesla can sell 500,000 vehicles in 2020. This significantly changes the equation for any honest analyst, with a reasonable view of what Tesla can accomplish.

If Tesla needs to do a capital raise, it will be to accelerate production. This will be a benefit for investors and will not be a negative. Investing in future production is fundamentally different from Burning through cash.

 

[hoang51]

Major Bear arguements: No way Tesla would deliver 500,000 cars in 2020. Model 3 will be late.

Conference call: "Internal target for Model 3 July, 2017." Placing order now will probably get you car in 2018.
From Q1 letter: 500,000 cars in 2018.

BOOM!!!! Shorts are TOAST!!!!!!

Not really. They're going to bank on at least one capital raise that would sink the stock. After hours stock value doesn't indicate shorts covering quickly. Furthermore, more spending needs to take place, so... Tesla will be bleeding more money and need more money to make things happen.

 

[Discoducky]

Let's be clear. Tesla is not messing around with the Model 3. You don't say 100K to 200K in 2017 without really being serious about it happening.

This is just blowing my mind. I can't imagine the feelings inside of Tesla at this moment. How many minutes are there in a year? Answer: 525600. So the run rate at the end of 2018 should be about 1 car per minute...every minute...of everyday...drops mic

 

[JRP3]

100,000-200,000 Model 3 in 2017!

Seriously, I was counting on 2018 at the earliest to get my 3. Better start saving my pennies!

 

[ludicrousspeed]

Very weird response to the $190/kwh question. Any chance that they're not currently there?

 

[tinm]

"Uh..... just next question."
- Elon Musk

Nice way of shutting down that one analyst pushing too hard for battery costs.

 

[Johan]

This conference call will go down in history one of the greatest ever. Julian: boom.

So DTU I guess it was

 

[Papafox]

Wow, there is some great information in the ER! I will definitely buy some extra shares tomorrow morning, the stock will probably rise for the coming days.

But a warning for all (including myself): don't become to bullish! After the last CC a lot of people were yelling that a new ATH was just a few weeks out and some members are already starting again today. I don't say that it won't happen this quarter, but I think there is a big chance that the market first wants to see a quarter where the production problems are under control before the stock price skyrockets.

You're absolutely right. After the 4QER, we jumped from about 141 to 265 a few months later. Investors should be careful not to expect greater improvements than this.

 

[Fallenone]

Very weird response to the $190/kwh question. Any chance that they're not currently there?

That anal yst from UBS is just annoying.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Very weird response to the $190/kwh question. Any chance that they're not currently there?

Tesla will probably not say precisely what its cost kWh is for a long time. Doing so might violate certain agreements Tesla has with any suppliers. It might also cause Tesla to lose a lot of leverage when negotiating terms with its suppliers.

 

[dirtyofries]

MORE VERTICAL INTEGRATION. YES.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Not really. They're going to bank on at least one capital raise that would sink the stock. After hours stock value doesn't indicate shorts covering quickly. Furthermore, more spending needs to take place, so... Tesla will be bleeding more money and need more money to make things happen.

Short sellers won't bail out based on talk.

500k/year units by 2018 is unbelievable, even to me. However, if Tesla somehow manages to be on track for this by late 2017, it will make the 2013 "Tsunami of hurt" look like a calm day on the shore.

A lot of sizzle today. Looking for steak next quarter.

 

[Earlian]

Did AJ already placed his Tesla-Mobility-question?

 

[Johan]

Take absolutely as many parts in house as possible. Otherwise the entire Tesla ramp is at the mercy of suppliers ability to ramp.

 

[BornToFly]

I LOVE THIS CALL!!!!!!!! Price targets have to go sky high after this!

 

[techmaven]

Almost done with the Model 3 design, production drivetrain was in use at the Model 3 unveiling. 6-8 weeks to design completion.

 

[FANGO]

'if you can make a human baby in 9 months, you can make a tool in 9 months, so thats our expectation'

 

[Johan]

That anal yst from UBS is just annoying.

Freudian or intentional typo?

 

[tanner]

WOW! The Model 3 is basically done... Production drivetrain was in the prototypes at the unveil & likely final production version ready for tooling by June, did I hear that right?

 

[Rafael]

"You can make a human baby in 9 months, so you can pretty much make a new tool in 9 months"

lol